rb
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Posts posted by rb
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potentially so. I'll give you an example in my backyard.
Behold this Zillow listing:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5500-Friendship-Blvd-APT-817N-Chevy-Chase-MD-20815/37195057_zpid/
this is in a well-located but tired building, it is spitting distance from Whole Foods the Friendship Heights metro, etc.
$500K gets you a 1200 sq foot 2/2 with some outdoor space that would rent for $2,500 - $3000 (the listing shows a rental at $2,950, I assume someone would rent a little lower than that). If you paid cash, you'd still have a $1000 / month HOA. this is a decent albeit somewhat unhip location. the building was built in 1968. I think its a terrible investment proposition. $2600 /month rent less $1000 HOA = $1600 / month before any other expenses. We're already at an extremely low cap rate. Maybe it goes for lower, but I happen to know a lot of investors own units in this building (let's just say I know a former tenant very well); the units seem to move slowly but they do sell at prices indicating ridiculously low cap rates.
Let's walk across the street, to EQR's property (formerly owned by Archstone), Wisconsin Place. Wisconsin Place sits atop Whole Foods (shared parking garage) which also connects to the Friendship Heights metro, which connects to a little retail center that includes movie theater, department store, restaurants, gyms, etc. This was built in 2009 and is in good shape.
https://www.equityapartments.com/washington-dc/friendship-heights/wisconsin-place-apartments
https://www.equityapartments.com/washington-dc/friendship-heights/wisconsin-place-apartments##bedroom-type-section-2
A 1000 square foot two bedroom is listed for $3600 / month and up. studio's and one bedrooms $2,100-$2,200 and up.
this is kind of a contrived comparison using anecdotes, but the first one trades at an 6%-7% rental yield or so and as you point out EQR is closing in on a 9%. But the maintaince and capex and running cost of that 9% are LOWER because the building is newer and the room for error is higher because the rents are high because of the quality.
you are buying property in areas where even old kind of tired buildings still command high prices because (in this instance) this is metro-accessible high rent areas with amenities and stuff.
and jsut for shits and giggles, you all will be happy to know that GEICO's corporate headquarters is right next to both buildings:
I have to thank the pupil again for this excellent post. Especially for the fact that he placed some markers. From the longer post I'll pick this.
A 1000 square foot two bedroom is listed for $3600 / month and up. studio's and one bedrooms $2,100-$2,200 and up.
His post was made at the beginning of April and the numbers checked out. If you go now to the Wisconsin place website you'll see that the 1000 sqft 2 bedrooms are starting at $2400 (It was $2600 when I checked a few weeks ago). The studios are now at $1600.
I think this may be an indication that something very bad may have happened to the rental markets. I cannot remember any rental drops comparable to these in 08/09.
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There are many cases. Just a few off the top of my head:
Very famous case Kimberly Clark.
Maybe the most obvious one on this board: Berkshire Hathaway
Coke in the 80s and 90s after stalling in the 70s.
Haven't looked at it but pretty sure 3M did too. What they're doing right now is much more growthy than mining.
Most of the cases I know happen because of a transformation of the company (3M and Kimberly Clark) or the arrival of a super CEO that reinvigorates the company.
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Works just fine. Just make sure you fill out/update your W-8 BEN. I'm actually in a country with a 10% treaty rate and I get that rate.
Can't say anything about acquisitions/special dividends cause I haven't had that situation yet. But as smoothly as everything goes I don't think you'll have problems.
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Wabuffo,
What is your best guess then to how this plays out in the US and Japan which have a lot of debt but also have their own currency?
Seems like could be a big cost at some point.
Is the most likely scenario high inflation and higher taxes with lower spending in the US and Japan?
Also, how about historically all the countries that defaulted - Russia and Argentina in the last 25 years. They had their own currency but issued dollar debt but still defaulted - couldn't one have argued that they could of just issued more debt in local currency and paid back their USD bonds rather than defaulted? I wonder if it is sometimes easier politically to just default and screw the creditors.
It is interesting to me that if there is debt to the public of 200% of GDP then at "normal interest rates of say 5% interest costs alone would be 10% of GDP which is much harder to keep paying.
