jawn619
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Posts posted by jawn619
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Now that I have your attention from the eye catching title, I wanted to talk about something in Berkshire's Annual report that I found really interesting.
On page 10/11 of the 2015 annual report, Warren talks about the all important insurance float that brings much value to Berkshire.
"So how does our float affect intrinsic value? When Berkshire’s book value is calculated, the full amount of our float is deducted as a liability, just as if we had to pay it out tomorrow and could not replenish it. But to think of float as strictly a liability is incorrect. It should instead be viewed as a revolving fund. Daily, we pay old claims and related expenses – a huge $24.5 billion to more than six million claimants in 2015 – and that reduces float. Just as surely, we each day write new business that will soon generate its own claims, adding to float.
If our revolving float is both costless and long-enduring, which I believe it will be, the true value of this liability is dramatically less than the accounting liability. Owing $1 that in effect will never leave the premises –because new business is almost certain to deliver a substitute – is worlds different from owing $1 that will go out the door tomorrow and not be replaced. The two types of liabilities, however, are treated as equals under GAAP."
Summarized: Cash premiums are collected now, which uncle Warren and Charlie get to invest for the benefit of shareholders. They owe claims, which show up on the balance sheet as a liability. Warren is saying that this liability isn't like debt that comes due and as long as new customers premiums are used to pay off old claims, the cycle continues and the true value of that liability is less than its stated GAAP value.
Please discuss or feel free to flame me for mentioning WB in the same sentence as Ponzi Schemes!
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I suggest you learn as much as you can about investing, either by taking the CFA or taking some financial modeling course. You'll get some raised eyebrows coming from IT, so you really have to know your stuff.
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"I have often stated that in order to be a great investor one needs to first have the confidence to invest without perfect information at a time when others are highly skeptical about the opportunity you are pursuing. This confidence, however, has to be carefully balanced by the humility to recognize when you are wrong. While no one here is enthusiastic about delivering our worst performance year in history in 2015, it certainly does a good job reinforcing the humility-side of the equation that is necessary for long-term investment performance. In 2016, we would like to generate results that reinforce the confidence side of the equation. Humility and skepticism will help get us there. " -Bill Ackman
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At around 47:00, He talks about underperformance
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Former trader here. It's actually not that strange. A lot of stocks have extremely wide spreads pre and post market. Part of the reason is just there is no one trading it. There is also extreme uncertainty because news like buyouts come out pre/post market. If you're a trader who offers liquidity pre and post market, the chance of informed traders trading against you becomes higher. Some market makers are obligated to offer liquidity, and they just quote some ridiculous bid/ask to protect themselves.
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Nope, not worried at all.
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they're good for finding out information that they don't disclose in their financials
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thinkorswim if you sign up for their free brokerage.
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Friend started a podcast on Focus and Entrepreneurship and I was lucky enough to be interviewed on the second episode.
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-fierce-focus-show/id1047471123?mt=2
We discuss investing, personal life, and habits!
18:25 On valuing a business
23:25 On risk
36:35 A game changing quote
Enjoy!
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as a side note, morgan downey is the founder of https://www.money.net. A Bloomberg competitor
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morningstar
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Promoting my friend's podcast. He interviews a Venture Capitalist in episode one and I'm in episode two. We talk about how I started my own fund and dig more deeply on the personal side on habits and philosophy. There is less technical stuff and more about me personally. We talk about risk, increasing your own return on invested capital, and the pain of losing money.
Enjoy!
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/fierce-focus-show-episode/id1047471123?i=354672914&mt=2
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It seems like there's a Warren Buffett in every country.
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How the Carl Icahns of the World Benefit Firms but Not Workers
In a separate paper, two of the same researchers found that firms targeted by activists also became more innovative, despite spending less on R&D.
Imo a very good paper about activist investors.
Cheers,
Gio
Good stuff gio. 3G's philosophy is one of the ultimate value creator at the expense of the workers.
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Does anyone know a way to reach out to Jeff Ubben in ValueAct? As a prior Microsoft software engineer and current Amazon engineer, I could clearly tell exactly what is wrong with Microsoft. I don't think Satya has done enough or is capable of doing enough to turnaround the ship. The fact that he only got 60% of targeted annual bonus means the board thinks so as well.
I have a plan in my mind that may fix Microsoft. I wish I could get it to Jeff.
Contact ValueAct: http://www.valueact.com/contact.pl
I made a call to them. The receptionist told me to write an email to her and she will forward it to Jeff. Let's see what happens next. :)
I can already picture the press release headline:
ValueAct welcomes new partner Muscleman
:D
Guys that's insider trading
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I want whatever Carl is taking in that main pic. Looks like he's on some good shit.
it's money
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I don't know why he's coming out with this stuff. This is not how he made his money and he used to emphasize that before responding to some boring repetitive question from whatever financial journalist was asking him for his view on "the market."
What if he actually cares about people and being right? He's already made enough money so I don't think he's short the market and going "activist" on it. He could just be a smart thoughtful guy sharing his thoughts Ray Dalio style
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I have a lot of respect for VIC write ups. It was started by someone who has arguably the best track record of all time. 50% a year for 10 years is out of this world.
A lot of members on the site are real hedge fund managers, managing real millions of dollars, with real audited track records of outperformance. While this doesn't automatically lead better writeups, generally it does.
It might not be the best place if you're looking for ideas to clone just based on number of comments but I've learned more from the winning VIC write ups than any other resource on investing.
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This is great. Thanks for the upload
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Uploaded case study on NVR homes. It was used by Greenblatt in his class to show an example of a good writeup/pitch.
http://raritancapital.com/casestudy/
Any ideas for case studies would be appreciated! Anything interesting that can be learned from a past investment will be considered.
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Small - Food Trucks. No taxes, Little overhead, Free Cash flow generative
Food trucks, I think not. Take a marginal business, restaurants, and make it mobile? You can't even really sell it if you are successful. To paraphrase Munger, avoiding taxes does not in general make a business good. Now if you could franchise them well... I was just talking to a food truck owner this weekend, boy oh boy he was not a happy man.
I think restaurants are only a marginal business because of the overhead/rent/operating costs of waiters. A food truck greatly reduces those expenses. I live in a city where food trucks/hot dog stands/food carts have an consistent stream of people.
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Small - Food Trucks. No taxes, Little overhead, Free Cash flow generative
Large - Bloomberg
Cash vs Credit?
in General Discussion
Posted
I think this is a secular trend that is going to continue for a long time. There is still a large runway from growth in the U.S. and even more internationally. I personally like how much easier it is to track transactions but would have to admit that I probably spend more with Credit than Cash.