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EliG

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    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    OK..I will answer the question myself.  Here is the transcript. Bleach/disinfectant from President came up twice

     

    President:

    I see disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute, one minute, and is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside, or almost a cleaning.

     

    Funny how you failed to bold by injection inside.

     

     

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    a good reason for many asian countries doing well could

    be their BCG immunization

     

    if you look at the world - this virus hit particularly hard if rich western countries that have abandoned BCG vaccine. 

     

    China is an outlier - maybe they were getting fake vaccines...

     

    Have you looked at the evidence?

     

    BCG vaccine was mandatory in the UK from 1953 to 2005. Mandatory in France from 1950 to 2007. Both countries are not doing well.

     

    Germany stopped BCG vaccination in 1998. It's doing better than most.

     

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BCG_vaccine#Europe

     

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    -Follow-up to StubbleJumper and orthopa about expectations in Ontario (largest province in Canada) and potential implications.

    They have just released data, 'projections' and rationale for policy making (see slides):

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-projections-1.5519575

     

    Projected 3,000 to 15,000 deaths in Ontario.. More than Hubei province in China, up to 5x more. How is Trudeau/Ford govt managing this well?

     

    3,000 to 15,000 deaths is an estimate over the course of the entire pandemic. Ontario model estimates that it may last up to 2 years (multiple waves).

     

    Do you have Hubei estimate for the entire pandemic? What is their estimate for the pandemic duration?

     

    I agree with you that Ontario is not managing all that well. However, you don't need to spin the numbers to make your case.

     

    Sorry, not trying to spin #s. I was just looking at slide 13 and it says over course of pandemic, doesn't list any assumptions. No idea about Hubei #s. Officially ~3000 deaths and pandemic basically over. Estimates over 10x those #s, who knows. Keep in mind there's 4x the population of Ontario and higher density.

     

    Also, Ontario currently has more deaths than Quebec but only half the # of cases?

     

    1. Yeah, the slides don't show the expected duration. They discussed it in today's briefing. They expect 18-24 months for the full pandemic.

     

    2. No one believes Chinese stats. You can easily make a case that Ontario is not doing well without invoking bogus Chinese numbers.

     

    3. There is no way that Hubei pandemic is over. They will have multiple waves just like everyone else.

     

    4. Ontario is under-testing compared to Quebec by a factor of ~3x. See this:

     

     

    He is professor of epidemiology at UofT.

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    -Follow-up to StubbleJumper and orthopa about expectations in Ontario (largest province in Canada) and potential implications.

    They have just released data, 'projections' and rationale for policy making (see slides):

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-projections-1.5519575

     

    Projected 3,000 to 15,000 deaths in Ontario.. More than Hubei province in China, up to 5x more. How is Trudeau/Ford govt managing this well?

     

    3,000 to 15,000 deaths is an estimate over the course of the entire pandemic. Ontario model estimates that it may last up to 2 years (multiple waves).

     

    Do you have Hubei estimate for the entire pandemic? What is their estimate for the pandemic duration?

     

    I agree with you that Ontario is not managing all that well. However, you don't need to spin the numbers to make your case.

     

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I wore a basic surgical mask on my last trip to Costco. My first time ever... I'm a white guy.

     

    My initial impression: the mask makes it more likely that I may end up touching my face.

     

    Human beings exhale humid air. Without a mask, humid air moves away from your face. With the mask on, humid air moves up and down the face through the openings around the mask. By the time I was done shopping, my brows and chin were wet and itchy. The natural urge is to wipe away the moisture with your bare hands. That's the wrongest thing you can possibly do right now.

     

    Glasses is another hassle. Mine were constantly fogging up. I had to take them off, wipe them down, and put them back on multiple times. That surely adds to the risk of the virus transfer.

     

    I have no idea how Asian people do it. Is there a secret technique I'm not aware of?

     

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Scott Grannis is not a MAGA-head but he is a well-known Trump supporter. How do his political views shape his analysis? Here's a clue...

     

    What is beginning to make a real difference is the growing realization that the covid-19 virus is not nearly as deadly as the early projections suggested. That, and the rapidly growing list of therapeutics — led by chloroquine — and the accelerated development of vaccines and the fact that covid-19 test kits are on the verge of being distributed by the millions.

     

    1. "The rapidly growing list of therapeutics" is a fantasy. A number of drugs have entered randomized control trials. The trials are ongoing. At the moment, we don't know if any of these drugs are effective.

     

    2. Like Trump, Grannis is touting chloroquine despite scant evidence of its effectiveness.

     

     

    Compare his take to what Surgeon-In-Chief at Columbia University wrote about chloroquine:

     

    "The hysteria surrounding HC&A is almost entirely anecdotal, propped up by a handful of tiny, unconvincing trials."

     

    See the last paragraph here

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUDxgClWAAAx06x?format=jpg&name=large

     

     

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    38yo healthy guy details his experience with Covid-19. He didn't get hospitalized. It probably means that his case counts as mild. For a "mild" case, it sounds downright scary.

