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I don't think many would argue that Giuliani did some fine things as mayor. But that doesn't mean you can't also judge his actions over the last ten years in a negative way. People change. Rudy has not aged well.

I see what you mean but you also have to treat politicians in the same way as the rest of the population. If it was "allowed", and they acted in a responsible way (masks etc), there are better targets for criticism in my view.

But they were following the rules at the time weren't they?

Do you know why killing someone who is attacking you is more justified than killing an innocent person? Do you know why its more dangerous to drive over the speed limit without wearing a seatbelt than with one? I do, but I dont see the ties any of that has to the logical inconsistency in the above mentioned behaviors. For instance just yesterday, Chuck Schumer was partying in the streets maskless. And it was celebrated by everyone and the part where he was massless largely ignored... People have just kind of lost it with this and the media is a big part of the problem. Even the other day, my wife says to me, "did you notice the kids had runny noses all week?" and I was like yea. And she says "now my nose is runny, do you think we should be concerned?", I said, well how do you feel? To which she replies "fine". And I explain to her politely but in my head am thinking...."WTF. Every year maybe 2-3 times a fall/winter(at least since having kids) stuff like this goes around. Seasonal allergies/common cold/flu, etc....normal part of life. Now, the exact same things happen and we're all ridden with paranoia. On top of this, if these are your symptoms, and it turns out to be covid...who cares? You feel fine or at least consistent with how you normally do during this stretch of the seasons, you might have minor discomfort....otherwise, WTF is the point of all this negative energy, restriction, and paranoia....and if anything more serious comes about, well you deal with it accordingly. But the degree to which people are mentally impairing themselves over this is downright insane. Errrr.... remind me who it is that's mentally impairing themself?

Thanks but shouldn't churn be calculated on the previous year's sales not the 1st year's sales?

Annually

I don't really know what you mean. Is that not a derivative of the churn (17%)?

Sure. I'm actually looking at Naked Wines: ARPA: 197 Gross Margin: 27% Discount Rate: 8% Churn: 17%

Hey - I am trying to find a good lifetime value calculator - the attached is what I am after, but the output doesn't look 'right" For example, ARPA 500, Gross Margin 20%, Discount Rate 0, Churn 100% spits out a discounted residual value of 2680! How is that possible when customer churn is at 100%? https://tactyc.io/published/1729/ltv-calculation Assuming I am correct in saying this must be wrong, does anyone know where I can find a good one.

I am not based in Poland but my wife is Polish so I have an interest. Indeed I am planning on living there in future. How well do you know Poland? Maybe I can help.

I think we are starting to see why Buffett is cautious ... ?

Unfortunately he had a zero on Flybe, and also owned TRIP

I had been under the impression that he has generated sizeable alpha for his clients over many years. I also like what he says when he's on TV, makes a lot of sense to me. I don't know anything about the "Fairfax affair"

I think you missed the worst bit, which is: to even get on the plane for an international flight, you will have to get a medical certificate; get temperature checked at the airport, and queue for security in a socially distanced way. People are talking about a 3-4 hour process at the airport. This is the year for a staycation in your own country (at an extortionate price)! people talked about 4 hours at the airport after 9 11 as well. Not sure why it would take 4 hours this time. The certificate you get a couple days before. If everyone is wearing a mask, why would there be a need to have meters of distance in the queue? makes no sense. temperature checks take a second, and more likely, they will be done by flir cameras so you won't notice it until someone taps you on the shoulder for being too hot. Fair enough. Might just be then. I find airports to be places of misery at the best of times. With this extra stuff in place, I think I won't bother (and I think there'll be others like me)

I think you missed the worst bit, which is: to even get on the plane for an international flight, you will have to get a medical certificate; get temperature checked at the airport, and queue for security in a socially distanced way. People are talking about a 3-4 hour process at the airport. This is the year for a staycation in your own country (at an extortionate price)!

Trump says stuff that, in my view, is incredibly dumb every day. Some of it is genuinely dumb and some of it he says for his audience. But what is equally dumb is people continuing to be shocked and outraged by it every day and talking about it. Trump is Trump. Nothing will change people's mind one way or another.

Agreed. You are all value investors aren't you? What's the downside in wearing a mask if you are not depriving medical personnel. Even wearing some non medical thing like a bandana helps to change attitudes and get people into the mindset that wearing a mask is normal.

