Fat Pitch

Too early to tell, but the most legit project at the moment is ESD. Incentives are being modified for a v2 to come out soon. I do think this is the future, but have just glanced briefly at the algo stablecoins. Any recs for leaders so far?

No one will care about Tethers or any stable coin when the market finally decides to back an algorithmic stable coin.

When does regret set in? $40k, $80k, $500k? ;)

Taking a small victory lap. For those that think you have missed the boat you have to realize we are still early. Bitcoin going towards 6 figures is almost a foregone conclusion. Defi on the other hand look more interesting. Protocols like AAVE have successfully ported all the utility of commercial banks into smart contracts and removed 99.99% of the overhead costs of running such an operation. We are still very early as these protocols start to soak up capital across the globe as a banking platform for everyone. I think we are going to witness these projects surpassing the market capitalization of the current large financial institutions. There's a shift happening at rapid speed. A software business analytics company decided to allocate 250mm into Bitcoin instead of holding treasuries that pay nothing. People are slowly waking up that Bitcoin isn't a currency to be used day to day, but rather a substitute for the global bond market. Also there's lots of innovation coming out of Ethereum via the "defi" movement which is basically porting all the functionalities of banks, Wall Street, etc onto the Ethereum stack which will probably spread to other smart contract layer 1s. Having been in the space for the last 4 years+ this environment was what Bitcoin was built for. We are going to blow past ATHs and melt faces 8)

Yes it's a form of arbitrage, but also understand the middleman is literally cut out thus you are witnessing the "true" yields that would be possible in traditional markets if regulations/rent seekers were eliminated. When you look at BlockFi, Nexo and others that are the centralized regulated version of defi on Ethereum their yields are half of that of defi.

After I unloaded all my defi positions during the mini bubble I'm only holding BTC. I think the bullish trend in BTC, regulatory crackdown on exchanges and period of disillusionment occurring in Defi makes this sector untouchable for the foreseeable future. When I got into defi projects the valuations for Aave, SNX and others were 10mm-30mm. Even after the massive drawdowns they are hovering around 300-500mm. I think there's still more pain ahead.

There's demand for stable coins in crypto for leverage/trading and other purposes. As a result yields are hovering around 5%-15% depending on the platform and liquidity is spread out. The yields are juiced up if the platform is offering a separate token on top for governance for providing liquidity. YFI builds out vaults (smart contracts) that allocates users stable coins to the best yield opportunities in the space automatically so users don't have to keep track of dozens of platforms and juggle their assets. YFI takes a cut for providing this service and that's how the cash flows are generated. What I want to highlight is in the crypto space a single person can write a few lines of code and start generating $50k a day in fees really fast if they find product market fit. How many other industries gives you this kind of opportunity? We are barely seeing the tip of the iceberg in terms of what can be done in this space. It seems like they get income from other tokens (both 5% yearly “maintenance”) and 0.5% withdrawal fees. This sounds like a frocking expensive checking account for users to me.

I was in the same boat as you when Andre released the tokens. I bought as much as I could. While I like the model, the earnings aren't exactly stable. Most of the TVL build up was the result of unsustainable yields on over inflated defi valuations. I sold everything on the run up around $30k. The thing that stood out during the defi mini bubble, zero effort anon forks was able to siphon quite a bit of value. Imagine what focused efforts with VC funding can accomplish.

