SpecOps
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Posts posted by SpecOps
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Sorry I missed all the replies, have been busy fielding the queries, I had far more interest in this than I anticipated which is great, and plenty of kinks to iron out have been found.
As Nate says, data quality is very difficult to manage, with such huge datasets there are always errors. Tools like this and even expensive options like Bloomberg terminals are just that, tools, you will still need to go and check the SEC filings before committing money. I can't recall specifics but Morningstar was the first feed I tried and I found errors in big (>$100bn) companies, like shareholders equity was wrong or revenue etc, which really put me off. Some of their competitors offered data which you could click at individual item level and it would load a copy of the actual filing and where that number featured. Of course that was only for big companies, but you can see the different levels of detail and accuracy of data available here. Free data sources are ok, but are riddled with errors and generally dont go into much depth. I've set up spreadsheets that trawl and use these free data in the past but the reliability was so inconsistent that it was quite useless.
The feed I use now isn't perfect, there are mistakes of course, but I found less than the other options I had available, and in my personal use of it non of these data inaccuracies have been gamebreaking. But the proof is in the eating, some investors will probably think any mistakes makes the service not worth it, but hopefully others can live with the imperfections. There are some very expensive data feeds out there, but I never found one free of errors. This tool will be priced right at the low end but with data that I think rivals all the others, but users can judge that for themselves.
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I'm not a huge boxing fan but I've been waiting for this fight for about 5 years, just a shame they aren't both in their prime.
I'm rooting for Pacquiao
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how is this different than gurufocus?
The main difference is the underlying data, they use Morningstar however I use a different provider, which in my personal testing I judged to be slightly better.
Other than that I have 20 years of data, and there is no need to download and export/import data manually, it is all handled automatically and will update your models and personal analysis simply.
I will also be offering it substantially cheaper than Gurufocus, though they have other tools such as screeners. Some will probably prefer Gurufocus but I personally like the high degree of personalisation a spreadsheet offers over something totally browser based.
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Thanks Jurgis, I've sent you the details by PM. And many thanks to others that have responded, I have got much more interest than I first imagined and am still getting emails through so thanks.
It certainly covers a lot of OTC stocks, data on well over 7000 US stocks is available, but as part of the testing it would be great to know how useful it is for these smaller stocks. I've had a look myself and it seems good, but not that familiar with many of these tiny companies so input from others would be great.
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Hello all
For the last couple of years I have been trying to set up a new way for investors to quickly and easily analyze stocks. I know of a lot of online platforms that provide information like summary financial statements already, but none have the level of customization that I want personally, and a lot are prohibitively expensive. I wanted to set something up tailored for in depth analysis, not the flashy infographic, mobile friendly analysis that providers seem to be moving towards.
So I have set up a spreadsheet that automatically updates with data on any US stock, using a reliable professional data feed. The spreadsheet can be customised however the investor wishes and will still update automatically. My aim is to make this widely available, but before I do, I need some investors to test it out.
I don't require anything in particular, all I need is for someone to use it in their routine analysis of stocks and let me have any feedback on how it works, or any problems they encounter.
Testers will get free access, and if you're helpful I'll continue that free access long after I officially launch. You don't have to have any particular investing knowledge or experience, anyone is welcome.
Here is a preview of what the spreadsheet looks like.
If you are willing to help then either send me a PM or email me: mail@investingsidekick.com and I will send you the full working version along with a password. Or just leave a comment here and I'll PM you.
Edit: Thanks to all the testers, the beta is now finished and the spreadsheet is available to all on the website at https://investingsidekick.com/
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I can sum this book up in a few sentences. People have this visceral reaction when they look at and think about their own mistakes. The author argues that getting comfortable with this feeling is the key to learning and growing.
Thanks for saving us $9 :)
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I've never seen the appeal of this kind of investment. Firstly the business may operate from the RE so selling it off in the long term will just increase their costs.
Secondly even if the company wants to sell the RE and rent it back, this can take many years to actually complete so a discount to book value is warranted.
