constala

Fantastic job Allegheny! Congratulations, what a way to start 2017!

"LONDON 29 dec16 - Caribbean Investment Holdings Ltd on Thursday said it swung to a loss in the first half of its financial year. The holding company said it made a net pretax loss of USD2.0 million in the six months to the end of September, having made pretax income of GBP3.8 million the year before. This came due to a higher provision for loan losses - which increased to USD12.6 million from USD4.9 million - offsetting a rise in interest income to USD21.3 million from USD17.1 million." why the big rise in loan provisions?

Found this article with a lot of background on the litigation and on Lord Michael Ashcroft's antics. Belize Bank : A $10m mystery; What connects the deputy-chairman of the Conservative Party with Hugo Chávez? http://www.economist.com/node/11377008

Thank you Allegheny for your prompt and thorough comments-now let me take some time to digest them. I have to say, it is such a delight to be able to debate like this between gentlemen; the whole Corner of Berkshire and Fairfax experience is so much more pleasant, civilized and constructive than the other forums! If I may be very blunt, this trade's reward/risk/brain damage/timespent profile still does not strike me as remarkable. I sense somehow that you are able and keen to conduct deep research and have some litigation appetite so I suggest you have a look at FWP US, CRDS US, and maybe RVP US. As far as litigation/patent law are concerned, those 3 cases (biopharma, tech, pharma...) offer multibagger upside with some Margin of Safety. FWP US in particular looks like x5 upside/-50% downside and a short term horizon...

interesting case. A few thoughts: 1) I worked out the true free float (excluding insiders, and Royce funds, and treasury shares) is 16.4m shares so US$2.6m! Talk about microcap for retail punters? 2) upside is not great at all: 50%ish ! that is very poor for such an illiquid, dicey and complex situation. Current BV excluding award in GBP=0.26, last price 0.15 so last p/bv=0.58. that is totally fair for such a small Carribbean bank. Now assume award is fully paid, new bv (assuming no tax) will be 0.41. Should discount to book stay equal, price target is 0.23 : that is only a 57% upside whereas stock was trading at 0.08 a few days ago... : recap +8 upside /-7 downside..... absence of positive convexity, sorry I pass! 3) you view the Government of Belize's arguments to the U.S. Supreme Court as "weak at best". Could you please elaborate? reading : www.law360.com/articles/823464/after-dc-circ-loss-belize-wants-justices-to-kill-25m-awards, one learns that: (i) the questions presented in the cases mirror those raised in a case the Supreme Court had accepted earlier this year, Belize v Belize Social Development Ltd. So your assumption of 99% dismissal probability at Supreme Court sounds very optimistic? (ii) "the BCB holdings award came from a secret, illegal tax deal that Belize top court, the Carribean court of justice, has already rejected".... is the moral high ground for Belize? (iii) "enforcement of the award in the US would have serious consequences not only for Belize but would be an attack on the rule of law for young democracies in the Carribean... and an attack of Carribean Court of Justice credibility, with potentially damaging consequences to United States interests in the region....the suits raised questions about how the US ought to weigh its policy in favour of arbitration and about the US governementt opposition to corruption" Please comment

AUM: I manage $18m for now.