biaggio

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/will-prem-watsas-650-million-bet-pay-off-if-it-does-fairfax-makes-109-billion "Will Prem Watsa’s $650-million bet pay off? If it does, Fairfax makes $109 BILLION"

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000341008 Mark Fisher: Canadian energy on sale

My 8% position has taken a beating here. To add to my possible confirmation bias: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102233663 http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=506243 Appreciate all the posts here. Very therapeutic. Keep posting.

kevin4u2, thanks for the info. I am looking at this area because of the recent depressed pricing. I get the feeling that I should probably be avoiding this. So basically we should look at 2 basic things when looking at reserve reports: - Proven reserves - Capex spent vs how much 1P reserves are added--to see that they are spending money intelligently. One should pretty much ignore, or take it with a grain of salt everything else which requires various predictions/estimates. Looking at LTS, they have ~ 79 m barrels of proven producing oil with a F+D cost ~ $31 per barrel= $2.4b --> would others like CPG be willing to pay this instead of doing their own F&D (CPG historic F&D cost ~$24 ...but that was the past) vs LTS current EV=$2.3 b. All the other land , probable barrels are free options. At $4 per share, LTS is a better bargain then at $9 if oil prices cooperate. I can t see it going to zero. (It could be my blindness). If oil prices continue to be depressed or decrease more, they could cut the dividend to zero, cut their capital spending, and cut their operating costs...yes the share price would suffer. Who knows what oil prices will do. They might be up to $100 again. Its possible that prices will stay around $80...I would expect LTS and other companies to adjust to this if they want to survive. Just speculating. Again I appreciate all the healthy skeptism. kevin 4u2, ItsAValueTrap, is there a price or valuation where these types of properties would be considered for your portfolio.

Valuetrap, thank you for your response. Much appreciated.

Kevin I really respect your opinion. You are of the same opinion as value trap, another knowledgable poster here I am just wondering how you go about looking at these reserve reports? For others here, here is a report on reserves starting at the bottom of page 14. http://www.lightstreamresources.com/files/pdf/investor-relations/2013/2013%20Annual%20Information%20Form.pdf It seems that reserves are estimated by Sproule, who seems to evaluate most O&G properties that I have looked at. Maybe thats my problem I am looking at the wrong properties. Are these professional engineering groups in collusion with management similar to the financial auditor pre 2008. With the way things are working out I am really doubting myself. I have a very small 1% position but was thinking of adding. The whole reserve report seems to have a lot of estimates. Estimate for future prices, operating cost, etc...I understand how the NPV number can be BS . How accurate are the estimate of actual reserves in barrels of oil. i.e. if they say that they "probably" have 176 million of barrels of oil in reserve, do we care if its 125 or 200 million barrels....Ok I care, I would rather it be 200 but if you're buying all 178 million barrels for $2.26B ($1.5B in Debt + the rest in equity), that works out to ~$13 per barrel..that seems inexpensive. If they end up having 125 million barrels then that ends up being $18 per barrel...still ok assuming that they can still turn a profit I had assumed that the estimates were roughly accurate +/- 20%. The way I see it they are too good to be true. Yet I want them to be true. I really appreciate Kevin4u2 and value trap introducing some skeptism. Hoping to learn something. Hoping not to lose money.

Potential catalyst= merger + acquisition by other oil + gas companies. Does it not appear that it is cheaper to buy these companies vs drilling for new oil. I am bracing for more price weakness until then.

I don't know about LEG as compared to others LEG is smaller, less debt, probably more growth(i.e. easier to grow), low cost, does not have past management baggage but I think its reflected in the price difference versus the others. No dividend. Everything has been clobbered. Could be because I hold LTS, PWT that I like them vs LEG-- they seem to have a sustainable dividend + seem very cheap: LTS PWT LEG net back 50 39 57 2P 178 625 117.2 estBBL/d 40,000 103,000 23,000 Debt 1.5B 2.4B 0.815B #shares 200m 495m 199.7 EV $2.42B $5.75B $1.93B EV/2p $13.6 $9 $16.5 EV/1000bbl/d $60 $56 $84 Capex 500,000 820m 390 CF/S (2013) $3.43 $2.17 $1.51 Div $0.48 $0.56 0 Div yield 10 8.3 0 Share Price $4.60 $6.77 $5.59 Price/CF 1.34x 3x 3.7x Above retrieved from their most recent investor presentation. They could be wrong. The question is why might the market be right i.e. why are we wrong? I am willing to suffer in the short run. Does anyone else other Canadian oil & gas companies to compare to those above? "Be wary of the high cost associated with a low price" to quote one of the other posters on another thread + my new mantra. Numbers seem to good to be true, 1.3x for LTS??? vs a property they sold recently for 6.5x.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/phildemuth/2014/09/19/charlie-munger-and-the-2014-daily-journal-annual-meeting-a-fans-notes/?partner=yahootix

Earnings, restatement for PWT out http://pennwest.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=27585&item=135228 I quickly scanned above -->Cardboard and others here proven right, restatement a non event? To me it looks like operating results better then expected (or am I missing something?).

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=H_INV_QL -interesting sentiment index that I have been following -index ( at 5 or extreme fear) => may be time to be greedy + review your shopping list

good website for beginners: www.getsomeheadspace.com

http://www.bakadesuyo.com/2014/04/how-to-motivate-people/ Thought this was good.

Ericopoly's level of thinking is like Ph.d quantum physics vs my level of comprehension (grade 3 math). Found this good write up for the avg. folk - which will probably not give you the outstanding gains like Eric http://www.beyondproxy.com/thoughts-portfolio-construction/