Patmo
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Posts posted by Patmo
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What company was a 7 banger which went to 0? The fundamentals must have changed.
We should also consider that position sizing isn’t just about how much you put in at the start but how you adjust the position size over time. Many people like to trim winners because they feel it’s too risky to allow their portfolio to become more concentrated. I think this is the wrong way to look at it. I’d be interested to know what others think.
On trimming winners. I’ve struggled with it. I’ve left a lot of money selling early. I’m going to try letting winners ride this year
Well if it makes you feel any better, I've lost a lot of money holding on too long lol... a 7 bagger to 0, and a 5 bagger to a 70% loss in the past couple years.
I'd rather regret squeezing another 20% of juice out of these investments if I had the choice.
Yeah, FELP, lots of discussions on it here. To be fair I should have never put money in it in the first place, but that's a different topic altogether.
The other one is KRN, a cash box with a construction ready potash mining project that had its financing announced but the deal fell through quickly. Tons of boardroom drama in that one. The founder got in bed with the wrong people and got thrown out the window a couple times.
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We should also consider that position sizing isn’t just about how much you put in at the start but how you adjust the position size over time. Many people like to trim winners because they feel it’s too risky to allow their portfolio to become more concentrated. I think this is the wrong way to look at it. I’d be interested to know what others think.
On trimming winners. I’ve struggled with it. I’ve left a lot of money selling early. I’m going to try letting winners ride this year
Well if it makes you feel any better, I've lost a lot of money holding on too long lol... a 7 bagger to 0, and a 5 bagger to a 70% loss in the past couple years.
I'd rather regret squeezing another 20% of juice out of these investments if I had the choice.
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Very cool discussion and interesting viewpoints. I have become more and more concentrated for practical purposes - I don't have the time/energy/will to keep tabs on enough companies to a degree I am comfortable putting money in so I just dump more money in the stuff I already know. It might increase risk of ruin, I dunno, we'll see.
I have spent some time/energy in the past on various companies (not a crazy amount but just enough) so I have a decent broad view on their value and can catch up to the news quickly if something drops in price substantially. I made most of my money going in and out of the same few companies that have somewhat volatile share prices, like TECK. When I venture out of this group of companies I am familiar with, I get burned more often than not.
One day I'll just say "screw this" and go 100% google and forget everything until I retire.
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Seems a little extra fishy that the thesis of scrambling together a bunch of technical standouts can produce gravity defying results falls apart so badly as soon as it opens up to a little scrutiny.
Rentech, the kind of fund that can't take a leak if you're looking...
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Genworth financial, GNW. Years of suffering through the most painful M&A transaction ever. The deal more or less fell out recently, GNW called the deal off after about 50 extensions, but mentioned it would still welcome a close if the buyer came back quickly with financing in hand (I hope they don't).
Shares are still priced at a fat discount to merger at 3.60ps, 4 years ago the business was a lot worse off than it is now and natural owners (aka non arbitragers) were paying just about the merger price (~5.40ps, shares traded slightly higher on day of deal disclosure), and was on a major rising trend. So either the buyer comes back hat in hand and the deal closes within 3 months for a quick 50% gain or (hopefully) the deal is fully terminated and share price rerates significantly as natural owners come back to the fray.
Trades at 10% BV, 4.7x ttmEBITDA (per koyfin) and 3x forward PE, to give you a quick-and-dirty look into its current valuation.
Covid is sending many old people who were claiming long term care insurance to a slightly earlier demise than anticipated, so claim terminations are on the rise. They're forecasted to net over $1ps in profit in 2021.They're also about to IPO 20% of their mortgage insurance unit to pay off a note due in September (refinancing is also on the table), and it's pretty much smooth sailing from there.
There's some hair on it but I'll let others figure it out if they're interested, have a peek.
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I guess sharing research and opinions about stocks in online message forums is market manipulation?
What world are we living in?
I mean, they're just investigating, no judgement is made yet. But I get your point, of all the shady crap that goes on, this is the one they decide to delve into...
Remember the good old days, when the SEC were literally handed a full blown case into a hundred billion dollar ponzi scheme, and did absolutely nothing with it?
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And this is the text response from <name removed> who for whatever reason changed his first post.
Backstabbing POS.Really classy behavior here Picasso. Personal attacks and insults. Way to go. ::)
Oh my irony, it hurts
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Also, I dont know Roark at all. But I would just generally say that 95% of the folks Ive met in this business arent good people and be careful because most of the people who act like "friends" will quickly forget your name the second they no longer benefit financially from you.
