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dabuff

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Everything posted by dabuff

  1. The increasing circles of competence requiring shallow research: Level 1) Dollar-coast average the Vanguard 500 ETF Level 2) Dollar-cost average into BRK, being more aggressive when price is near 1.2x BV Level 3) Clone the high-convictions holdings of the buy-and-hold fund managers which qualify at least by some value criteria spread over 20 holdings or so (though as noted above, this may not have worked spectacularly the last few years) and requires more work/nerves Intermediated -value weighted basket by EV/EBITDA Advanced: -buying baskets of spinoffs -baskets of net-nets
  2. http://seekingalpha.com/article/3918906-liberty-media-discloses-number-liberty-sirius-xm-shares-issued
  3. Probably best to hold a basket weighted by some value criterion (with the exception of LTRPA).
  4. A man who spends less than what he earns is rich by definition (with apologies to Munger).
  5. http://www.businessinsider.com/brian-spector-leaving-baupost-letter-2015-11 My mistake - it was Brian Spector (Baupost partner) in a quarterly letter but the point still stands: "One of the most common misconceptions regarding Baupost is that most outsiders think we have generated good risk-adjusted returns despite holding cash. Most insiders, on the other hand, believe we have generated those returns BECAUSE of that cash. Without that cash, it would be impossible to deploy capital when we enter a tide market and great opportunities become widespread. Seth has said on a number of occasions in both types of markets, 'If you have great ideas, you will have capital to deploy.' This is incredibly motivating to our investment team."
  6. How big a consideration is safety of the vehicle?
  7. When Seth Klarman was once asked how he was able to maintain outsized returns despite such a large cash position in his portfolio, he explained that it was precisely because of his cash position that he was able to outperform.
  8. I think the answer is that the opportunity set isn't "shooting fish in a barrel" yet. I've always hold cash. A lot that has traded down have hairs on them. The genuinely good businesses have held up pretty well so far. Agreed - there may be some blood in the streets today, but what if there's a bloodbath tomorrow?
  9. Nice thoughts. Remember, cloning without thinking (halo effect) can kill - think ZINC, CHK, PKX.
  10. sounds almost like Nassim Taleb's barbell portfolio - without the risky side of the barbell.
  11. Lol does anyone else get annoyed by the phrase "give some color"? The vague businesspeak during Q&A really just annoys me sometimes.
  12. Agreed - at least for me it seems more useful for tone and presentation. 1+ on Liberty/Malone events.
  13. What role does listening in on earnings calls play in your investment/analysis process? Is it a (?necessary) supplement?
  14. How are you able to tell whether these are high-cost shares?
  15. Thanks the pupil. It's a small liquidity sacrifice though, no?
  16. I-bonds and the like seem to be yielding much less than my opportunity cost of simply using a high-yield online savings account - thoughts?
  17. What do you all do with your extra cash while waiting for opportunities? I keep mine in a high-yield online savings account (Ally), earning 1% per annum, but was wondering if anyone had any better options?
  18. I think many would be well served here to check out Howard Marks's recent memos. Also, maybe more of a shift to indexing or Berkshireing is appropriate. the man with 110 IQ buys an index fund. the man with 120 IQ buys Berkshire when it's cheap. The man with 130 IQ clones cheap stock picks (or just buys straight up low EV/EBITDA or EV/EBIT)
  19. coffee can portfolio: BRK, GOOG, BAM, WFC, LBTYK
  20. Do you have any advice on those who would like to enter money management from other fields? How does one raise funds without a background in finance? Do you have any productivity hacks? What is your daily schedule (be as specific as possible)? What materials have helped you the most on your road to value investing? Would also be interested to know his thoughts on the Outerwall investment (long-term economics, competitive advantage, etc.) - if you look at per-kiosk revenue (or even watch a kiosk in real-life), it should not shock an observer that the numbers don't look promising whatsoever.
  21. This book is apparently just being released: http://www.amazon.com/Quality-Investing-Owning-Best-Companies/dp/0857195018 Looks to be interesting subject matter, especially for the Buffettologists among us.
  22. Looks like a comprehensive tome - how does this differ from Lowenstein's and Schroeder's biographies of WEB?
  23. I agree with comments above - Charlie likely does not have his models written down as he has no need to - they're ingrained in his cerebrum. It's like a recipe for a favorite food: during the early stages you may need the instructions, but eventually. But writing down the models for yourself helps to embed them in your long-term memory, which is especially important during earlier stages. Ref: Use-disuse (mental model #43)
  24. From what I read, Munger's approach seems to be applying the mental models as a checklist, especially when evaluating business decisions and outcomes. This is essentially what I try to do myself: are there any factors described by the mental models that would serve as head/tailwinds for the business over the next several years? I think it's nice to take Bruce Berkowitz's model of trying to destroy an investment - and use the models as a 'railroad' for your positive and negative thinking about the character of the business. At any rate, thinking broadly seems to be the only way to catch the elusive multi-bagger as Munger and Buffett have done. You may have already encountered this, but Farnam Street has a lot of material on the subject of mental models.
  25. Looks to be a wonderful site, but I'm having difficulty making an account (and the browser is telling me there is a security certificate issue) - anyone else having this issue?
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