innerscorecard
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Posts posted by innerscorecard
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Definitely. Perhaps this bit could be copied onto the time-saving thread?:
"several times a day she drinks a pulverized concoction of cucumber, parsley, kale, spinach, romaine lettuce, and celery."
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2. Bring a book with you on the subway - You'll be surprised how much reading you get done
3. Download Earningscast and listen to your conference calls on your iPhone on the bus, out walking, doing cardio at the gym, etc.
Wow! Had no idea Earningscast existed. Fantastic idea. I have long commutes every day, and literally have no sitting room (or even standing room) on public transportation. But I can listen to audiobooks and podcasts. Conference calls are even better.
I am downloading it immediately.
Edit: It appears it is streaming only. Really, really wish it allowed you to simply download the earnings calls, as is the case with podcast apps.
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Every day it's obvious to me that not having to commute a long distance both ways to a full-time job would be the biggest win I could achieve, but it won't be for a while yet.
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I quite liked the most recent episode with John Huber of Base Hit Investing. Base Hit Investing and Oddball Stocks were the most clear and articulate expounders of compounders and cigar-butts respectively, and it was interesting to have both John and Nate on together.
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I wonder how good the book is. Tren Griffin is obviously a very intelligent, successful and talented blogger, investor and person (and I am not), but I find the writing on his site almost completely unreadable. He makes Joel Greenblatt, Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett, as well as literally everyone else, all sound exactly the same!
Perhaps I am too dumb to "get" his great synthesis of every public and private investor.
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I currently check once a day (when waking up in the morning), but am in the process of transitioning to a system where I never check, BUT I receive automated alerts if something warrants my attention (>5% move up or down perhaps). I already know when important fundamental changes happen via SEC RSS alerts (although honestly, prices usually are faster signifiers for this than my RSS feed, but I don't need that kind of speed anyways), so only significant moves in price are important for me to know about, not day-to-day fluctuations.
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I read the book too and really, really enjoyed it. I actually had only been to Starbucks a handful of times and never enjoyed the experience, but after reading it I went back to see what I was missing. I found a drink I like, but it's $4-5 and McDonald's has the same drink for $2.50-3. And for some reason the Starbucks drink (from multiple locations) tasted like chemicals, which was really weird. The same drink from Joe Mugs in Books-A-Million was the best of all the places I tried, but it's a ways away.
When I think about Starbucks, I can see how Shultz could grow it and also be so profitable, but at the same time it seems like such a bad value to me with the highest price and worst product. I guess everyone else likes it though. What do I know. ::)
I still recommend the book though; it was great.
I think that for almost everyone, the product is not what's inside the cup. I also think people really do not think about price and value the way people on this board or engineers (who make up most of this board) think.
I - who can't even drink coffee without not being able to sleep at night - personally don't "get it" on an intuitive level, for example. I only go to Starbucks when it is late at work and there is literally nothing else in my building to eat except the disgusting sandwiches at Starbucks, or when I invite a professional contact to coffee. It's simple to just look at the maps app and find the closest Starbucks to their building. I then get a decaf and don't enjoy it.
I'll try to make time to listen to the audiobook.
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What many Chinese investors would say is that value investing only works in certain contexts, but not in markets such as China, where politics is too important. That's the line they say all the time, anyways. They read Buffett and Lynch and then buy stocks not based on business fundamentals but based on this week's government pronouncements.
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Fear of missing out is real. The closest I ever personally felt was Bitcoin, 2012-2013, although I didn't buy at all in the end.
I can see it again with Chinese-listed equities. The fear of missing out is spreading as we speak.
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http://www.thebulldoginvestor.com/2015/06/14/mi-11-interview-with-tim-melvin-on-community-banks/
Will be interesting to see where this goes, especially with future guests.
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Why would you assume it is bad for clients?
By definition as the asset base increases the opportunity size decreases. The manager will also by definition have less time available for communicating with any one individual client. Although maybe that is a good thing, given how clients are.