That's true everywhere, just that the benefits random people derive are usually social instead of financial. Anybody who's gone through the grind knows people will treat you very differently if you enjoy success in almost any endeavor, whether there is money to gain or not. And if you suck or mess up, you'll be treated like ass. Unfortunate but it's human nature. I bet Picasso had his fair share of unpleasant encounters with people that were not financially tied to him, too. But then again success can get to someone's head and change them. In my POV everybody sucks, first person included, just have to roll with it.
At the end of the day Picasso's got skills to spare and he puts in the necessary effort, it's a savage hit now but things will turn out fine for him in due time.
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Haha yeah, I lost a decent chunk on FELP. I have this knack for getting into multibaggers that then go to 0, and letting it donut without selling.
I imagine his life hasn't been too pleasant the past couple years. The flip side of concentration... One minute you're a rockstar, the next you're a fraudulent piece of doodoo.
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I would look at the e-sports area as well.
There was a blog post a few years back on the favorable economics of businesses which run industry conferences. I think it was in relation to Nielson or Reed Elsevier (now RELX). I forget the exact company.
But the jist was, organizing these trade conferences was a good business as you get paid up front by vendors and attendees, and it's a recurring item.
To that end, if I were to invest here I would invest in the growth of these e-sports event organizers.
The thing with gaming is, it's a lot like VC investing. Every year get tons of trash games but a few massive hits. It's difficult to know which will be the hits beforehand. But event organizers are getting paid after-the-fact, once these hit games have been established. Takes the speculation out of it.
I'll lay off the sarcasm pipe here and add a bit of empirical/anecdoctal evidence (although I know that is useless and uninteresting, just ask the Great Guru about his research for real, tangible knowledge).
Angel Munoz did so well organizing the CPL (a biannual tournament) years ago that he had to hide where he lived, in fear of community backlash at how nice his (main) residence was compared to the tournament purses. Organizing 2 tournaments a year in some basement was his full time occupation at the time. There was a minor scandal around it when people found out. That was long ago though, other parties may have sharpened up and driven margins down.
Plenty of events go bust though. I wouldn't be surprised that it's one of those things that do really well or really poorly. Certainly no one I've ever talked to who organized tourneys has ever expressed regret, even 15-man doritofests crammed in a single office down in Podunk town, right by Nowhere City.
Anywhoo.
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You seem to be unable to distinguish between the gaming industry (which has never been better) and the equity prices (which are obviously doing poorly). Just because the stock prices are down doesn't mean the gaming industry is dying, as you heavily allude to.
With that fundamental bias, there's no point in continuing this conversation further.
Yeah, I agree with you that Castanza's post is all over the place. It conflates all sorts of different issues and games (Diablo Immortal hasn't even been released yet!) in ways that are not productive.
The ATVI thread has lots of clear thinking on the video game industry in general. If it were up to me (and it's not) I would confine all video game related posts exclusively to that thread.
Diablo Immortal is a huge disappointment before launch. They went against their entire player base by choosing to only launch it on mobile. That was my point. I recommend watching the Q&A.
But if I'm wrong then I'm wrong. That's how I view the gaming industry and it's enough to keep me out of it.
It's not that your conclusion is necessary wrong, it's that some of what you're posting doesn't make any sense.
In your initial post you listed games that were "highly anticipated", but proved to be disappointing on release. I could quibble with a number of these, but only mentioned one in my earlier post: Diablo Immortal.
Not only was Diablo Immortal not highly anticipated, Blizzard's core fan base didn't even want the game at all. They wanted a Diablo 4 announcement. Also, Diablo Immortal may prove to be a highly successful mobile game. As I mentioned before, it hasn't even launched yet. You seem to recognize most of this on some level, yet you are doubling down on your contention that it was a "highly anticipated" game that disappointed on release.
This will probably be my last response in this thread. I'd rather eat a bucket full of sand than continue this inane and largely pointless conversation.
I think his main gripe is how massively the quality of the games is declining. The companies are doing better and better financially, yet the gaming experience is getting crappier and crappier. Everything is devolving into a masquerade for casinos purposefully designed to prey on children. This gripe is shared by virtually everyone who has been a gaming consumer since before that era.
It's great for short sighted investors and managers with annual bonuses, but one would not be a fool to question whether that is a sustainable practice long term. The zeitgeist has already started waking up to it a little. I think the gaming (and esports) industry still has a massive runway for growth, but when the whole casino thing eventually blows up, it's going to be a significant dink.
