kab60
-
Posts
2,093 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by kab60
-
-
-6,5%
Compares with
2017: 18,5
2016: 45
2015: 12,5
-
Thanks for the comments re Berry. I'm sure others know the case much better than me, so input or pushback is much appreciated. There is obviously a risk in substitution, but overall plastic usage is expected to grow. Not sure how their IP stacks up, but generally increased regulation should favor the bigger players (and possibly speed up consolidation). Their track record is outstanding, so I'd expect them to navigate choppy waters just fine (I think the biggest minus is inside ownership and their economic incentives, but so far it has worked out nicely either way).
-
You can't eat IRR, but that is what PE serves. Taking out equity boosts IRR, while it won't affect absolute returns (from initial investment).
-
I think Linamar is stupid cheap both short term but espescially if one expects to hold for the long term (they have a 100 year plan...). As for next year, who knows, but something like Spectrum Brands and Alliance Data might work out better as they delever, buyback and clean up their stories a bit (but Christ do I suck at making short term predictions).
-
Spent the last cash the other day to buy Berry Global just below 45
-
It sounds agressive but from a PE point of view a dividend recap reduces the money they have at risk and it gives the PE firm cash to return to their investors.
It means the PE firm is left with a highly levered equity stub that might pay off big or drown in debt, but if it's the latter they just pull the plug and leave the mess to someone else (or negotiate a major haircut on the debt as a condition for injecting fresh equity).
The ones that risk getting screwed is debt holders since they might be exposed to equity-like risk but only getting paid a bond return.
-
My friends and I go for Blue Moon, Stella, Brooklyn Lager, and maybe a Guinness. I don't remember buying Coors or Bud. We are in our early 20s.
Well, guess who sells Blue Moon... :)
-
Bought more TAP, not much cash left after selling all my winners already - and dumping most in ADS. Great timing. :)
Is Molson Coords Brewing really trading at 6x FCF?
I’m not familiar with the company, but what about this trend?
Icehouse
> Sales change (2012-2017): -8.9%
> Barrels shipped in 2017: 1.3 million
> Market share: 0.6%
Coors Light
> Sales change (2012-2017): -11.1%
> Barrels shipped in 2017: 15.9 million
> Market share: 7.6%
Miller Lite
> Sales change (2012-2017): -12.3%
> Barrels shipped in 2017: 12.8 million
> Market share: 6.2%
Keystone Light
> Sales change (2012-2017): -15.1%
> Barrels shipped in 2017: 3.5 million
> Market share: 1.7%
Milwaukee’s Best Ice
> Sales change (2012-2017): -16.8%
> Barrels shipped in 2017: 1.2 million
> Market share: 0.6%
Miller High Life
> Sales change (2012-2017): -21.5%
> Barrels shipped in 2017: 3.5 million
> Market share: 1.7%
Milwaukee’s Best Light
> Sales change (2012-2017): -43.7%
> Barrels shipped in 2017: 625,000
> Market share: 0.3%
Miller Genuine Draft
> Sales change (2012-2017): -50.5%
> Barrels shipped in 2017: 680,000
> Market share: 0.3%
Source: https://247wallst.com/special-report/2018/12/21/beers-americans-no-longer-drink-5/2/
Well, that is definately the bear case and somewhat consensus I think, but they've been good at making up for volume declines through economies of scale and pricing. Scale is what truly matters which is why M&A can create a lot of value for the big guys (basically Molson and AB InBev). Come a recession I think they'll do better than craft and perhaps they can pick some subscale brewers up on the cheap.
-
Bought more TAP, not much cash left after selling all my winners already - and dumping most in ADS. Great timing. :)
Is Molson Coords Brewing really trading at 6x FCF?
Nah, 12 pct FCFE yield mas o menos (they guide 1.5b FCF plus/minus 10 pct). Come mid 19 their leverage is on target and I expect a large payout.
-
Bought more TAP, not much cash left after selling all my winners already - and dumping most in ADS. Great timing. :)
-
Sold all of my Autozone stock last week (lucky timing). I might regret this a couple of years down the line, because these guys have a winning formula, but there's a real opportunity cost, and it was a really good IRR after the Amazon scare blew over. Lots of stuff looks attractive right now so solely sold on valuation (which isn't even that demanding to be honest).
-
More ADS at 189.30. 30% position now.
Ditto. And the percentage isn't far off either.
-
What's the story with Shire? Both he and David Abrams bought in the quarter.
Merger arbitrage? Getting bought out by Takeda
-
PROFILE ----> ACCOUNT SETTINGS ----> IGNORE BOARD OPTIONS
Thank you! It was getting really annoying.
Ditto.
