Patmo
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Posts posted by Patmo
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I've only ever invested in what everybody here considers crappy businesses and whatnot, netnets, unprofitable, liquidations, distressed m&a and similar types of things. In my experience you will do way better by not getting married to an idea. Sell it as soon as some catalyst plays out, or share price pops a bit unexpectedly. You'll get many, many winners that would've otherwise been stagnant (or losers), and do way better than hanging onto everything for that one idea that might become a monster bagger. With those investments, you have to play small ball for best results. At least it's my experience. So those backtest results don't surprise me so much...
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I'm going to guess that it's probably kind of like poker or chess, where there is just a lower volume of participants that are female but the ability level distribution is about the same as men. There is probably a woman who is a world top 20 level total shark we've never heard of. There is probably not many more, just because there are a ton less females in the game and that's how probabilities go...
Think Jennifer Harman or Judit Polgar, to keep with the microcosm comparisons
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Don't apologize man, that stuff is great, thanks for posting.
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Hi thelads, great thread, thanks for that.
I don't have much in the way of questions, but I am curious about what was ultimately the outcome of the GFC for you. It appears you suffered for a while for having a measured view (for lack of better wording) and being a black sheep of sorts. What happened once it turned out you were right, and do you feel it was worth it? Also, what are you up to nowadays?
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I think he means the thesis itself is obscure rather than company. Baupost stuff can be pretty out there, and its hard to justify cloning if you only dive in because someone else did, without even understanding why they did, let alone figuring out whether you agree...
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Reading your posts is so weird. It's like you are bipolar and it manifests itself in the form of a troll...
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In my humble opinion, value investing is peobably best done as a hobby - you get to keep it a fun part of your life, AND you enjoy the numerous benefits that come from limitless flexibility, including added alpha. Value investing is in its purest form when you answer to no one but yourself.
It might not be for everybody, but for me its good that my career is in something that I like BUT not love. I feel if I did something I truly loved for a living, I would burn myself out within 3 years tops from putting too much energy into what I am doing, and other areas of life would suffer too much, ultimately leaving me less happy than I should be.
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Currently:
CTSH
SAFM
USNU
SMCI
EBN.V
IPGP
GOOGL
SRMC
AGN (short)
IEHC
PHO.V
Do you have a short (1 para) investment case for EBN.V?
No I'm actually long. I'm aware of the historical short thesis but I don't agree. I actually like the stock very much. I haven't been shorting much lately but I would only short a large cap - regardless of your views shorting a microcap is really risky.
I think he meant short in the literal sense - aka 1 paragraph instead of say a 10 page pitch of your long position.
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Florida Man strikes again, this time taking on Wall Street. Who will stop him?
I think this guy watched too much James Bond for his own good...
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There are a few all in on margin stories that are actually real that popped out of there. I remember a kid (like, a teenager. 18-20) going for broke on twitter weeklies, I think he went from a 90k balance to owing 200k overnight, something super stupid like that. Maybe someone has this saved?
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This extends to every friend and family member. I refuse to invest for them.
Same thing for me, with the notable exception of my parents. I know how bad they are with their money, so I made a deal with them that I would add on $100 for every $1000 they shove in their investment savings account with the caveats that they don't have the right to touch any of it until retirement (working on honor system) and I manage it for them. Doesnt stop them from running up credit/debt to buy junk in true blue collar fashion, but that would happen either way, so hopefully the egg I am growing for them will soften their landing a bit.
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I dont want to talk about specific % because if I had a bad year, I would be hiding under a rock, so its not exactly fair. But I did have a very good year, thanks in large part to coal investments and matetially affected by a donut in $ESI. Luckily I was heavily weighted in coal companies, which juiced up my year pretty hard.
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I watch Wealthtrack religiously but this is one installment I fastwarded and skipped. It sounds like just advertising for Greenblatts latest fund.... yadayada.......
Agreed 100%, that is his MO when going on this show. He always only goes there to market his latest product Go back to his other interviews and you will see they are all the same thing...
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Scott Hall is 33% genius, 33% nuts and 33% troll. The remaining 1%? Well, it is 33% genius, 33% nuts and 33% troll. The remaining 1%? Well...
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Yawn, I've heard that "buying what no one will own" story 10+ years ago. Yeah, sometimes it works - when someone like Picasso does really deep DD and buys a special situation. And then sometimes it works crap. Buying industries in secular decline, good for you if you really buy it supercheap and get out of the way of the steamroller before it flattens you. Or turnarounds that usually don't turn. The fact that nobody else is touching some stocks or industries does not make them wrong and you right. Contrarianism only works if you have a variant perception. LOL. I said it. ;D Good luck, have fun. :)
Sure that's true. But you can also apply that statement to literally every single strategy ever conceived. "Yeah, sometimes growth investing works - when someone like Joe Superstar does really deep DD. And then sometimes it works like crap. Buying industries at triple digit multiples, good for you if the growth pans out. The fact that everybody else is touching stocks or industries does not make you right."
