enoch01
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Posts posted by enoch01
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When people walk around with rose colored glasses on all day it's fascinating the conclusions they make (to be fair the same could be said for permabears).
Something tells me Lampert wouldn't close 100+ stores, writeoff tax assets, significantly raise the risk of a supplier run, and manufacture a funding crisis just so he could marginally increase his holdings in his struggling retailer at mildly lower prices.
But then again that's what he wants you to think
Best comment on this entire thread.
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Up 11%. My glaring mistake this year was Olympus.
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Merry Christmas to all! :)
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ZH- such a concentration of nasty misanthropes. I do find myself straying over there when I want to hear what the otherside is thinking and they are the other side.perhaps the greater fools in late 2011 are ZH and CW.
We agree on that one.
The quality of the commentary has declined significantly since 2009. Today it probably gets more traffic than back then, but it has become an echo chamber about political conspiracy theories, gold, Blythe Masters, John Paulson, etc - notwithstanding the quality of the posts by Tyler Durden. I consider that a potential contrarian datapoint.
I would be worried about an upcoming crash if ZH's traffic started to decrease significantly. I still read it regularly, to try and cover all bases.
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Lots of people looking in the rear-view mirror:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45741694
Investors appeared to have lost faith in stocks this year....
Burned by two bubbles in the last decade and facing the second global financial crisis in three years, investors simply don’t have the risk appetite for stocks.
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Investors continue to reject stocks and their growing dividend payouts for low-yielding Treasuries and T-Bills.
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They're tearing down serviceable houses in Cleveland, and presumably elsewhere:
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From the article:
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"In a May court filing, Bank of America said that Baupost sent letters to the Bank of New York Mellon, claiming it was a certificate holder and that loans in two trusts did not comply with representations and warranties made by Countrywide Home Loans. They said appraisals were inflated and other information had been misrepresented.
Baupost demanded the trustee give notice of the alleged breaches to Countrywide, according to the document, and require Countrywide to repurchase the loans. On December 21, 2010, the trustee received a letter concerning one of the trusts from entities including the "Walnut Place" entities."
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It's not as if "Walnut Place" was ignorant of the nature of these MBS when they bought them. To a lot of people the optics of this will look like another case of the rich getting richer because they know how to game the system. While many working people are struggling to make ends meet, a billionaire with a few good lawyers can make hundreds of millions for his company in a settlement over acts that hurt those working people.
exacty. his "partners" come first. the country second.
I don't know - I like a country where contracts mean something. If he is successful, that will contribute (in a small way, granted) toward future issuers thinking twice before lying in their documents. That, in turn, might help direct credit towards those who are credit-worthy. Maybe that would make assets more affordable for the "working people", because those "working people" won't have to compete for credit with anybody who can fog a mirror.
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In any case I'd love to see the reaction if a short seller, say Jim chanos, did the inverse of this. Say he shorted the stock of a company that had public bonds and wasn't filing financial statements for that period. Then he sued them, forcing default and profited from the equity short. Or something like that. I seriously doubt anyone would be saying "he's just enforcing contracts, guys."
That's much too speculative. Do you have enough information on what Baupost is doing to draw that analogy?
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How is there anything wrong with this? He's enforcing a contract guys.
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Why are we not surprised? 8)
This is probably one of the many reasons he called BAC a "crappy" business recently with Charlie Rose.
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I generally just buy stocks at prices that I like, and haven't ever done an options trade, but I've been reading about selling puts as a long term strategy in a few different articles.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/296867-enhanced-income-strategy-for-colgate-palmolive
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/merits-buying-calls-vs-selling-143300305.html
Does anyone employ this strategy, e.g., when prices aren't as great as you'd like them and you have cash around?
I would only sell puts on stocks that are already cheap, or when there is a lot of fear, etc. Generally I think it isn't a great strategy to sell puts if you wouldn't buy the stock outright. This is because the puts are probably underpriced. Think about it this way: would you sell insurance against hurricane damage if you were the only one who thought the chances of a hurricane were higher than everyone else? This is basically what you are doing when you sell puts on stocks you think aren't cheap.