As Wabuffo explained earlier.
In respect to countries that issue debt in their own currency the debt is not so much real. It is money that a country owes itself. Japan is actually the best case of this because they haven't been running trade deficits. So those JGB that are the private sectors' assets. So what actually happens will be dictated by the private sector's appetite for assets and the associated impact with that. In your example you mention interest rates of 5%. OK, well what's gonna cause rates to go to 5% and what effect will that have on the economy?
To take your Japan example, if you're gonna have debt paydown in Japan that will be because the population will want to hold less bonds. That means that they will take that money and spend it which will actually be a very positive thing for Japan.
In the case of Russia, they had to borrow in foreign currency. That's because they were running current account deficits. Basically they were a net importer of goods. These goods were sold in rubbles. But none of the exporters wanted to hold rubbles so they exchanged them for dollars. Then the Russian government had to go out there and borrow those dollars in order to balance the equation.
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Pretty sure that the Secret Service enforces quite strict social distancing around the President.
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You guys are so right. The actions of a country's leader have no bearing on what happens in that country. Totally unimportant. It's all up to the sub-national governments. ::)
But forget for a moment about duty to country and people for a moment. You have a leader who knows you have a highly transmissible respiratory virus that is lethal with a case fatality rate of 5% then wants to hold crowded, indoor, maskless rallies with his supporters. What do you file that under? Forget about incompetence as a national leader. He is quite literally fine to have his base supporters die so he can have a good time/good photo ops. I guess they should just take one for the team. But yea the libs are the "tards".
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Slow day at the hospital I guess.
Yeah, some people are focussed on politics. Strangely, nobody on this forum is talking about France. Yesterday, France had 6,500 new cases for a country of ~65 million people. Yesterday the United States had 29k new cases for a population of ~325m people. Over the past week, looks like France took over the lead for the most significant covid outbreak amongst developed countries, relative to its population? Things seem pretty manageable in Sweden these days...
So, shall we engage in a series of venomous statements about President Macron, now that France is "winning?" Is this MFGA?
SJ
Oh man. Prepare to be viciously attacked like the dozens of others who came before you; that dared present anything contrary to the narrative of the guy who got snubbed for debate team captain in high skool.
Now back to crying about Trump. I heard yet another person who dislikes him is writing a book or prepared to make a statement about how much he sucks! Libtards....go crazy!
Yep. Libtards.
The guy you support to be leader of your country is literally a moron. Not only described as such by many close associates but continues to prove that everyday the latest installment being describing to Bob fucking Woodward how he knew about the legality of the coronavirus yet the went on to downplay it and lie to the country and encourage reckless behavior that led to a lot of deaths. It's not like Bobby there may have written some books that presidents didn't like or anything like that.
But sure, go with libtards.
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"Everybody I know has owned and made money on AAPL over the years. And almost all of them lament selling it "too soon"."
I knew a guy who bought into QCOM pre-IPO and has made an outrageous amount of money for his family (he has passed) simply because he never fell for the temptation of taking profits. everyone needs a system, and taking profits religiously (and cutting losers quickly) is a pretty good system. but if you want to make some big bucks on a stock (of course at the risk of losing it all on it) you need to sit tight. (seems like I heard that from some old fella often quoted on this board). he never sold QCOM because he didn't need the profits to pay for his family's lifestyle at any point of time, but also because he viewed it as a "part of the family" (so the whole "don't get emotionally involved with stocks" is not always wise advice). and with his passing the family got the step up in basis for income tax purposes...huge home run
That's pretty much nonsense. But it does make for a nice story when the stock end up going up. See I knew a guy who felt the exact same way about Nortel. He didn't make an outrageous amount for his family.
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Just wondering who is preparing for this scenario in the board. With tech companies flying higher and higher, I wonder what happen if China blocks Tesla or Apple from selling there. How likely is it to happen? I guess it's kind of guessing whether a pandemic was going to hit in 2020 in late 2019?
I've often wondered if China would have the balls to forcefully take over operations of the Tesla factory in China and blatantly steal their IP. I could see it happening if tensions got high enough between the western world and China.