Of course a better investor will see more success than a less skilled one, that's basic logic. But apples to apples, take a guy looking where everybody else won't, wherever he is on the skill continuum, you will see him do better than his doppelganger who isn't looking there. It's like letting the contrarian start 15 meters ahead on the 100m course, you start out with a huge handicap. It's systematic, well documented and easily explained.
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If you want to be a real value investor these days, buy the type of securities that most managers would get fired for owning. There's simply too much pressure to be like everyone else when you manage others peoples money. It's simply not worth it for a manager to answer why they own Valeant or whatever happens to be taking a beating from popular publications. Creates a lot of opportunities these days. At the moment I'm a bit intrigued by certain stocks in the retail sector...
Holy crap Picasso, You are like my internet big brother or something... Agreed 100% again...
Value investing has always been dead, and what is dead may never die (isn't that a profound use of GoT quotes? They don't call me The Philosopher for nothing........................)
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Superb video, thanks for sharing
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I wish mr. Burry would come on here and explain his rationale on these investments himself, that would be priceless
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It's weird how this company keeps pumping out bright and shiny press releases one after the other. Are they trying to send a signal to the market? So far the market hasn't bought it
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Hi,
I think that since accounting is the language of business, we all can benefit from having a place we can ask questions about it.
I hope that most of you will use this thread to ask questions and answer them.
In order to keep it organized and searchable, if you ask a new question please start it by writing its number at the beginning, and if you answer, please write the question number at the beginning of your answer.
Let me start by asking my first question.
#1 When company XYZ balance sheet says it has 100m in long term debt, does that amount takes into consideration the amount that will be paid in interest or is it only the principal that should be paid ?
That's the principal only, you record the interest expense as it is incurred, not upfront. The interest liability is going to be recorded in a separate account as a current liab, eg.:
Yr1
Dr.Cash 10000
Cr.LT Debt 10000
Yr2
Dr.Int Exp 1000
Cr.Int Payable 1000
Dr. Int Payable 1000
Dr. LT Debt 1000
Cr.Cash 2000
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Big mistakes: Not enough focus on portfolio management. Fishing in the wrong places. Trying to be cute/sharp instead of KISS. Overpaying for comfort.
These are the mistakes I avoid the most so that I stack the odds on my side enough that whatever mistakes I make turn profitable in the long run
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No. This rally is for real Slim Shady. All you other Slim Shadys are just imitating.
including the one one with orange hair toupe
Mom's pari passu
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Depends on the level of talent
Real example of another activity, totally unrelated to investing
I have a friend who practices like a dog and never got out of bottom 5%
I practiced like a dog and SLOWLY made it to the top 4%... of the top 1%. Once I simmered down I dropped down to maybe top 2 or 5%, and it feels like bottom 5%
I met a guy who barely ever practiced and in the short time I knew him, I saw him crush the former national champ
Then there's the world champ, who is without doubt a mix of my two friends (the good qualities about them)
Doing work won't hurt your chances, but you'll sacrifice other parts of your life for sure, if you have no talent it wouldn't be worth the trouble
Peace! 8)
In what?
A popular competitive videogame
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Depends on the level of talent
Real example of another activity, totally unrelated to investing
I have a friend who practices like a dog and never got out of bottom 5%
I practiced like a dog and SLOWLY made it to the top 4%... of the top 1%. Once I simmered down I dropped down to maybe top 2 or 5%, and it feels like bottom 5%
I met a guy who barely ever practiced and in the short time I knew him, I saw him crush the former national champ
Then there's the world champ, who is without doubt a mix of my two friends (the good qualities about them)
Doing work won't hurt your chances, but you'll sacrifice other parts of your life for sure, if you have no talent it wouldn't be worth the trouble
Peace! 8)
Joel Greenblatt on Special Situations: In-Depth Class Notes
in General Discussion
Posted
A special situation that I like right now (altough mr. Greenblatt may not approve since it's merger arbitrage) is GNW. At the time of announcement of the sale of its business, the market valued its operations at $5.50 per share (and on an upward trend). But the company announced a sale at $5.25 - below the market value at the time. The share price cratered pretty hard to create a synthetic spread. The company's operations improved drastically in the past couple quarters, since the original announcement, which has also not been reflected in the share price.
So you flip a coin where you earn a 60% spread if the merger ends up closing, or about as much if it doesn't and the market value rerates back to what it was (possibly more, given the improvement in results). Nobody wants to touch it because it's a big huge insurance black box with tons of moving parts, and they are selling to a Chinese company to boot. Thing is, the market already told you what it is willing pay for the business without a merger in place, and that is your downside...
You can be a stock market genius was by far my favorite book on investing, and I wish he'd put out more books of his battle stories.