kfh227
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Posts posted by kfh227
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The problem with Tesla is that their tech can be copied. The thing is, other companies know what consumer want other than the electric car part.
http://www.siliconbeat.com/2016/09/08/apple-co-founder-may-swap-tesla-gms-bolt/
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Fairfax Financial
Berkshire Hathaway
possibly:
JNJ
Bottom line is, for buy and forget investments, I'd do diversified conglomerates. Like having a hedge fund without all the BS that comes with a hedge fund.
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I was looking into penny stocks as short target.
One thing I saw repeatedly is that some short stock would pop on huge volume. For example, DDAY is a company that losing tons of money and for last a couple of days, price popped up over 30% on volume 10 times normal day. I suspect insiders are manipulating the stock price since who would want to buy such stock at such amount? But I'm not an expert of trading mechanics. Can someone shed some lights on this?
I've seen this with BBRY (and other stocks). It's more akin to any news good or bad can swing stock prices wildly in either direction. And it isn't always tied to good or bad news can drive stock prices up or down with no sense of rationality.
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Disney is the ultimate good business with amazing pricing power
People will take their kids to Disneyland for the holidays instead of paying for rent (overheard this on the radio station)
Pablo Escobar took his kids to DisneyWorld @ the time he was being hunted by the US govt (Cocaine Cowboys)
A movie soundtrack from Frozen becomes a US best-seller because of the branding power.
The some of the biggest musical stars got started with Disney.
And don't even start with how iconic cultural icons have lasted over 40+ years.
Go to the Disney (trip planning) forums. People are starting to get VERY pissed at pricing models that Disney is putting out for Disney World. They are heading towards micro transactions for everything. Some laugh that they will start charging for popular rides in park soon.
They already screwed up fast pass to where it is pointless. All it really does is force you to walk through the park more (in sun and heat usually). But all that walking in the heat makes you more thirsty and the $3 Coke bottles are waiting for you.
I question their purchase of the Star Wars franchise. Light sabers going through bodies and blood on storm trooper masks. It's a along shoot admittedly but if Disney starts going after the ten market aggressively, they could destroy their "parent friendly" brand.
Storm troopers walking through hotels may scare and confuse 5 year olds. They show this in a commercial of them going through the Grand Floridian.
I used to love Disney but these days, I am caring much less about it. Some of the magic is gone.
I am just worried about direction. My fear is that if the direction is maintained, that the brand will be destroyed.
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The hatred for Trump is palpable, which is what makes me want him to win.
Not sure if you're serious...but if so, that is such an illogical argument.
Illogical if you want the system "to work" whatever that means to you, but not illogical at all if you're goal is the crumbling of the system. The more hatred and disgust politics engenders the less people will look to it to solve problems. The best outcome possible is for people to think of politics as a nasty process that is irrelevant to their lives and to dismiss it completely.
At best, it will begin a shift away from politicians running the country and instead, having the country run by it's citizens. As weird as that sounds, we've gone to far for to long in the wrong direction. I'll vote for anyone that is not a career politician knowing only that one fact. OK, they also have to show some level of reasonable intelligence.
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Frankly he scares the living hell out of me. IF he didn't preach so much hate and violence it would be different. It scares me to think that someone with his attitude could have their finger on the trigger.
I don't think he would have much effect on the market.
It's just game theory being used in practice. He is playing a game. And doing a good job at it.
You start by campaigning to the extreme viewpoints. Get them in your corner. Then gradually shift to the middle while gradually capturing the rooks that are less crazy.
By the time he starts debating Hillary, he'll sound just like her.
Here's the deal. The poor and middle class are best off with Bernie. There is no hope with Hilary. Sadly, Trump has said some thing that make it appear as though he is going to try to move the money curve back to the people that work. At worse, Trump will be a typical politician. At best, he'll actually do things to help a majority of the citizenship of the USA. Hilary at worse is a politiacian. At best Hilary is just a politician.
To be honest and open, my choices are:
1) Bernie
2) Trump
3) Abstain - who cares, we're screwed either way.
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If oil were to rebound to $50+ are there any companies that are worthless today that will be profitable?
