rb
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Posts posted by rb
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They'll get a stern talking to. Maybe a slap on the wrist or two. It won't be anything really material or have long term effects.
I do hope they stop with the upselling nonsense. I'm tired of getting counseled every time I'm in the branch. No. I would not like a $30 a month chequing account! Thank you very much!
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Maybe there won't be a crash, instead the CAD$ goes from say 1:1 when all the homeowners bought their property to say 3:1. So they lose 2/3rds of their money but will still have their house. Not sure how inflation would affect financing though. If they step out of the country they will be shocked where their wealth went. But in this scenario, house prices can just remain flat or even increase. Most home purchases are ring-fenced into the CAD dollar I imagine? Any thoughts on this theory?
No way the CAD can fall that much. Canada actually has a real and productive economy should. Should CAD fall even a relatively small part of what you're calling far our exports would shoot through the roof which will stabilize CAD.
In addition declines in CAD do not alleviate the housing costs for Canadians and make Canadian real estate cheaper for foreign investors in their currency. So I don't really see how a CAD decline fixes a bubble. Unless you're talking about foreign investors getting scared shitless by currency mark to market.
Decline in the currency will probably be a result of monetary and fiscal easing to reduce the impact of a housing crash. (Like QE123.) The CMHC will need a bailout in a severe scenario. Housing gets propped up with ever lower interest rates. The government would probably want the effects to disperse through the currency rather than the real economy. Financially prudent Canadians take the hit in their C$ savings. (See Euro and GBP.)
Don't get me wrong. If/when this thing pops there will be a decline in CAD. Mainly from what you say - QE etc. But it'll be in the 10-20% range not anything close to the 70% that scorpion was envisioning.
If it goes full meltdown there will probably be somewhere around $100-$120B in credit losses the be shared between the banks, private mortgage insures, and CMHC. The banks are decently capitalized and CMHC actually has a fair amount of reserves. Undoubtedly a bailout or two will be required somewhere - you don't know who's swimming naked until the tide goes bout. But it won't be anything that the government can't handle.
The main downside will be that there will be a really shit economic situation for long while. A lot of people will suffer that conducted their affairs in a proper manner, did nothing wrong, and did not engage in any real estate speculation crap.
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Maybe there won't be a crash, instead the CAD$ goes from say 1:1 when all the homeowners bought their property to say 3:1. So they lose 2/3rds of their money but will still have their house. Not sure how inflation would affect financing though. If they step out of the country they will be shocked where their wealth went. But in this scenario, house prices can just remain flat or even increase. Most home purchases are ring-fenced into the CAD dollar I imagine? Any thoughts on this theory?
No way the CAD can fall that much. Canada actually has a real and productive economy should. Should CAD fall even a relatively small part of what you're calling far our exports would shoot through the roof which will stabilize CAD.
In addition declines in CAD do not alleviate the housing costs for Canadians and make Canadian real estate cheaper for foreign investors in their currency. So I don't really see how a CAD decline fixes a bubble. Unless you're talking about foreign investors getting scared shitless by currency mark to market.
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Hey look, it turns out it may not be lack of supply after all but elevated demand from foreign buyers/money launderers, speculators, and future demand brought forward by scared youth. Basically your run of the mill bubble with some Asian spices.
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What are your thoughts on investing in these bank stocks?
Big 5 Canadian banks are a cozy, protected oligopoly. They are able to extract outsized rents from the Canadian economy, and their oligopoly isn't going away any time soon.
On the con side, they are quite expensive at present. But that is only a relatively minor consideration; the elephant in the room is the state of the Canadian real estate market. Read this thread for some insight:
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/garth-turner-greaterfool/
This is the case. They are also extremely well run in general, and conservatively run. Right now they are expensive but they move in a trading range. Around Christmas 2015 they could be bought at multiyear lows.
Ireland's banking sector had about 25 years of similar out-performance before imploding and losing investors 99%-100% of their investment.
And this proves what exactly? Have you ever tried to get a loan or a mortgage from the big 5,6, 7 Cdn. banks? They are pretty rigourous.
This pretty much sums it up. They will probably take some hits when the real estate mess up here sorts itself out but they will be just fine in long term.