Why would they need force?
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Reichmanns
in Books
Is there something to deduct & learn from those books about the correlations between returns, size & libido? - In that case, I'll buy them right away! [ : - ) ]
Thankfully there's no libido in there.
There's no questioning of personal tastes but somehow the combination of Orthodox Jews and libido doesn't really do it for me.
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Reichmanns
in Books
I've read both Reichmanns and Towers of Debt and I highly recommend both. The history of the family is very interesting to me.
What I find fascinating is that after all that empire building and cut throat deals, one of the few remaining bits and still the most successful bit is the tile store in North York which is where all of it started from in the first place.
Enjoy.
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It is interesting Sweden's curve is flattening without doing much in terms of aggressive measures like other places.
Yes, on the subject of Sweden here's an article published yesterday:
SJ
That's really more of a blog post. And a pretty dishonest one at that.
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Phase 3 trials are for wussies.
True men chew glass, drink jet fuel, and do not need no f**king vaccines.
Jurgis,
I think you forgot to add [, ref. the Russian context here] "... and go on summer vacation trecking in "the Russian [now, for some years "untouched" & left alone] national park" called "Tjernobyl"."
It's certified COVID free!
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The China and Russia vaccines will probably be vilified by the left as an election interference serum....
Hey man, you wanna inject yourself with the Russian vaccine sold to you by Putin you go right ahead.
I'm gonna continue to skip eating out for a few extra months and wait for the one from AstraZeneca, Sanofi, or JNJ.
Full Disclosure: I also don't drive a Lada, or fly or airliners named Ilyushin or Tupolev.
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I talked with my brother in-law today. He lives in Ontario and said that they haven’t been required to wear a mask up until just two weeks ago.
Bullshit! You pretty much have to wear a mask anywhere you go in Ontario for a long time.
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Ok. I'll answer. If inflation goes to 5 with rates low the market will crater. But really with all the stuff that's going on who the hell knows what the market will do.
Anyway that's just so bs answer above, to a bs question. I say that with no disrespect or sneer towards twocities because it is legitimate way to think. But the Fed will never let inflation go to 5. The Fed is actually is a very conservative institution, often referred to as the borg, It is where creative ideas go to die.
Powell in particular wasn't a revolutionary, that's why he got the job. Yellen and Bernake were way more revolutionary economists. I think a lot of what is missed is that Powell isn't doing these things because of the Dow, he's doing them because he looks at the world and he's scared shitless. The idea that Fed actions are meant to support stock market levels is a bit ridiculous. But people are happy to bid up multiples based on that. We'll see how it works out.
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Airbnb will give you pretty nice discounts on monthly rentals (I think technically it is 28 days), that might be the ticket to allow you to scout out a few different locations to see if it's just an itch you want scratched or want to jump in deeper. I just did a sample scan for St. George, Utah for September with multiple places offering 45% discounts.
Wow 45% discount? That's insane! I'd love to do that! So if I just go to airbnb and put in a reservation of over 28 days, I'll get this discount?
That sounds really good.
I was initially thinking of buying a vacation home and then later convert it to an airbnb property while I am not there.
No, it's not Airbnb that gives you the discount. It's all up to the hosts whether they want to give a discount or not. But generally most do and generally it's in the 15-20% range. The 45% discount that Gamecock is seeing is most likely something like 15% normal discount +30% COVID discount.
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So if it doesnt work, and you dont see a valid argument for it, why continue to get so worked up over it? No one is forcing it down your throat...Conversely, if someone else seems to think it has a benefit, they should be able to do as they wish. Same way some weirdos have dream catchers or other trinkets they ascribe some sort of value to. Are you really this intolerant of everyone else's opinions and beliefs? Stop "pretending" to be concerned about the "health" of people you clearly possess such disdain for.
We all know you guys love blabbering on about it simply because you feel every time you do, that you're "really showing Donald!".... let it go.
That's not really how we're supposed to do medicine and drugs. There's a reason why we bother with all those pesky drug trials and have prescriptions and stuff.