~10% at this point. Added a hair during COVID drawdown, but not much. Already very large and bumping my own person position limits. Am optimistic about the direction and recent events, but definitely consistently disappointed on timing. +1 here. ~10% and with the understanding this may drag on for another 3-4 years, with lots of volatility around the elections. Just don't see how the institutions can be recapped without taking care of JPS shareholders; CBO report pretty much said the same. Major risks are delayed timing, being dependent on the kindness of strangers, and another attempt at nationalization by Democrats in that order. +1 The IRR on this is still very attractive relative to the market even if you assume years and years of delay. I'd be more worried if I had to manage clients through volatility When you factor in opportunity costs and inflation that has been occurring this investment has been an absolute disaster. stupid remark, fat pitch. what inflation? over what period of time? what alternatives? if you compare SPY to FNMAS for example over various periods of time, FNMAS beat SPY more often than not. Inflation has been averaging 9%-10% the last few years depending which part of the country you are living in: https://chapwoodindex.com/ As for opportunity costs there are plenty. If you are savvy enough to read & and analyze smart contract risk you can become a liquidity provider and earn 100%+/yr via US stable coins on Ethereum. There are even insurance you can purchase to protect yourself against bugs for a couple percentage points of the capital you are providing. There are plenty of other options, but I rather not divulge them.

~10% at this point. Added a hair during COVID drawdown, but not much. Already very large and bumping my own person position limits. Am optimistic about the direction and recent events, but definitely consistently disappointed on timing. +1 here. ~10% and with the understanding this may drag on for another 3-4 years, with lots of volatility around the elections. Just don't see how the institutions can be recapped without taking care of JPS shareholders; CBO report pretty much said the same. Major risks are delayed timing, being dependent on the kindness of strangers, and another attempt at nationalization by Democrats in that order. +1 The IRR on this is still very attractive relative to the market even if you assume years and years of delay. I'd be more worried if I had to manage clients through volatility When you factor in opportunity costs and inflation that has been occurring this investment has been an absolute disaster.

There's a shift happening at rapid speed. A software business analytics company decided to allocate 250mm into Bitcoin instead of holding treasuries that pay nothing. People are slowly waking up that Bitcoin isn't a currency to be used day to day, but rather a substitute for the global bond market. Also there's lots of innovation coming out of Ethereum via the "defi" movement which is basically porting all the functionalities of banks, Wall Street, etc onto the Ethereum stack which will probably spread to other smart contract layer 1s. Having been in the space for the last 4 years+ this environment was what Bitcoin was built for. We are going to blow past ATHs and melt faces 8)

No more top ramen for shareholders? 8)

Seems like the capital requirements are now known otherwise why hire the financial advisers?

Something is going to happen by May. Non bank servicers are all about to fold and it appears Treasury wants this to happen. Should be bullish for GSEs, but market is pricing in r-ship liquidation. Heads are going to roll soon. Yes, if there is a path of less resistance and easy way to solve this, why isn't it happening yet. Why wait when the result could be catastrophic? It seems that we're missing something. I agree. The joke appears on us. Mnuchin could have easily highlighted the FnF $100bn+ net govt payday when being plastered on his $500bn fund but he stayed silent. Add this to the list of the Trump team punting for 3.5 years, Ginsburg 2017, Atlas recent silence, SC refusing to take the case this term, Lamberth and Sweeney 2023+ after appeals, Calabria muzzled over NWS illegality post FHFA installation, etc -- and voila jr pref @ 17pct of par and common price below 2016 election date.

So housing is a large % of the US economy and the Treasury is going to gamble with that market to keep that $30 billion overpayment from the GSEs? Sounds very reckless, but maybe they are looking for that political cover from the MBA lobby and Congress to go ahead. Or on the other hand they may be looking at legal pathways to zero out shareholders once and for all. I think a final PSPA agreement was viewed as a summerish to fall activity before all of this hit the fan. FnF may have issues after 2-3 months per Calabria which gets us to mid summer. Maybe if things are looking bleak by then its the catalyst that gets things done a little early. I have always felt treasury would not act unless forced. This previously seemed only possible legally but this certainly is a new fold. Political cover will more then be there as this was a bipartisan bill that forced this and MBA and the assoc cast of characters are howling. I guess taking a step back even from a non shareholder view I would question why would'nt you just do a final amendment and move on? The upside to doing another amendment is becoming the best option for all parties, even those that were adamant opponents before. The rub for treasury would be losing 30B.