Also while in the US and other countries the financial space is more fragmented, up here the big banks dominate almost every space aside from life insurance. Banking check, wealth/investment management check, investment banking check, brokerage check, credit cards check. While some banks have been selling their insurance divisions TD remains one of the largest P&C insurers in the country.
By the way the banks' outperformace get even larger if you leave out CIBC where management team after management team can't help themselves from screwing up.
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Buffett these days plays his role of optimist statesman. He doesn't say anymore whether stocks appear cheap or expensive. He's just really positive.... super long term. One would be guided by Buffett's actions rather than word. If he thought stocks were cheap he'd be buying left right and center. Instead he's been sitting for years on a giant pile of cash.
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Today, many 'advanced economies' are behaving like banana republics and many banana republics are acting like advanced economies. Don't know what will happen to the dollar, but no doubt bailouts are highly inflationary unless somehow everyone gets taxed more. At 50% marginal rates, I can't see this happening. And while canada does have soft capital controls (e.g. departure tax) I'm sure money will find creative ways to leave if it isn't treated right.
Yes because the US had a real problem with inflation post 2008. ::)
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Anyone have an opinion on the CAD when this busts? I'm guessing it would drop as the BOC would have to print money to flood the market. Would it be prudent to hold cash balances in USD over CAD?
It's tricky because CAD can be a crazy currency. I've had a large short CAD bet for about 4 years because in anticipation of this. It worked out well.
Basically if this thing bursts BoC will probably have to step in with some serious easing. It'll hit the real economy as well pushing down on GDP. Both of these should in theory be bad for CAD. On the other hand CAD has been week for a few years now. Also Canada is an advanced economy not a banana republic -its currency has value. In addition if oil prices shoot up for some reason you could see CAD appreciate even with RE burst - nightmare scenario for GDP and BoC. I'm actually looking to cover some of my short CAD/USD in the high .60s low .70s.
In short I think that there is limited to no upside for CAD and some downside (maybe 10%-15%) but not as much as it once was. If you're heavy long CAD I'd diversify some from it. However at this level (0.74 USD) I'm not sure there's a very good case to be made for a crazy CAD short.
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And there is a post that is not tethered in reality, doesn't add anything, but does hit a lot of the buzz words.
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what I learned but the last US election is that PC can drive people to the edge.......
This is complete nonsense. Excusing Trump's election by "PC drove people to the edge" is utter bull crap.
At least if you said that white male entitlement drove people to vote for Trump, you might be a bit closer to truth.
We should not excuse misogyny, racism, homophobia, nationalism because their restriction supposedly drove someone to the edge. This is what the alt right racists want us to do. We won't surrender. We will not go back to the time when it was OK to denigrate people based on their gender, race, skin color or nationality.
And BTW this forum is becoming a swamp of alt right demagogues because of no moderation.
I am not EXCUSING anything. I am just try to reconcile the election. Cos I would've never in a million years guessed that Trump could win. Yes we have a lot of pissed off white people in this country. And I was trying to explain why. Calling white people racists is not productive and doesn't help us come to some middle ground where whites and minorities can share power.
Trump also got away with misogyny because women are pissed off too. They don't want to vote for educated upper class women who won't help them. The political system that helps minorities, LBGT are in effect taking attention away from the silent majority. If the dems want to win the next election they should take note. This is at least what I learned from the election.
Yes Trump is a royal a*hole but hell he can win the election, I learned something from that. It not about right or wrong, its about what works.
Firstly, I don't think that we should appease racists in the hope that the democrats are going to win an election. These people are disgusting and should be called out. I don't think that racists had much to do with the election since I don't think that racists previously voted for Obama. I also don't think that Trump created more racists - it's just that for some reason or another they felt comfortable sharing their views and opinions at a Trump rally.
Then we get to the topic of the angry white people. Yes, the American people (and not just them) have been getting the short end of the stick for a while. The white people are angrier than the minorities because the minorities are used to it but it's more a new phenomenon for the whites. Of course I don't know all the reasons why they feel angry, but it's not because of gays, regulation, ACA, Obama, or all the other nonsense. My theory is that it's growing income inequality. Allow me to elaborate.