I think Sears is a good example of this, where I don't really see the appeal and it is taking a long time to realise all the RE value.
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I read Security Analysis and to be honest I would not recommend buying it. A lot of it is outdated and it isn't actually terribly useful for valuing businesses. I think there are better books, like Seth Klarmans Margin of Safety. If you've read that I dont think you'll get anything extra from SA.
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Interest rates have a lot to do with it. Mind that they've been saying the same about London since 2007 and prices have kept going north. Foreign buyers dont seem to be too price sensitive.
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I think I remember that Buffett uses a hurdle of 15%, but its pre-tax so about 10-12% after tax.
I personally use 10%, though if interest rates where to rise above 5% it would have to start going up.
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I was under the impression that the ECB couldn't do QE....so how exactly are they doing this today?
each country has to take 80% of their risks. So ECB isn't carrying the risk if bonds arent worth what they bought them for. So if for example greece fails, they will take 80% of the pain. And richer countries will take 20% of the pain.
I dont know how likely this is though, the general people of the EU are beginning to see the Euro and the EU for what it really is, a failed experiment that is enforcing hardship on millions of people to protect the wealthier countries in the Euro. Sooner or later than are going to give the EU the finger and go it alone, things cant get much worse for some.
Even in the UK, which has come out relatively unscathed considering, the general public despise the EU and everything it is doing - trying to enforce actions onto sovereign countries - it's completely undemocratic and we are seeing an uprising in extremely right wing parties coated in socialist rhetoric against draconian spending cuts forced on them by the EU. The whole thing is unfolding in a much too similar way to the rise of the Nazi party, people are worried.
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Too much top down thinking for my liking. Given most of my top down thoughts about how things would turn out in the 5 years after the crisis didn't materialise at all, I just focus on making sure I'm best prepared for any eventuality, rather than wasting time thinking which scenario is most likely.
I mean who considered $50 oil a few years ago? I know that while I thought about it as I'm always extremely conservative, I never actually thought it would happen and didn't make any investment decisions based on my personal thoughts on oil (thankfully)
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I own this, though I'm in the UK.
It's listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) of the London Stock Exchange, so although you shouldn't have a problem buying shares in theory, it isn't that easy to find a US broker that deals in AIM shares in general. Even a lot of UK brokers don't deal in them.
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I prefer to use importxml with Bloomberg. Yahoo and Google are a bit hit and miss I find.
I did a full blog post on it here https://investingsidekick.com/monitor-portfolio-google-docs/ but since then I've got into the Google Apps Script and have been doing some funky stuff with that. Hoping to release some pre-made spreadsheets at some point utilizing it all
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My biggest tip is never invest more than 5% in a company when you're starting out. You will be wrong at times and if its something like a 20% position then it really hurts. 5% though is manageable.
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For the best investments you don't to do a DCF to know they're cheaper than their discounted cash flows. Unfortunately they don't come along too often.
I've not been investing for 10 years so unfortunately can't say
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I'm not as pessimistic as GlennChan, I think it will rebound, there are always suckers around ready to stick money into false promises of riches :p
I've only ever bought one stock on it, and it was a winner. Maybe I got lucky, but there are probably some diamonds in there among the chaff.
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Honestly, yes. And it is not like the rules are well enforced anyway... They caught cohen practically redhanded and he still seems to get away with it. Just seems like a waste of energy and government money to chase after them.
You want to play the stock market game? That is part of it. Don't like it? Buy an index fund. Allthough they could make a rule where insiders would have to make their trades public within a day or so. That way they cannot dump large amounts to unsuspecting outsiders. I think it is better to have too little regulation then too much regulation.
You say that when we are still feeling the effects from financial under-regulation that almost brought down our entire financial system that would have thrown the civilized world back into the stone age?
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but it does not make sense to push out high cost producers, they are the ones that give you a high oil price. You want to push out some low cost capacity, so that there is more room for high cost capacity.
