ExpectedValue

Martin Luther King, Jr. - 1964 winner

Great questions! I'm going to do my interview this weekend, so I should have all the answers posted this by Sunday night.

will do

I've also set up a page if you'd rather submit questions in the comments section there: http://streetcapitalist.com/2009/10/07/submit-questions-interview-with-the-bank-analyst/ or feel free to shoot me an e-mail [email protected]

My interview with Paul Sonkin in August was pretty popular. I'm doing a new interview with a value investing bank analyst who works for a large buy side fund. Unfortunately, the interview has to remain anonymous but he's legit and very bright. I know that a number of value investors find financials tough to analyze, so this could be a good time to ask some questions about investing in that area.

I managed to combine all the memos into one PDF: http://streetcapitalist.com/2009/09/26/oaktree-capital-memos-from-our-chairman-1990-2009/

since Scribd is extremely annoying- direct link to PDF document: http://www.bestinver.es/pdf/articulos_value/The%20Superinvestors%20of%20Graham%20and%20Doddsville%20by%20Warren%20Buffett.pdf

http://www.sequoiafund.com/reports/transcript09.htm

I wonder about that $14B figure quite a bit. If you go back through the 13F-HR filings, you'll see the fund hit about $14B when Sears traded at much higher levels.So what I'm thinking about is whether they're pegging his entire fund as just that or what. I find it a little hard to believe that his entire hedge fund consists of a huge stake in Sears Holdings plus some large stakes in AutoZone and AutoNation.

The list above takes an interesting departure. Rakesh and Prem are basically well-known value investors (mostly in equity securities) of their particular countries/regions. Then from Li Ka-Shing to Al-Waleed, you get a list of billionaire regional businessmen who own diversified conglomerates. Finally there's Slim who's probably richer but less diversified. I feel like Slim would actually be more akin to a Bill Gates/Rockefeller than Buffett.

Albert Frère, Belgium Paul Desmarais, Canada

whoops. you're right.

Name change. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation instead of Cascade Investments. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166559/000104746909007831/a2194180z13f-hr.txt

Yeah, I found the Wyeth deal to be sort of counter to the vision Berkowitz had for Pfizer. It seemed like he was looking for them to do small nuts and bolts acquisitions rather than a huge deal like Wyeth which may be more difficult to close.

looks like Mohnish picked up shares of Brookfield and Potash since the last filing.

Why do you find it hard to believe? Strangely, I actually eat burgers a lot and so I have a good grasp of their pricing (here in Texas but also from my recent trip to NYC). At Red Robin the burgers are at least 1/3rd pound and they come with unlimited fries. Usually though, most customers will not opt to re-fill the fries. A similar price point is at Chili's where you can order a Big Mouth Burger and Fries for around $9.00. One could argue that the "unlimited fries" warrants the extra dollar. Applebees has a new line of "Realburgers" with the similar $9-10 pricing. Really to get your best value you'd be best off going to Fuddruckers where for about $10 you can get a similar sized burger, fries, AND a soft drink. But yeah, $9-10 is what to expect for a decent sized burger and fries these days. The pricing held up when I sampled a few well-rated burgers in NYC (Paul's, Shake Shack).

Hi Guys, I thought you might be interested in my interview with Paul Sonkin of Hummingbird Value Funds. Sonkin takes a really interesting approach, he invests mainly in micro/nano-cap companies and participates in a lot of arbitrage situations. I think that he has some insights that could be really helpful for small fund managers and investors. Here's a link to the interview: http://streetcapitalist.com/2009/08/10/my-interview-with-paul-sonkin/