First, there is a group of people that is truly fucked. These are people that have fallen to the wayside of trends and technological progress and for one reason or another cannot be retrained and redeployed in any meaningful way. You can put your coal miner in here, guy who worked at the screw factory, etc. These are economic refugees. They're similar to people who worked at Berkshire Hathaway circa 1970. Once those mills closed they were done. You could ease their pain but only through some kind of "socialist" program.
However, Trump voters were actually a fairly well off bunch. So what does a white guy in America making 80k a year is so angry about. Here is where income inequality comes in. Income inequality is usually framed in terms of what the rich are making vs what the poor are making, or how much money the the 1% makes. While those are fair points it masks reality. What most people don't realize is that income inequality is progressive. The higher you are on the income scale the higher the income inequality is and you see it. It's also been getting worse. In the past maybe the you flew coach and the rich guy flew business. But he was next to you in the security like at the airport and both were on the same plane. Now you get to fly coach and he flies private so he doesn't even share the same air with you. That's why Trump voters are angry.
This anger doesn't have anything to do with PC. But PC can be annoying. So let's scapegoat that, give people something to rail against. When you're angry it feels good to yell. Moreover the whatever solutions would help things would be quite wonky and don't lend themselves well to slogans - but I'm not a marketer. On the other hand, gather a bunch of angry people, say Make America Great Again, let them vent and yell and they feel a little better. That is a marketing strategy. That works in the moment even though you will do nothing for them.
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I don't think the foreigners are bothered by taxes or forms to fill out. I wonder what would happen NOT if foreign rules come into place like they did, but something as simple as JUST enforcing the tax law and all the grey areas, which seems so lax probably just tightening that up would have had the same effect without having to put any new rules in place. This would transfer the benefit to those who actually pay their taxes versus those who have money and feel they are above the law.
This is already happening. New task force last year to do exactly what you're saying.
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Ok, so on my street in a Toronto suburb 2 semis sold in the past week. Both listed and sold withing the week for about 870k. They were about 1250 sqft and 33 years old.
Let's now look closer at what this means. According to the rules, the minimum payment for these houses would be 62K. On top of that you'd have to pay around 14k in land transfer tax and 29k for mortgage insurance. Add in a couple of extra closing costs and you need about 110k upfront.
Now if you get a 5 year variable mortgage (25 year amortization) at 2.45% the mortgage payment is about $3,600 per month. Add in $100 for insurance and $300 for property tax and you would need $4,000 after tax per month just to carry the minimums for there house. This is without utilities, or any maintenance/repairs which any homeowner knows are more than you'd expect. However you have to quality for a 5 year fixed @4.64%. Which means that you need pretax family income of about 180k - and you can't have payments on other debt larger than 14k.
All of this for a small semi at current interest rates. Totally reasonable and affordable right?
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I'd like to know which Canadian markets are at ~55 price to rent ratio (the bottom end of that bar). The propertis I own now are probably 150x price to rent ratio.
That's the lowest point in price-to-rent in the past 27 years. Not current.
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All I am asking for is data. Statistical evidence indicating that since Trump things have really taken a turn for the worst at the border in terms of uncalled for detention and rejection since that is what you guys are claiming.
If you guys are that superior in your arguments as some are claiming to be, then you should have no problem producing this evidence. And no, highlighting from the media the case of two to three people having been detained, questioned does not count since I could give you that many that have had their cell searched, detained for hours for no apparent reason other than the officer suspecting that they were working in the U.S. without paperwork well before this last election.
Cardboard
Well actually what you're asking for is impossible because the US doesn't track what you're looking for so there are no statistics. I mean in the US they track everything except for how many people are turned away, how many people are searched/interrogated, how many people are detained. Funny that eh.
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ScottHall
"boring"?? this is real life. this is happening in your country. if you want to post something substantial, I'm all ears. And I will either agree or disagree with you. But "boring"? Surely you can do better than that.
you guys are wasting each other's time in a screaming match and nobody is going to change anybody's mind
this is boring
So go read a book, watch a movie, do whatever entertains you.
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RE "98% of our officers do the best job they can", did they do that under Obama too? if so, what is your problem with immigrants? or are these all new officers appointed by your new Administration?