The list of posters (including me) in this thread is interesting. All that has to happen is yadayada to join in, and then it will be the perfect list of young, idiot posters, including myself, that the old, best posters perhaps rightfully claim have completely ruined this board.
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Have many others expressed an interest in giving you their money to manage?
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I think an informational product summarizing relevant regulation and compliance issues (PFIC, can't buy GDRs in London, etc) for Americans buying international stocks could be good. Hmm, maybe I'll do it myself.
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Thanks for posting this. I would be the crudest potential user of this, but I absolutely would want to implement my mechanical Magic Formula investments algorithmically.
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first of all Bill Miller is Buffett disciple which a lot of people do not know...he followed Buffett's model by managing money at home and spending time with his family...
Miller is highly highly under rated he is the first to discover the moats that Microsoft, Amazon, Google (he bought this before the IPO), Ebay would hold over their sectors for long periods of time...his insight made him a legend and in one year he was gone.
i feel it is important to know how intellectually above most managers he was and is...
Long ago when considering his tech strategy he quoted Warren Buffett's words when asked about "how technology would effect the news paper business"...Mr. Buffett's answer...imagine that instead of getting your morning paper delivered to your home or office that you could download it at anytime anywhere....would you bet on newspapers being delivered to homes being a good business to compete with the digital alternative?
The obvious answer which Bill surmised in the 90's and early 2000's is that smart Tech will destroy these businesses and their moats will grow...
sounds easy but he did it when no other value investor did...Fairfax should have listened closer..as should I have....
in 2003 when i was looking at the oil boom Bill Miller recommended a book from Thomas Gold that basically laughed at peak oil as he opined that the was oil and gas everywhere below us...the shale revolution before there was shale!!! with this Bill predicted that oil could not stay high for long...he was wrong as in 2008 we hit $130 a barrel....or was he wrong? as we hit $40 this year....
The point is that Bill is one of the smartest most research driven investors i have ever seen...you all would be missing out one of the greatest investment minds of all time if you dismiss him because of the 2008 crash.
Dazel.
You may be right about Miller's analytical acumen, but I think risk control and avoiding blowups is an integral part of being a great or even good investor. If someone literally blew up, it rightfully should cause a re-evaluation of someone's entire record, as it means their returns were built on hidden risk in the first place.
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Buffett neglected his children when they were young, then tried to buy their affection later. His relationship with Susie also deteriorated due to his lack of attention to her, which he only seemed to really notice when she was on her deathbed in the hospital. He was always focused on accumulating wealth rather than on his family life.
After all, he could have retired in the 1950's if he had wanted, and he actually planned on doing that early on, at first.
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What happened to Bill Miller to me really makes Peter Lynch's decision to quit while he was ahead more brilliant. It's easy to say money isn't that important after you've lost it, as Miller said. Much harder to forego more money when you are the top of your game.
How do you know when you're at the top?
Miller was at the top for 15 years. Should've he retired 3 years into the streak? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? ;)
Of course you could even say that Peter Lynch retired too late. One of the biggest lessons of The Snowball to me, after all, was that Buffett's success and endurance came at great personal cost.
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What happened to Bill Miller to me really makes Peter Lynch's decision to quit while he was ahead more brilliant. It's easy to say money isn't that important after you've lost it, as Miller said. Much harder to forego more money when you are the top of your game.
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Alwaysinvert, I actually agree with you, in that my actual methodology is a lot closer to what you describe than what vinod1 does. I only read when I'm having fun. I certainly don't spend months making sure I understand texts as if I were doing academic work! (That's probably one of the reasons I was so bad at graduate school....) I just wanted to say that having some more elevated level of engagement can be beneficial too, as I've noticed in my own experience.
And you're definitely right that advocating that people do what vinod1 does would likely make them go insane! Really admire that level of discipline and focus - something I don't have, for sure.
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Maybe this will sound unhelpful and I'm not an authority or anything, but learning is a lot more easy if it is fun and interesting. So I go where my interests take me. My take is that if you approach it as a job it will become a chore. And chores that you don't actually have to do will seldom be done.