I saw Calculated Risk respond: This is very different for me ... First, if I've let a little hubris slip into my recent posts, I apologize. My goal is to be the most humble blogger in the world (an old joke). Second, I am not an investment advisor and I do not offer investment advice. I try to provide some hopefully useful data with sources - especially concerning real estate - and then add my own analysis. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Please keep the above in mind ... and although I rarely discuss investing, I'd like to quickly explain why I went mostly long in my own portfolio in late February and early March. Several readers can vouch for my change in view (like Brian and Michael). I only share my investment ideas with people I know - and who I know are responsible for their own actions. Sentiment in February and March was for a Great Depression II, and it was clear to me that several key indicators were about to change: auto sales, single family starts and new home sales were three I mentioned frequently on this blog. I figured when that data changed, the sentiment would change. Buying at the time was difficult. And yes, I'm still long (although that could change at any time, and I will not disclose it). The reason I bring this up is the Case-Shiller report today really bothered me. To be more accurate, the reporting on the Case-Shiller report bothers me. As I mentioned earlier today, there is a strong seasonal component to house prices, and although the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller index was down (Case-Shiller was reported as up by the media) - I don't think the seasonal factor accurately captures the recent swings in the NSA data. I have no crystal ball - and maybe prices have bottomed - but this potentially means a negative surprise for the market later this year - perhaps when the October or November Case-Shiller data is released (October will be released near the end of December). If exuberance builds about house prices, and the market receives a negative surprise, be careful. Just something to watch later this year (I will post about house prices, but I will not mention the possible impact on the stock market in future posts). And a few comments on the reporting today. The WSJ reported: Home Prices Post Monthly Increase, Data Are Latest to Signal a Bottom in the Property Market The Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas, produced by Standard & Poor's, rose 0.5% in May from the month before, the first increase after 34 straight months of decline. No mention that they are using the NSA data. And this would be a weird housing cycle if residential investment and house prices bottomed at almost the same time. See: Housing: Remember the Two Bottoms! And from MSNBC: Crescenzi: Case-Shiller Supports Risk Assets If there’s one indicator that investors are likely to embrace as their yardstick for the housing market predicament it is the Case-Shiller home price index. This is the index that turned lower in 2006, presaging the eruption of the credit crisis. Its apparent stabilization hence marks a turn in the housing dilemma. Although a plethora of data have pointed to stabilization in housing of late, only the Case-Shiller index has the power to sway doubters, chiefly because it captures trends in the subprime mortgage market better than other indicators. Like I said, I could be wrong about prices ... but this is the kind of information that is being disseminated by the MSM, and that means a negative surprise is possible. Not to just pick on the MSM reporting. I was sent (by several readers) a housing analysis yesterday. It was some sort of weird mash up between the excellent David Rosenberg and some blogger. The charts are great, but the analysis is sometimes inaccurate. The "research" made comments like this for the NAHB HMI: “Sales outlook is stuck at 26, and anything under 50 is a contraction”. Not correct. The NAHB index is a sentiment indicator and doesn’t indicate contraction. Any number under 50 indicates more builders view sales as poor than good. See this chart - the index moves with new home sales and housing starts. And another example: "Architectural billings Index slipped five points last month to 37.7 - a sign residential construction is just bouncing along bottom". The ABI is primarily for non-residential construction. I'm not trying to pick on or embarrass any particular publication or blogger. But it helps to know your sources. And I could be wrong about prices; we will know when the October and November data is released (a six month wait!) Best to all. Now back to my regular posts ...

Yeah, that's the book Cardboard.

Options by Natenberg

Seems great for teaching kids some personal finance tips: http://online.wsj.com/video/clip-warren-buffett-secret-millionaire-club/31F28D12-5EA4-4515-9CB2-62F9C0CF64CE.html

they drastically benefited from the takeover of AIG and the TARP. Without it, they'd have to raise capital at a very bad time.

I feel like the toughest issue here with media companies is normalizing earnings. It seems like a lot of them are losing ground to newer players.

he was also a patented inventor! http://bit.ly/DLzgd

This isn't what you want, but might help anyway. There's a pretty good book called King Icahn, which races his career and situations he's been involved in. It ends shortly after the TWA debacle. Pretty good book to get an idea about how he works. It's out of print now, so might have to check your library.