Interesting that his stats imply that there are some 1200 psychos in TSA and CBP. Not to mention the ones that think they're doing the best job they can but are wrong. One wonders though why one doesn't hear about these type of stories coming out of let's say.... Germany or.... Japan. Cause God knows when someone think German of Japanese border guards they don't picture warm and cuddly.
I just wish I possessed Rat's thought process. Life would be so much easier.
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In fairness I did say I stopped there!
FWIW, I was denied entrance on a business trip into Toronto years ago because I forgot my license. White, suit and tie, nothing in my appearance that suggest scoundrel. Shit happens; know the rules.
So you were denied access into the country because you had no identification at all. Yea I can see how your story is the same as all the other ones here. ::)
But since Toronto doesn't have a land border, you were able to get through security at an airport and board a place without ID?
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rb
There are thousands of Canadian Snowbirds who travel to Florida and Arizona during the Cdn winter. As more of this stupid, terrorist stuff keeps happening to innocent folks, more Snowbirds will be reluctant to go there. Just wait to see what happens to the Florida and Arizona economies who depend upon these thousands going there every year. What goes around, comes around.
Oh, I know and it's already starting to happen. Lately there has been quite a bit of airline capacity added between Canada and Spain, especially Barcelona and Malaga. You can be sure that there will be a chunk that won't appreciate the new treatment and the toughen up message and just go elsewhere. To get a feeling of Canadian sentiment: Toronto right now has a red hot real estate market where everything sells for insane amounts after bidding wars. But you can't sell Trump branded real estate.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/trump-tower-toronto-no-bids-1.4011755
But it's not just Canadians it's people from other places as well. US travel exports are significant.
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No evidence but I'm ripped with common sense. No one would be detained if they had proper papers. Guarantee it.
Maybe not detained/arrested. But held back, searched, personal/electronic data copied, made late, connecting flights lost. Just what everyone dreams of on a holiday. Being inconvenienced and treated like a criminal.
I'm pretty sure they know they're gonna act like dicks when they're already anticipating that people are gonna call the cops on them.
Sorry but i don't believe it. If a person has proper papers and they're not a retard when asked what the purpose of their visit is, they won't be detained. If you have any knowledge of this being incorrect, enlighten me.
Well for starters you can check out post 77 on this very thread. Do you actually read what people are writing or you just react and tell everyone to toughen up?
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No evidence but I'm ripped with common sense. No one would be detained if they had proper papers. Guarantee it.
Maybe not detained/arrested. But held back, searched, personal/electronic data copied, made late, connecting flights lost. Just what everyone dreams of on a holiday. Being inconvenienced and treated like a criminal.
I'm pretty sure they know they're gonna act like dicks when they're already anticipating that people are gonna call the cops on them.
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Proper papers like Canadian women with Canadian passports or Australian dudes with diplomatic passports?
As travel exports decline and profits go down and people loose their jobs are you gonna those groups to toughen up? Was there anything wrong with the previous screening procedures that made them inadequate and in need of changing? Aside from TSA agents having to think too much? God forbid that happens.
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Well it's already having an effect. Bookings to the US are down. I'm guessing that situation won't improve while stories like these keep popping up. Not such great news for travel exports.
Edit: On the other hand it looks like it won't be only foreigners the get to enjoy the new and improved airport procedures.
So get ready to savor the moment when the TSA guy cups your balls.
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Well I guess now it can happen to everyone. Apparently the head of Australian intelligence was held at LAX.
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I just read that in the past 5 years only 13 of 500 stocks in the S&P500 outperformed the index. My conclusion is that you either have to go hunting outside the index (microcaps etc.) or you have to increase your turnover to outperform. Going the microcap route is the easiest route to outperform with small AUM and at the same time the hardest thing for people to do because it is viewed as risky by most investors.
I'm not sure that is correct, but i don't have the data right now so I can't contradict you. But what you say is true then less than 13 companies were responsible for all the out performance. Since the index is market weighted I don't see how the conclusion you draw is that you should go low market cap since the out performance was driven by high market cap companies.
"Canadian Banks are the Only Sector to Outperform Berkshire Last 25 Years"
in General Discussion
Posted
Well the ability to own capital property for one.
As SJ pointed out, you can sue but mainly for redress. So you won't see the crazy awards that sometime happen in the US. Siskinds is probably working right now at getting a class ready.