These are not sugar pills. Drugs also have side effects and can be dangerous. I have yet to hear of a dream catcher side effect. That's why promoting wrong drugs is dangerous and irresponsible. People will seek those drugs. Doctors are supposed to be the gatekeepers but in many cases they just fold. That's how people were able to get huge amounts of oxy and kill themselves.
Oh right and just cause the promotion comes from a buffoon doesn't make it any less harmless. After the disinfect yourself with bleach press conference there was a remarkable number of people that actually drank bleach. BLEACH!
I must have missed the part of the conference where the lady doctor told everyone Covid was some alien sperm related thing. Did the other doctors who spoke subscribe to her strange views as well?
There are plenty of quacks out there both known and unknown. I'd suspect if all of the quacks were known, there would be an awful shortage of "reliable" doctors, dentists, and scientists.
Yea everything i've said just went woosh.
Why does it have to be covid related? As a doctor you relate any medical condition/treatment to alien DNA and I'm outta there. See previous comments about credibility.
I guarantee you that if I start talking seriously about demon sperm my clients will start to pull their money from me. Who could blame them? And investment management is not even about life and death.
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So it looks like Louis Gohmert, big anti-masker and all around douchebag, tested positive for COVID. His response has been predictable: wonders whether he got COVID from the few times he actually wore a mask, plans to treat himself with HCQ.
You've got to wonder what would it take for these guys to get serious about it. Do some of them have to die for the message to ring home or not even then?
In other news Herman Cain (anti-mask guy) died today from COVID. Though they probably wouldn't consider him one of "them".
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So if it doesnt work, and you dont see a valid argument for it, why continue to get so worked up over it? No one is forcing it down your throat...Conversely, if someone else seems to think it has a benefit, they should be able to do as they wish. Same way some weirdos have dream catchers or other trinkets they ascribe some sort of value to. Are you really this intolerant of everyone else's opinions and beliefs? Stop "pretending" to be concerned about the "health" of people you clearly possess such disdain for.
We all know you guys love blabbering on about it simply because you feel every time you do, that you're "really showing Donald!".... let it go.
That's not really how we're supposed to do medicine and drugs. There's a reason why we bother with all those pesky drug trials and have prescriptions and stuff.
These are not sugar pills. Drugs also have side effects and can be dangerous. I have yet to hear of a dream catcher side effect. That's why promoting wrong drugs is dangerous and irresponsible. People will seek those drugs. Doctors are supposed to be the gatekeepers but in many cases they just fold. That's how people were able to get huge amounts of oxy and kill themselves.
Oh right and just cause the promotion comes from a buffoon doesn't make it any less harmless. After the disinfect yourself with bleach press conference there was a remarkable number of people that actually drank bleach. BLEACH!
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It's ironic...the same individuals bashing this "demon sperm doctor" for her views are the same ones who say men can be women and men can give birth and have periods...
Wow that's quite the non-sequitur. It's not even wrong, it's just, nothing at all.
Do you often just plug something you have on the mind into an unrelated discussion like that? Might want to have that checked out.
Pretty sure everyone who's not bonkers doesn't think that demon sperm infecting you in your sleep is crazy and that this "doctor" doesn't sound very sane and qualified to give medical advice on critical drug research.
"Immanuel, a pediatrician and a religious minister, has a history of making bizarre claims about medical topics and other issues. She has often claimed that gynecological problems like cysts and endometriosis are in fact caused by people having sex in their dreams with demons and witches.
She alleges alien DNA is currently used in medical treatments, and that scientists are cooking up a vaccine to prevent people from being religious."
If you don't think it's INSANE for the president of the US to be simultaneously promoting this "doctor" while attacking Fauci, you probably have had too much love with demons in your dreams..
As far as HCQ goes (and I don't know much) is there any reason to prevent individuals from taking it? I don't understand the divisiveness outside of the politics. This whole thing reminds me of the essential oil and cbd oil crowds but at a national level.Well, if it's not effective, and can have dangerous side effects for some people, why would people take it? And claiming something is a cure for a disease for which there is currently no cure is EXTREMELY dangerous, as it'll modify people's behavior and perception of risk and more people will get sick and die and infect others than otherwise, causing more suffering and economic damage than would be the case if people were, y'know, more rational about it.