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I had mentioned previously that Obama would propose some gasoline tax in 2016 well, here it is in a different form:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/04/white-house-wants-10-per-barrel-fee-on-oil.html
This guy should write a book once out of office: "How to put on a path of destruction the largest economy in the world."
Cardboard
Or the rebublican desires:
"How to put on a path of destruction the planet Earth."
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HOG: Young people could give a rats ass about this brand. It's for old people over 60 with money.
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Production needs to drop. And that will happen by attrition. That is, current wells will continue to produce since the capital outlays were made anyway. And the companies need to service the debt they have. But eventually, production will be reduced and supply/demand will improve and bring oil prices back up.
That one issue with price. The other is the strength in the US dollar. There is a strong correlation between the value of the US dollar and the price of oil. This is because of the ol' petrodollar. Most oil is traded in US dollars. So more oil can be had for less when the US dollar is strong.
So there are two issues: Strong US dollar and oversupply.
Now if you can determine when oil production will drop and/or when the US dollar will fall you can then start making predictions about future oil prices.
Oil production will fall In the next 5 years. This will happen because of attrition. But the US dollar? I have a feeling that it will be strong for a while.
Spoiler: Figure out when each and every oil company that is financially weak will go under and what will happen to their assets. And determine their impact on supply. And factor that in also.
So, god knows when oil prices will go up (or down). This is why Buffet has a "to hard" pile.
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FWIW: I just watched a relative sell a high end vacation home. It took him about 5 years to sell it. The problem is that the location is extremely rare but the market of buyers is equally small. It sold for about $440 per square foot and sat on 5 acres.
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You guys spend a lot on cars. Let's see how many years I can drive for the same price you spend on one tesla.
2007: I paid $15K will drive it at least until 2017 (maybe longer): 2007-2017 $15K
2017: An Elantra is now about $18K: 2007-2027 $33K
2027: Probably about $20K now: 2007-2037 $53K
2037: $22K for new Hyundai: 2007-2047 $75K
So I get 40+ years of driving for the price of one Tesla or 20+ years of driving for the price of one $33K sedan or Chevy volt. I know there is gas savings to be had, but it won't make up that much of the difference.
How much will you spend maintenance over the same time? And fuel does make a difference.
The average driver will spend $2400 a year in fuel and the AAA estimates the average maintenance cost is 6 cents per mile.
Over 10 years assuming average driving habit that's an additional $36k, $24k on fuel alone.
The model 3 is estimated to be $35k. Lets assume he's off on this like he was on the model S for argument sake and say $40k. Typically the government rebate is about $8k from what I've read. So we're at $32k for a model 3.
I've read multiple articles from Tesla owners (maybe Eric can confirm) who have said the only maintenance is tires. Which is a wash since every car needs them. Even the battery is under warranty for 8 years as per the Tesla website.
But I'll also say we don't really know much about maintenance past 5 years since the car is so new.
You forgot to factor in the fact that electricity is not free. I don't even know if it is cheaper than gas today. I know it was a few years ago when gas prices were ridiculous.
EDIT: That was easy. The cost of electricity in Connecticut is $1.80 in terms of gasoline prices. So you save about 20% on gas. You save mayebe 40% if you live in Texas.
Seems to vary wildly:
http://energy.gov/articles/egallon-how-much-cheaper-it-drive-electricity
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For luxury, used Lincolns with low mileage.
Why used? These things tank in value with 40K miles.
Or buy a new Prius. And sell it in 2-3 years as a private party sale. The value will drop about $3K. Let's say it drops $3600 over 3 years (36 months). So you are in reality paying $100/month for it (ignoring insurance, gas, maintenance, etc).
If course, this is all true when you look at data for cars that are 3 years old now. Not necessarily what things will be like in 3 years. The Prius can't dominate the hybrid market forever. And when that changes, so will the resale values.
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Blackberry is out of business.
But, they have positive free cash flows and positive total equity. And will probably have positive earnings this year.
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"Why would you say PDH is your best 2016 idea? its a large position in my portfolio but overvalued at the current price and we need to wait for fundamentals to catch-up to the stock price - it could take years."