To further summarise some ideas I've seen: Thanks for starting the thread. I’ve been watching a few other similar conversations so the below is a bit of a compilation. I do think that those who predict long term changes in human behaviours or society are probably wrong. In five years, I think our economies and societies will look similar to today, although there will some changes at the margin. Lots of them are accelerations of long term trends. - The shift to digital continues with more of a tailwind as sections of the population that never shopped online were forced to and realised it was …. Ok. - Employers realise that working from home can work at scale and will find it harder to justify expensive office rents - The combination of the above and the recession leads to more “we work” type facilities (although not necessarily WeWork) - Some employees will realise they got a whole load happier without the daily commute and demand to their employers they do it more, and will also look to shift away from “traditional” office based careers. - Lots of companies realise they need a more prudent capital structure and raise capital. There is a general deleveraging. - Individuals remember that having cash savings, even in a non yielding world, is vital as a buffer against lifes emergences. Savings rates go up. - Governments are forced to finance their emergency spending with more debt issuance and higher taxes. This leads to increasing societal disharmony between old and young and higher vs lower paid. - Those high quality businesses that were well insulated from the crisis become even more highly valued by investors in a zero interest rate world, and are rated even more higher by the stock market, leading to even more bifurcation between “high quality stocks” and the rest. - As hospitals are built in ten days, drugs are approved in weeks, and businesses survive with whole departments working online, a lot of bureaucracy is revealed and for what it is and there is a bonfire of red tape and employment. - China gets a “blamed” for the virus and the trend to move supply chains and against liberalisation of trade continues. - Certain western governments are shown to be relatively incompetent and liberal democracy continues to be questioned. At the same time certain populists are thrown out of power.

So when Tepper does an interview and talks about being "balls to the walls", or "Druck" talks about what he's buying or about going short, or Buffett writes an op-ed about buying stocks or Malone talks about "how good a business X or Y is", is that manipulation trickery mode? Ackman just did what every guest on these shows do. His interview happened to be particularly dramatic because it was a particularly dramatic time, right as a pandemic is exploding but right before it seemed most governments were really taking it seriously and shutting things down. If I had been given a microphone at that time, I'd probably have said pretty similar things, to be honest. That's what the data was showing, and I was worried about my parents and in laws and uncles and aunts and friends with health troubles and friends working in healthcare... I know there's strong social conventions about never going out on a limb and never appearing to overreact and all that, but those conventions hinder good decision-making in times like these, because we're all looking around and waiting for others to tell us it's time to do something, instead of thinking for ourselves, and lose precious time, so voices that actually tell you how bad it is and how bad it'll be if we don't act are very valuable. Uh, no the comparison to Buffett telling people "buy equities" in the fall of 2008 is not equivalent to this guy. Comparing a guy who has a long track record of shorting a business and then going onto a network to talk about how the business is a scam/fraud and he is doing it to "protect people" (reminds me of TSLAQ folks). And investing in a "sewer" (Munger's words) like VRX tells you even more. The problem with the "if I had a microphone in my face" is that some people willingly go out of their way to seek out that microphone at opportune times. I guess it's great marketing for Pershing when it comes to raising capital. I have not seen Buffett/Munger engage in the same kind of tactics. I'd bet a lot of money that a lot of people have tried to "put a microphone" in front of Buffett/Munger's faces during this crisis, but what you are not seeing is that they are declining to be interviewed. They are old & vulnerable and I am sure they are sitting on losses in airlines, but they see no need to go out and stir panic and cry on TV. Everything he said needed to be said. I agreed with it all. And he has some credibility here, given he saw the effect before everyone else and positioned his portfolio accordingly - and was pretty transparent about it. If Buffett did all that, we’d be praising his genius and societal contribution. Ps ackman has done some scummy stuff in the past

So...it looks like this guy held CDS and went on CNBC last week and had a meltdown about the crisis. Then unloaded the CDS Monday and went long stocks and back on CNBC (edit: Bloomberg on Tuesday) touting that everything is going to be ok. How is this remotely allowed/ethical? He brought talking his book to a new level. Lol...makes you respect people like WEB and Munger that much more because they don't engage in such despicable antics and still outperform these scumbags. He was totally transparent about his position at all times. You are allowed to have an opinion - and I have agreed with his opinion all along.

Put another way - it's not terrifying if it's dealt with in the right way and maybe get some luck as well. It is terrifying (for the health service and old people) if that's not the case. I live in the UK and am terrified. If I lived in the US I would be terrified, given the shambolic response, and the fact that politicians are talking about re opening things before the pain has really even hit.

While I hate Donald Trump with all my heart and want nothing else than for him to be destitute, is this fair? Surely Trump should be treated the same way as any other hotel owner. I know that he and his dishonest family would have found a way to game the bail out to their advantage so maybe this is the only way?

Same in London. Lots of people (my friends, intelligent) are posting pictures of them cycling in groups, jokingly saying "at a safe distance" when - quite clearly - they are not. Western world deaths and disruption will be much higher than Asia because people find it much harder to get their heads around acting for the common good and STAYING AT HOME

Agreed you will make money. But I want to make SERIOUS money. Assuming this thing ends this year, I want a *3 or 4 over the next three years.