Otherwise, why not go to the pharmacy and just pick stuff at random and take it and tell others to take it too, while at it? It's all FDA-approved, right? Is that the standard?
I think both are equally bonkers....just pointing out the hypocrisy from certain camps. Your insertion of her "demon sperm opinion" has no relation to her opinion on HCQ just saying...What I said is not a non-sequitur, but discrediting her views on HCQ because of her other beliefs is..
Also, regardless of her views if she has been granted an MD license from the mighty AMA why wouldn't she be able to practice medicine or give her opinion?
I'm not advocating for HCQ...I have no opinion on whether it works or not.
Both may or may not be bonkers, but they have nothing to do with each other. That's what non-sequitur means.
As for a license, I'm sure you know that there are bad doctors, lawyers, pilots, plumbers, etc. You judge people on their words and actions, not on pieces of papers, and he words are those of an insane person.
How far along would science be if we disregarded opinions of those on certain subjects because they hold odd views in other unrelated areas?
The answer is not very far.
This is such bullshit. If you were to have surgery and you hear your would be surgeon talk about demon sperm, alien dna, etc in a medical setting would you let that person cut you? Hell in my case I wouldn't even have that as my family doctor.
Believing that there is life in the universe outside the planet Earth is one thing. Believing that alien DNA is used in medical treatments ON planet Earth is a very, very different thing.
Different strokes for different folks i guess.
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I am not sure why there continues to be so much debate about pretty much anything Trump says. He has demonstrated over and over again to be an unabashed liar. When he talks why would anyone take anything he has to say seriously?
The question is does HCQ+Zinc+Azithromycin when given very early on onset of symptoms works for Covid or Not?
Can you show me an RCT done to answer this question? This is what that doctor was talking about. The only way to answer if she is correct or not is by doing a study or accept her experience as correct.
The only two studies I know of this combination that I posted little bit earlier show encouraging results.
Can you show me an RCT for Remedisivir that improves mortality?
HCQ is almost free. Remedisivir is very expensive and takes IV in hospital.
They're not gonna do an RCT for everything that some right wing guy comes up with.
There have been a lot of trials on HCQ. The US FDA determined it doesn't work. The UK CDC determined it doesn't work, the French CDC determined it doesn't work, the German CDC determined it doesn't work, the EU CDC determined it doesn't work.
The only people still hawking HCQ are right wingers in US and Brazil. Also known as the bunch that fucked up the pandemic response.
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Just thinking a bit about occupancy here. I don't have the numbers handy. But as I recall in ancient times (pre-covid) vacancy was really low in EQR's markets. So it doesn't make much sense that a big occupancy drop is coming. Where would these tenants actually go to live? No way you get a lot of new supply coming to mark if rents are soft.
I guess the only wild card is the airbnbs coming into the rental market. I have no idea how many of those are around.
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looks okay to me. i mean definitely some impact, but the apocalypse is at least on the come rather than here. rents are dropping though. see slide 15 with the same store rent changes. -5% to -10%. that's how they're maintaining occupancy.
No position here, but doesn't it seem like a 5-10% rent decline across the portfolio is already priced in at today's levels? Does anyone have a good sense for what kind of cap rate these assets would transact at in normal times on a stable rent base?
They would transact around a 4% cap. You can get a better idea from the annual reports as EQR does transact fairly regularly and release the info.
401k Rollover Help/Questions
in General Discussion
Posted
I was hoping that some of you can help me with a situation I have.
So an employment has ended and there is an option to roll over the 401k to a traditional IRA. The 401k is fully vested. Now under normal circumstances I open up an IB IRA account and just tell the 401k where to send the funds right?
However, it gets a little more complicated. This a quite sizable 401k and is a highly compensated employee 401k. So I was wondering whether there are any limitations or exceptions in a case like this or a 401k rollover is good to go no matter what.
Any guidance on this is appreciated. Thanks.