Personally, I find that even the bait product is becoming bland as hell. At the last E3, 90% of the game trailers looked like they were for the same damn game. No joke. I'm way too young to already be going "Back in my day..." about video games and esports.
But I don't know why I'm even rehashing this stuff that everybody already knows. My opinion is worthless to begin with, after all I've only been hopelessly addicted to, and involved with, competitive gaming for 25 years. That glory guy has done his research, he even googled how many people watched the LoL world championships (hint: as many as his twitter followers. same nationality too. Coincidence?).
He really knows his stuff, we should stop sharing our opinions and viewpoints on things that excite us as would normally happen on a website designed specifically for that purpose. Instead we should ingest everything we can from the Great Guru himself. I bet that Castanza guy, he never played a game in his life. He definitely didn't create this thread because he has an interest in the industry and something to say about it. I bet he purely created this thread hoping to market his name as an expert analyst in the space, like every smart guy such as glory the Great Guru does on cobf. But you see, Castanza DIDN'T EVEN GOOGLE TWITCH VIEWERSHIP NUMBERS! Let's throw him out too, we already have our resident expert on all things related to the gaming industry. Everybody SHUT UP, put glory the Great Guru on the mic. Who's he gonna diss next?
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You seem to be unable to distinguish between the gaming industry (which has never been better) and the equity prices (which are obviously doing poorly). Just because the stock prices are down doesn't mean the gaming industry is dying, as you heavily allude to.
With that fundamental bias, there's no point in continuing this conversation further.
You're quite unnecessarily snarky when discussing game publishers on this forum.
He just spends his time trying to flex like a 19 year old university freshman, and comes across as a pompous autist instead of the slick videogame industry authority he's trying to position himself as. But I've heard he has 200 million Chinese followers on his twitter, that's pretty impressive.
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What better resource than the handbook itself:
I highly recommend the digital version but if you MUST have it in print:
https://www.cpastore.ca/product/cpa-canada-handbook-accounting-non-member-print/815
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He may not have won many games but he invested in his teams future. He left the team loaded with draft picks. He may or may not have been successful in the long run, but I respect what he was trying to accomplish, I see a turnaround in the near future.
2016
•1st round pick – 76ers or Kings (Sixers get better of their own pick or Kings pick, assuming Kings pick falls in top-10).
•1st round pick – Lakers (unless it falls in the top 3)
•1st round pick – Heat (unless it falls in the top 10. Can swap with GSW if GSW pick is better)
•1st round pick – Thunder (unless it falls in top 15. Can swap with GSW if GSW pick is better)
2017
•1st round pick – 76ers or Kings (Sixers get better of their own pick or Kings pick).
2018
•1st round pick – 76ers
•1st round pick – Kings (top-10 protected, has to be 2 years after Kings pick to Chicago conveys)
•2nd round pick – 76ers
•2nd round pick – Nets or Cavs (whichever is better)
•2nd round pick – Clippers or Knicks (whichever is better)
2019
•1st round pick – 76ers
•2nd round pick – 76ers
•2nd round pick – Bucks or Kings (whichever is better)
•2nd round pick – Knicks
2020
•1st round pick – 76ers
•2nd round pick – 76ers
•2nd round pick – Nets
•2nd round pick – Knicks
2021
•1st round pick – 76ers
•2nd round pick – 76ers
•2nd round pick – Knicks
Thanks for sharing this data. To use this data in a business context. This company( team) has a lot of assets that aren't earning a return. A activist would salivate to take control of this company and increase the earning power of the business. So this company (team) is a cigar butt. Time is its enemy.
Except the assets that aren't earning have a hard catalyst (the draft) when they will convert into valuable players.
I think a better analogy is a company that had done a bunch of capital spending on something (new plant, real estate development whatever) that hasn't started earning yet.
Yeah, complete opposite of a cigar butt...
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Wake me up in 6-8 months, then we'll make the big bucks baby
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You guys are on drugs
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My question is more about the timing rather than the value.
Let's say a t-shirt company offers $1000 worth of t-shirts to the radio station in exchange for $1000 worth of advertising. Let's say the radio receives the $1000 worth of t-shirts in month one, and the radio station airs $1000 worth of advertising in month 3.
I would think the $1000 in t-shirts would be considered deferred income until end of the month 3 (air the advertisements). Also, the radio station should expense the $1000 advertising cost at the end of month 3. Assuming the cost of $1000 worth of advertising is less than $1000.
In the situation I'm describing, the radio station is counting the revenue income at month 3, but delaying the expensing of the cost of performing the advertising.