Munger was asked about how he absorbed his reading recently. His answer was that he just read. No underlining. No note taking. Nothing of that kind.
Incidentally, that's how I have always done it too. I didn't take notes back in school either and was always chided for it by teachers. Admittedly, this was not part of some master plan, I was just too lazy. But recent stuff I've read about it actually seems to bear out my strategy; it's harder to focus on listening to the content if you are preoccupied with writing it down. I'm not saying this translates to note taking when reading in the least, but maybe rigor is not always the correct solution.
Now, Munger is a genius and I am mostly just sloppy, so I grant the possibility that I could be wrong and a more pedantic approach is best for most people.
However, I would also add that things you have read can still be benificial even if you can't recall all that much about them some time later. They still build your mental framework . Thinking about some behavioral econ factoid, I'm not so sure I could say if it was from Kahneman, Ariely, Thaler or Cialdini, but what does it actually matter? I am pretty sure I have learned more by reading all of them instead of studying Influence for a year.
I used to read that way when I was in college and in graduate school. But I wasn't a very good student, and I think my lack of engagement due to this laziness hurt me. Obviously smarter people can do it.
That's why I don't like to think about literally copying Buffett or Munger, although I love to learn from them. They're a lot smarter than me. They might say to avoid spreadsheets, but I might need a spreadsheet just to calculate what they can figure out in 15 seconds in their head.
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I agree with Innerscorecard. I think the key factor for a lack of ideas is we have had a 5 year bull market (in U.S. Stocks anyways). While there are pockets of cheapness most sectors are fully valued to expensive. Really comes down to your perspective on interest rates. If US rates are headed materially higher then stocks are expensive and bonds are in a bubble about to pop.
When the next correction in stocks comes (10-30%) I guarantee there will be many more more value investment ideas posted on the board. There is just not much that is out of favour.
Earlier this year I thought the large cap US banks were pretty cheap; you could have purchased JPM in the $55-$58 range. With JPM now trading at $66 it is still on the cheap side but not as much as 3 months ago. There simply are not a lot of sectors or companies that are in a bear market right now.
Circle of competence is also an important factor. Personally, I have had the best results buying best in class, large cap US stocks when they are out of favour. I have dabbled in Russian stocks, oil and gas stocks etc but I have learned that there are lots of other people who have a much better handle on currency markets and oil prices than me. I am happy to simply wait until the next bloodbath so I can find companies I understand trading crazy cheap. Not many of these around today.
Right, the thing to do when you don't see a lot would be to keep on digging and keep on monitoring, but if you don't find things, you don't find things. I don't see that as a problem. If anything, it's a tribute to people's discipline.
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When valuations are higher, this is actually the logical course of action, especially for individual investors, rather than lowering standards further and further and spinning trash as gold. When people don't have investment ideas, they don't have investment ideas.
Innerscorecard, what markets are you referring to where valuation is higher? There are 60,000 stocks that a North American investor can invest. There are always pockets of cheap stocks: eg., HongKong, Russia, Greece, many stocks in these areas are not trash as I think of the word.
I definitely agree that there are cheap stocks out there, or sure. But the crucial variable isn't whether there are cheap stocks on an absolute basis, or even enough cheap stocks for individual investors to be completely fully invested. It's whether valuation levels are higher or lower than they were when this board was more active. All those international opportunities existed then, too, but there were also more US and large-cap opportunities then as well. So the aggregate amount of actionable ideas is lower now than then, even if it is still enough for people to be fully invested. Some people will be entrepreneurial and risk-seeking enough to find the ideas that exist currently. That's why we still do have posts on this board. And others won't, which is why there are less posts than before. For example, copying 13Fs will be less frutiful than before, because this only draws from the universe investable for 13F filers.
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When valuations are higher, this is actually the logical course of action, especially for individual investors, rather than lowering standards further and further and spinning trash as gold. When people don't have investment ideas, they don't have investment ideas.
Apps for investing
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I really wish Earnings Cast let you download the calls. I think that alone could be the basis for a competitor.