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Parsad

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Everything posted by Parsad

  1. Markel's 3rd Quarter report was released today. Cheers! http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1096343/000119312510250090/d10q.htm
  2. According to the 3rd Quarter 10-Q, they are 91% hedged. Cheers!
  3. No, it had more to do with the quarterly loss caused by transition expenses, asset impairments and higher operating and advertising costs. Same store sales showed some recovery, which is a good thing, and they continue to pay down some debt. Cheers!
  4. We buy during recessions and we sell during recoveries! ;D No, on some things the margin has reduced, so we've raised some cash to add to our existing stockpile, but we still have a fair amount in the markets. Alot of things have moved up quickly, as if this whole process is done. We think the deleveraging will occur for some time for governments. Corporations are in great shape, so you are seeing cash move to higher yielding assets...we said that this was a certainty a couple of months ago, but people disagreed. You have investors seeking better returns, and in particular financial institutions, that need higher yields to justify their underwriting experience...be it through loans or insurance. They had to move from bonds to other assets, and that is what we are seeing now. Endowments, hedge funds, private equity, you name it...they need higher returns to justify their cost structure. We are slowly taking a more defensive stance. Any movements in interest rates and you will get some reaction. Any significant movement in interest rates, and there is the possibility of the recovery stopping in its tracks altogether. The system is still quite fragile, so any increase in interest rates, commodity prices, asset inflation, etc will reduce the progress of the recovery. I think we are sort of stuck in that middle ground where you can't move too far forward, because the brakes have to be applied. And the intervention on various levels, along with improved balance sheets, means that going backwards is also less probable. As the deleveraging continues, things overall will slowly get better. The wildcard is some six sigma event...loss of confidence in some important country, terrorist attack, war (trade or otherwise), etc. We are all investors, so our focus should be solely on buying investments with a large margin of safety. And then selling as that margin shrinks. Everything else is outside of our control. Cheers!
  5. Overstock's trial is next September, so I think Fairfax's is sometime next year as well...probably not too far off from Overstock's date. Cheers!
  6. Numbers continue to improve! North America - formidable! (French for "terrific") http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-04/north-american-rail-freight-carloads-for-oct-30-table-.html?cmpid=yhoo Canada - pretty good http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-04/canada-rail-freight-carloads-for-week-ended-oct-30-table-.html?cmpid=yhoo Mexico - some slowing in certain sectors, but ok http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-04/mexico-rail-freight-carloads-for-week-ended-oct-30-table-.html?cmpid=yhoo Recovery is for real in the U.S. Weaker dollar will help. But me thinks there are problems down the road...stagflation! Cheers!
  7. Swiss Re has repaid Berkshire early. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-04/swiss-re-agrees-to-repay-buffett-s-berkshire-hathaway-capital-injection.html?cmpid=yhoo
  8. Don't know what will happen. It's kind of like a call option on Overstock and Fairfax. If they win, shareholders will probably get some sort of settlement, or it will be dragged through Appeals court for years. With all the stuff regarding naked short selling, hedge funds, brokerages, etc, public sentiment is favorable. We'll see. Cheers!
  9. The webcast replay should be available in a while, but you've got to listen to this thing...in particular the Q&A period. You have to wonder if analysts actually do any work, or do they want management to do it for them? I cannot comprehend why any rational company would go through the whole rigamarole of dealing with these guys...especially if you don't need financing in the public markets. This one Bank of America analyst...he pretty much wants them to pinpoint exactly what their margins will be and their cost structure going forward. Geez! On another note, Jonathan Johnson and Steven Chidester both did a good job! Incidentally, the broker/dealer trial is scheduled for September 2011. Cheers!
  10. SEC has clamped down on brokerages that provide "naked" access to clients on their trading platforms. Cheers! http://www.cnbc.com/id/39988437
  11. Article by Ben Stein after having dinner with Buffett. Cheers! http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/18/pf/investing/buffett_ben_stein.fortune/index.htm
  12. That's why Yahoo and Goog/Tube and the rest of the www-guys do not actively police their content (only promise to remove infringing content upon duly made requests) Great! I just made even more work for myself now. ;D Cheers!