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The big banks look cheap. Therefore, they attract the eye of people looking for value. However, in varying degrees, the prospects of big banks depend on the macro environment. Therefore, if one is going to establish a position in the big banks, one needs to have an opinion on the macro environment.
Maybe that's why there's more macro talk on the board these days.
However, there are other companies whose prospects do not depend on the macro environment; Clearwire, for instance. I have a suspicion that wireless usage is going to grow exponentially for a while, regardless of whether Italy needs a bailout.
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Perhaps we're getting close? Will this quote in the widely-read zerohedge mark an inflection point? I don't know. Retail is continually withdrawing, so I take that as a positive.
Put a fork in stocks: America's infatuation with the stock market is officially over. -
Well,... it depends,... the days prior to the announcement of the tender offer on November 22, and the incorporation of the Delaware entity on October 4th, BAC traded higher, near or around $6 a share. The average daily traded float was around 250 million shares. If he buys 25 million shares a day, it would take about 20 trading days to accumulate the target amount.
Is the offer still good? Why isn't this being arbed?
If I would ask this question myself, I would probably say, it's because they buy only 5% of the outstanding float, and thus it might be too insecure for regular arbitrageurs. they might invest with higher probabilities of downside protection in full 100% takeovers, like Lubrizol. And with downside protection, I mean, arbitrageurs lust for short term downside protection. we longs rather wait for the long term exceptional rewards. Cheers!
Makes sense. Thanks.
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Well,... it depends,... the days prior to the announcement of the tender offer on November 22, and the incorporation of the Delaware entity on October 4th, BAC traded higher, near or around $6 a share. The average daily traded float was around 250 million shares. If he buys 25 million shares a day, it would take about 20 trading days to accumulate the target amount.
Is the offer still good? Why isn't this being arbed?
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All over the place. 50 million to 200 billion at the moment.
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I think we're done with this part now, right? Good grief.
"Value-investing legend Bill Miller..."
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Fantastic book. I can't believe it hasn't been mentioned yet. When people ask me about investing, I tell them to read Fooled By Randomness and the Berkshire annual letters before doing anything.
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I worked for IBM for 10 years. If IBM is entrenched in large corporations around the world and growing in emerging markets, so is Microsoft, perhaps more so.
Even though I am a big IBM fan, I believe MSFT is a better value than IBM at this stage.
Buffett may agree with you, for all we know:
http://fundmanagernews.com/buffett-microsoft
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meh...based on his background/decisions he didn't see like much of a financial pro to me...seemed more like he had a string of good luck and was a good client relationship manager/salesperson.
Sadly, that's all it seems to take these days to make it in the financial advisory business.
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No doubt that if given the option the Greek population will vote down any additional austerity measure.
Right now Angela Merkel et al must be busy sending out emails and memos all entitled "Dude... WTF??" (or however you say that in German).
So what was the point of all the negotiations if the goal was to then turn down the financial aid they're ready to send your way?
To get a better deal! Look how much they've talked down the rest of Europe so far. Papandreuo et al are waking up to how much leverage they have.
All deal will come with spending cut, so the end result is the same. The spoiled won't accept the cut.
The spoiled also may not negotiate in good faith.
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No doubt that if given the option the Greek population will vote down any additional austerity measure.
Right now Angela Merkel et al must be busy sending out emails and memos all entitled "Dude... WTF??" (or however you say that in German).
So what was the point of all the negotiations if the goal was to then turn down the financial aid they're ready to send your way?
To get a better deal! Look how much they've talked down the rest of Europe so far. Papandreuo et al are waking up to how much leverage they have.
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Up 19%. Held a lot of cash until about 2 months ago.
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Same story here: engineering, no girls in the class.
This is getting a little strange...
So Whos makin money?
in General Discussion
Posted
Flat in January after being up 11% in 2011. The loss from DIMEQ has been compensated by gains elsewhere. LEAPS on MSFT, BAC are growing to large positions. 10% cash.