That being said, the politics discussions might not be completely useless depending on how one invests. I think it says a thing about ones character and ones ability to have a flexible mind and change ones opinion when the facts change. Some of the politic posts leaves me with the impression that it's lacking among quiet a few participants on here, and it means I probably hold their opinions on investments in less regard if it seems they're only accepting information that fits their narrative. I'm sure someone can point out how I'm the victim of a lot of different biases myself by judging people that way (and possibly affected by my own political views), so bring it. :D Thinking Long and Slow bored me to death, so I didn't learn about all the biases just yet.
-
Alliance Data
Autozone
Auto Nation
Ashford Inc
Molson Coors
Interactive Brokers
Linamar Corp
Lion Rock Group
Spectrum Brands
Alliance and Interactive are like 15-20%, rest around 7-12%
-
It could very well have consequences, but one has to remember these are some really old cases. Same could be said about Danske Banks money laundering case, so not saying it won't have an effect, but a lot of the stuff is pretty well covered already.
This 2009 piece from The Guardian is epic: Roger the Dogder - £40m king of tax
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/mar/19/roger-allan-jenkins
-
Genesis Vision platform. Immutable Ledger. Blockchain. Metatrader. I couldn't make this shit up.
Anyway, why would you move the HF industry to the blockchain?
-
Rumour has it that someone cornered him. Fascinating story. Aas was a big swinging dick. Not so hard now.
-
Added to Metro Bank (MTRO.L) - UK exchange
Hi. I've been looking a bit into that. Seems very interesting. Have you seen a decent writeup anywhere or mind to share a couple of points?
-
Despegar is interesting. I think it could get more interesting as they just filed an S-3. From what I understand Tiger Global is liquidating their fund that holds this (which has a vintage around 2010), so there will likely be some more pressure in the short-term, providing an interesting buying opportunity.
It seems you're right. This thing keeps getting hammered. Glad I made this a small position - better lucky than good I suppose.
-
Have recent events in emerging markets pushed people to look a little closer? If so, what are you finding?
I’ve made a few purchases of companies in emerging markets that are more consumer focused, such as JD in China, PAGS in Brazil, and DAVA in Eastern Europe. None of these are cheap by any stretch, but are all in my opinion strong businesses whose growth will make their multiples look cheap in a couple years.
I welcome any company specific bear arguments, commentaries on EM in general, or new ideas...
I heard a PM talk about Loma Nebra on a Grant’s podcast...it’s a cement producer, but doesn’t generate much cash.
I took a small position in Despegar recently. Leading LatAM OTA with Expedia and Tiger Global both having stakes (Tiger plus 40 pct.). They're net cash (some 300m held in USD). CFO recently left, which is a negative, and insiders don't own nearly as much as I'd like, but I think it's somewhat interesting though valuation isn't on the cheap side (unless you do a relative valuation and compare to Booking/Expedia on an EV/Sales ratio). It's basically a proven business model, and their leading position+net cash balance sheet should make them come out stronger (if LatAm ever gets better). According to management they're taking share, and they're the lowest cost producer whatever that means in the OTA industry. It's a small position for me and I haven't really figured out why exactly they hold that view (that they're the lowest cost producer nor if they can keep that spot).
-
Bought some TAP, some DESP
-
I think in Hong Kong there is quite a big selection of ‘boring businesses’: often the founding family owns a large chunk, maybe not top notch management (but not horrible either) that are doing ok (not excellent). A few names of the top of my head: Ming Fai, Playmates, Oriental Watch, ALCO, Dickson concepts, King’s flair. Lots of these have quite conservative balance sheets and are actually returning quite a bit of cash to shareholders. I think they are cheapish.
It’s my pet theory that a lot of Asian investors simply don’t care about boring mediocre businesses.
I agree with most of that stuff. I'd add Lion Rock Group, where I have a fairly big position (and my only Asian stock atm). Great management, boring business but high ROE and opportunistic M&A that might work as a catalyst. Usually I don't care much for catalysts, but opportunity cost is very real, and some of these companies seem stuck for ages. David Webb also has a large position, so I don't think I've missed anything significant.
So, basically I see a lot of optically cheap stuff yet stay clear of most (due to bad governance, capital allocation, bad biz etc)
-
Large position (for me) in Ashford Inc. last few days. Good writeup by Scott Miller@Greenhaven Road but price much more attractive now, and they announced a major deal yesterday (somewhat expected but confirms thesis).
Auto Industry and Auto Company Valuations
in General Discussion
Posted
I agree with a lot of the stuff in that first link.
Auto looks cheap on a P/E basis, especially something like FCAU, but I can't get myself to invest in OEM's because I really struggle to figure out whether those earnings will ever be available to me or just plowed into the next new new thing. Now surely FCAU is doing all the right things, and it seems like they're setting themselves up for at sale, but what's the actual FCF over the cycle?
I might be missing a big opportunity, but I think auto retailers and parts manufacturers are possibly easier to figure out and just better businesses.