We're long time PD shareholders & are accumulating, not selling. If the dividend continues we get a very good cash yield; should it get cut we will see a buying opportunity. We are also not measuring over a 1 year timeframe, & are quite OK with a one-year 25% loss - if it results in a doubling of our share count.
SD
SD, PDH : Premier Diversified Holdings. ; PD: Precision Drilling
Me: Nothing new: Good oil related cos. and PWE
So you are pro SD and PWE? I own both but I have to tell you that in my opinion Saudi Arabia needs to raise prices or SD and PWE are in for a world of hurt. Having said that I think I am going to buy some more this year in my Roth IRA. Probably in the next month or two.
I guess I have to ask, why the confidence? Should I just read the dedicated threads on the two from start to end?
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I'll be frank. We are due for a recession. Sit in cash/equivalents and when the next recession hits, pounce. You'll get better results this way. Of course, till the next recession hits, you need to be VERY selective but talking SP500 specifically, you'll make more via an index in the 500 if you wait.
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Without discussing the link between oil and the US dollar, any rational is short sighted. I searched the OP post for hte word dollar and found nothing so I didn't read it. Maybe later.
Simple: Strong US dollar => in the US it's cheaper to import gas than to pump it from underground.
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All the mouth pieces on CNBC need to talk the markets up while the managers unload their personal positions first. Then second, the mutual funds get fixed and third, the mouth pieces will talk smack so everything can be bought back cheaper.
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Saudi Arabia bases it's budget on an assumed oil price. Over the past few years they probably amassed a surplus. So they can deal with less income for a few years before the surplus is depleted.
Surprisingly, I can't find a chart via Google that just gives the Saudi Arabia national debt by itself. It's all tied to GDP. And I have no time to seek this data out right now. Probably a worth while thing to investigate to aid in the ol' mental lattice work.
One chart I stumbled upon looked to be fro ma study that says that Saudi Arabia won't have to worry about oil prices till 2020.
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I want to start reading up on the petro dollar and if the world is really going to go off it (some argue it already has) and what the impacts on the US dollar would be.
People are arguing about he wrong thing. The price of oil has nothing to do with shale extraction techniques or any of that other crap. It is a proxy to the US dollar. PERIOD.
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Are there any good books on the petro dollar and it's potential impacts should the world go ff it? I'm looking for something less than one year old.
I want to fully understand the petrodollar. It seems that if the world go off the petro dollar, the US dollar will tank. And if it does, oil prices will go up. And if hat happens, all these "cheap" US oil companies will all of a sudden become VERY valuable.
Anyway, books ... what are they?
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I hear the Starbucks CEO is thinking about running for president too. Should be interesting. Another thing to put on your resume I suppose.
How about someone that is blue collar and not an economic elite?
I'd vote for that person blindly.
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As an American, I am embarrassed by our political system. And I am greatly dismayed over the debate that is occurring over minimum wage. There should be no debate. Economic elites want low income people to live in cardbox boxes forever though. They (the economic elites) need more money after all.
In schools, we teach our kids that we are a democracy. I wish we taught the various forms of government and told the kids to decide what we are. HINT: We are not a democracy. We are a country controlled by economic elites and interest groups.
I am praying that the guy from Vermont is our next president.
But I think it would be great for Trump to win. We haven't had an assassination in a while and I think that guy would push someone over the edge. And to be frank, I don't think it would be great for America to have him be president or that in general that I want to see an assassination of a president. I think it would be great if trump were dead and his presidency may expedite the process to the benefit of all humanity.
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I wish the USA just went back to pensions.
Most memorable company event & subsequent share price movement in past 15 years.
in General Discussion
Posted
The turn around that I thought would never work even though I saw the news at the time that they were modifying their business plan:
Pier 1 imports
https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=1&chds=0&chdv=1&chvs=Logarithmic&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1377288000000&chddm=445345&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NYSE:PIR&ntsp=0&ei=2udrWJjZM429e83Rr9AM
A low of 11 cents and high of $20 on the run up. Anyone that threw a couple grand at it is likely very happy today!