If all demand is filled by low cost capacity you have a much lower oil price and everyone makes less money. But if most of demand is filled by low cost and some of it by 80-100$ cost (like previously was the case) then you have 100$+ oil. And all the low cost providers make more money. That is what the saudi's want to achieve. But they don't want to be the only ones who constantly cut capacity. So that is why they flood the market every once in a while to show their muscle and force the other OPEC countries in line to also cut capacity. See this quote:
In order to combat falling revenues, Saudi Arabia pushed for production quotas to limit production and boost prices. When other OPEC nations failed to comply, Saudi Arabia slashed production from 10 million barrels daily in 1980 to just one-quarter of that level in 1985. When this proved ineffective, Saudi Arabia reversed course and flooded the market with cheap oil, causing prices to fall to under ten dollars a barrel. The result was that high price production zones in areas such as the North Sea became too expensive. Countries in OPEC that had previously failed to comply to quotas began to limit production in order to shore up prices.
Interesting quote, so are you betting on some of the NA oil producers or waiting?
I've been looking through some of them, but not found it easy to find a strong one at very depressed levels. My only exposure to oil at the moment is AWDR
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I've got respect for Ackman, I'd never bet against him, but he is way too competitive for my liking. Competitiveness is not a bad thing, but his drives him to do irrational things, and pushes him from investing to gambling.
I think the anecdote about him and Loeb cycling sums him up pretty well. And also this one.
In 1984, when he was a junior at Horace Greeley High School, in affluent Chappaqua, New York, he wagered his father $2,000 that he would score a perfect 800 on the verbal section of the S.A.T. The gamble was everything Ackman had saved up from his Bar Mitzvah gift money and his allowance for doing household chores. “I was a little bit of a cocky kid,” he admits, with uncharacteristic understatement.Tall, athletic, handsome with cerulean eyes, he was the kind of hyper-ambitious kid other kids loved to hate and just the type to make a big wager with no margin for error. But on the night before the S.A.T., his father took pity on him and canceled the bet. “I would’ve lost it,” Ackman concedes. He got a 780 on the verbal and a 750 on the math. “One wrong on the verbal, three wrong on the math,” he muses. “I’m still convinced some of the questions were wrong.”
http://www.vanityfair.com/online/daily/2013/02/bill-ackman-daniel-loeb-bike-ride
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According to Reuters the Saudi's want cheap oil for the next few years to force North American producers out of business. But I have read other reports that say the Saudis can't afford sub $80 brent crude.
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I wrote a whole article about designing a stock screen to find these kind of companies while not letting good candidates fall through the cracks.
Typical ratios like ROE and ROIC can appear temporarily bad because of one bad year with writeoffs, so important to try and catch them in a screen to, and I do that by using gross profit where i can and adjusting the cut off appropriately
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Speaking personally, I want bandwidth that allows me to download film/tv in less than 10 minutes. Streaming is good, but there are some things I prefer to download and save.
At the moment there is a lot of lossy compression that goes into films, even HD, in order to get them small enough for download and storage. When I rip a Bluray it can be well over 25Gb, storing my large collection electronically isn't possible without compressing them and losing quality. I would ideally have my whole collection electronic and do away with discs altogether, I hate having 'things' cluttering the house.
On processors, I was shocked recently when my office upgraded our computers to ones with Intel Core i5. I bought a laptop with that processor myself over 5 years ago, and after searching realised that the Intel Core iX range are still being sold as standard.
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I find most big news websites full of meaningless stuff tbh, quite easy to waste a lot of your time on them without learning anything of value.
I am increasingly using sites like Seeking Alpha and twitter to get news that I know will be of some interest, along with a couple of Yahoo pages
how many people here have cut the cable cord?
in General Discussion
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You are all showing your age now, Netflix?? Who watches Netflix!? Its all about Youtube and watching PewDiePie now among the youth :)
But in all seriousness, Youtube is huge and for a lot of young people has completely replaced TV. There are a lot of Youtubers that provide regular 'series' and make a whole lot of money from the ad revenue. I even watch some myself. The biggest that come to mind are Yogscast, PewDiePie, Skydoesminecraft, but there are hundreds.