  13. Al, It's about scale. Not an easy business when you've got Amazon already doing the same thing, and guys like Walmart and Costco online competing with just as slim margins. Byrne is crazy and loves a challenge...win or lose! He picked one of the hardest businesses to try and build a foothold in. The easiest way to explain is below: http://financials.morningstar.com/ratios/r.html?t=AMZN&region=USA&culture=en-US http://financials.morningstar.com/ratios/r.html?t=OSTK - Overstock is now profitable on a 12-month basis on less than a third of the revenue it took Amazon to do it in - Both companies had negative book until they hit a critical mass - Overstock has reached that critical mass faster than Amazon - Overstock's customer service numbers are on par with the best online providers in North America - Incremental improvements in margin will now have a full impact on net profits - Overstock has reduced their senior notes to $34M, while maintaining $76M in cash after leasing back their IT equipment - Cash should exceed $140-150M at the end of the 4th Q, before current liabilities are paid - Share count in the last three years reduced, whereas AMZN was still issuing stock - Byrne will grow Overstock while undercutting everyone else's margins...dangerous, but the only way to build a moat...think Costco or McLanes! The wildcard is can Byrne remained focused? I think with Byrne Sr. and Sam there, it will definitely help. This isn't like LVLT. Alot of investors hoped LVLT would also hit a critical mass, but their debt servicing costs are too high and they will probably run into serious problems before that...unless their benefactors can continue to refinance them, and receive insane interest rates on that debt from cash flows...but it's just not sustainable with their debt load as is. Overstock no longer has that problem. Cheers!
  14. I think there's a difference between a "repost" and a "quote". Anyways, Sanjeev, you are taking some personal legal risk by exercising active censor control (instead of letting the owner request the removal of a piece). Just my 2c... You're kidding me right? I own the site, and therefore have the option of removing any post that I feel would be an infringement of someone else's copyright. Cheers!
  15. Sanjeev, do you still have a position? If I answer that I'll have to kill you. ;D Or at least the partners in our funds may. Cheers!
  16. Let's give the lady a chance with open minds and lack of "censorship," in order for this liberating medium called "the internet" to reach its maximum potential. I believe we're going to be surprised! imo Umm, the board wasn't censoring what you said. You quoted a copyrighted interview, the title of which specifically says by the interviewer and interviewee: "Please do not repost without asking for permission". I'm guessing Alice and Miguel didn't give you permission Carl! ;D Thus the edit. Cheers!
  17. Lastly, I buy a lot of stuff online, and don't think I've ever found something I was looking for on their site. I've never bought anything from Walmart or Costco Online either, but they both seem to be doing ok! ;D Overstock is trying to create their barrier to entry, by becoming profitable on the thinnest of margins and providing a high level of customer service. Byrne picked a doozy of a sector to try and become dominant in, but they have a fighting chance. Cheers!
  18. I listen to maybe 2 or 3 every quarter. Not much! The financials really tell you everything you need to know as an investor. The conference calls just give color on the managers. Cheers!
  19. Not sure if this was mentioned previously anywhere here, but this is a fantastic website that collates all filings, newsletters, etc for value investors. Thanks Glen for telling me about the link! Cheers! http://www.dataroma.com/m/home.php
  20. Nope, just tracking raw material shipments and the distribution of finished goods. Cheers!
  21. Fairfax is acquiring FMR for $16.50 a share. Ericd was on to something here a month ago, but you guys stopped him! ;D Hopefully he didn't listen to anyone and bought...would have been a nice 50% gain in a month. Cheers! http://cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/index.php?topic=3049.0 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fairfax-Financial-to-Acquire-prnews-1520281664.html?x=0&.v=1
  22. Here they are: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fairfax-Financial-Holdings-iw-1029849445.html?x=0&.v=1 Cheers!
  23. U.S. continues to look really good: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-28/north-american-rail-freight-carloads-for-oct-23-table-.html?cmpid=yhoo Canada not bad: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-28/canada-rail-freight-carloads-for-week-ended-oct-23-table-.html?cmpid=yhoo Mexico, some looking really good, and some...not so much: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-28/mexico-rail-freight-carloads-for-week-ended-oct-23-table-.html?cmpid=yhoo Cheers!
  24. North American freight car orders are up significantly with large backorders. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-28/north-american-third-quarter-rail-freight-car-orders-table-.html?cmpid=yhoo
  25. Chicago is one of my favorite US cities (if not my #1 favorite). I totally agree with you on this Bronco. I really love Chicago. I prefer it to New York or Los Angeles. Cheers!
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