This seems wrong to me if this is actually how they are operating.
That's easier to follow. You are talking about revenue matching, and you are correct, the cost of advertizing needs to happen in the same period as the revenue was generated. But to repeat myself the legal period is a year, not quarter or month. I'm sure there's a level of materiality that's going to affect this since 10Q's are required to be published and people would flip their shit if Amazon reported all 0's on their quarterly FS, to take an extreme example. But for practical purposes, your buddy is in the clear legally speaking so long as he recognizes the expense in the same year. His employers might have a different viewpoint, though. I'm not one to blame a guy for trying to maximize his outcome given the ruleset given to him, but play with fire and you'll get burned sooner or later.
Again, not an expert.
https://accountingexplained.com/financial/principles/matching
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Not an expert on the topic but the overarching accounting principles don't change. It's probably just going to be booked to another asset account than cash at some kind of reasonably estimated value. As far as timing goes, the expense needs to be recorded in the same period as the revenue it was used to generate. From a financial reporting standpoint the period is the year, not quarter. Otherwise it's up to the company to have the internal controls in place to prevent your friend from gaming his bonuses. Somebody else can correct me if I'm wrong, as I'm making statements as if they were facts but I'm not necessarily 100% certain.
I must say your question is really hard to decipher. I think in part because it feels like you are mixing up terminology. For example, I think (correct me if I'm wrong) that when you refer to accruing an expense, you mean delaying the booking of the transaction altogether, rather than recognizing the expense as a liability. You also mention expensing the receipt of cash, and I think in some parts you say goods/services are received when you may mean they are delivered. Altogether it's really confusing.
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whut, Whut, WHUT????
If you are looking at getting a "yacht"....I would think that is a very easy purchase...
You simply write a check and that is all.
Financing? WTF??? If you need financing for a "yacht", you don't need a yacht!
I would also think the same thing goes for high end exotics/sports cars.
Everybody I know that has high end sports cars simply writes a check for them...financing is not even thought of or an option.
Back in the day when I owned a high end Corvette and was thinking of getting a Porsche...I asked the Porsche salesman how many people financed their cars...he said it was under 40%, and way less than that for the higher end stuff.
I see signs of the bubble around me every day...I'm getting nervous...
People levering up to the gills for consumption, a classic...
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In the end that is what these games are all about for me, fun with friends.
That's what all the fish recreational players say and do ;). Constantly trying big bluffs and big calls chasing that epic moment of being right, quickly forgetting all the times it didn't work.
Or the people who have the social grace to dick around when the occasion warrants it. Are you that guy who tryhards against kids and taunts them and crap?
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I used to play poker. But now I am learning to play bridge, inspired by WEB. I am reading books and signed up for a class for beginners.
It is said keeping your brain alertitive will also help extend your life.
Bridge hype. I come from a blue collar small town type of family and my grandfather's brother brought the game along when he moved back after retiring from a senior job at a large Canadian bank. I remember my dad, uncle, granddad and granddad's brother playing til 5 am every other weekend. Good times. Their wives and kids got in on it too, and the uncle's wife was probably the best player of them all, by my estimation.
The grandpa brother taught everyone the basics of how to bid based off some popular system, and the others quickly became beasts. My dad, mom, brother and I still get together from time to time to play some games, have a drink and enjoy some time together. Our bidding is pretty much nonsense, but we make some alright plays and have tons of fun.
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GNW
Are you concerned about a repricing of the takeover?
No
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I have a friend who took on everyone at 1 for 1, he was betting on Mac... So you could bet a grand on Mayweather with him, turn around and bet 400 or something on McGregor and win either way. Pretty good "arb opportunity" but I didnt see the guy in a while and it would have been scummy to actively seek him out just to take advantage of his faith in the irish dude.
And yes, 25% return on investment in Mayweather is +EV for sure. Nowhere near as much as Holly Holmes vs Rondha Rousey, but a good spot nonetheless. Im keeping it small ball
What are you doing? - (Hobbies Thread)
in General Discussion
Posted
Boxing 6 days a week, learning Korean for 3.
For boxing I spar 3x a week, 2x with competitive guys and 1x with a group of 50+ white collar guys. I also help the club with coaching since it's a not for profit, though I'm really not a coach.
For Korean I take classes on Preply. I always had an interest in Asian culture in general but a previous Chinese girlfriend wanted me to learn Cantonese and the experience put me off the idea for a long time. Korean is 100x more enjoyable to learn.