     

     

    Share with friends & family who still think "it's just like a flu".

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    If you get coronavirus but have recovered. Would you show positive or negative on these tests? Also, would you be immune to the virus?

     

    You would show negative on the existing RT-PCR test.

     

    A serological test for COVID-19 antibodies can detect past disease. The tests have been created but they are not available commercially just yet.

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Canada is talking about a gradual lift of the quarantine. Same thing as trump is saying but we will be more cautious about it. I am assuming that the US will do a gradual return to work, at a state level.  If so, it won't be the economic catastrophe people want to believe.  So the US goes from $20T debt to say $23T as a result of covid stimulus. Not sustainable long term but not the apocalypse tomorrow either.

     

    "The hope is that we can slowly lift these measures, rather than have them completely lifted, and we can control the rebound of the virus such that it does not cause a situation where we overwhelm our health-care system and negate everything that we've done for the past few months."

     

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/canada-covid-19-second-wave-1.5507522

     

    The bolded part is political spin. You misrepresented Canadian policies to defend Trump.

     

    The article you linked is one CBC reporter talking to a couple of experts. They discussed -- hypothetically -- what may happen way down the line. These experts are not talking in any official capacity. They don't represent Canada. They are not in charge of anything.

     

    If you listen to our politicians who are actually in charge, the message is very different from what Trump is saying. Federal health minister has recently threatened to tighten the screws (because many Canadians are not complying with what's been asked). Provinces are imposing more restrictions, e.g. Ontario and Quebec closed all non-essential businesses just this week. There is zero happy talk about being back in business by Easter.

     

     

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    The real issue isn't the bats themselves, or even humans eating them per se, it's keeping bats and a host of other animals like civets, raccoon dogs, pangolins, etc. in so called wet markets where viruses endemic to bats have a chance to jump species and eventually make the jump to humans. Most of these viruses would never be a threat to humans if they weren't placed in crowded conditions with a number of species where they can rapidly mutate and become infectious to multiple species.

     

    SARS was a warning we never took seriously. Hopefully post-Covid19 we'll see these type of markets have much stricter requirements when it comes to separating different types of animals, if not shut down entirely.

     

    SARS was a warning that Chinese Communist Party never took seriously.

     

    I know you mean "we" as a humankind, but that absolves CCP of any responsibility. No one else was in position to shut down these wet markets.

     

    Once this ordeal is over, the world should unite and hold CCP accountable.

     

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    https://www.en24.news/a/2020/03/hydroxychloroquine-would-be-effective-according-to-professor-raoult-of-the-ihu-in-marseille-after-a-first-limited-test.html

     

    Bayer and Sanofi seem to have huge supplies of this stuff and seem to have offered donations to whatever country wants it.

     

    Too early to tell obviously, but if approved, existing and widely available (combo of) medicines turn out to decrease the severity of the virus (at least for a large number of patients) obviously that would be a quick and complete game-changer.

     

    some random dude on twitter wrote some interesting (and very bullish) comments on the French study I linked here yesterday: https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1240630279301033986 and posts below that. It's just one person's thoughts so who cares, but I found them interesting, and I'd like to be an optimist these days and tweets like these help.

     

    what I and others had missed yesterday in this study was that it might have been remarkably succesful because of the combo of two seperate drugs working together, not just the hydroxychlorquine.

     

    SMH at people who think azithromycin, an antibiotic that works against bacteria and hydroxychlorquine, an agent that works against a parasite, is likely to fight a virus. Same as anti-HIV drugs for this which are anti-retrovirals (hint: COVID-19 is not a retrovirus).

     

    Hydroxychloroquine also fights lupus and rheumatoid arthritis.

     

    Are you saying lupus and rheumatoid arthritis are caused by viruses? Because if you're not, than the comment you made is stupid.

     

    actually there is a theory that RA is "triggered" by an infection in people who are susceptible genetically.  so yes.

     

    and of course lyme's is caused by a bacteria, with attendant inflammation results.  while most of research money goes to cancer research, given that so many important diseases are inflammation based (arteriosclerosis, arthritis etc), one might hope that covid19 (causing pneumonia, inflammation of lungs) might have a salutary effect to focus more attention on inflammation

     

    My mom was on Plaquenil (Hydroxychloroquine) for 25 years to keep her lupus in check. Lupus is an autoimmune disease. Hydroxychloroquine helps to control lupus symptoms by modulating the immune system.

     

    If hydroxychloroquine works agains covid-19 (a big if at this point) -- it will like be via immune system modulation, rather than a direct action against the virus.

     

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    People in NYC are still walking around without mask

    A lot of People in grocery stores, none had mask and only some wear gloves.

    Home Depot is packed with people.

     

    Do standard (non-N95) masks aid healthy people avoid infection, prevent sick people from spreading, or both?

     

    Standard masks catch coughs and sneezes. They prevent sick people from spreading. They do not protect healthy people from the virus aerosols in the air. The mask fit is not tight enough and the pores are too big.

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Leadership capable of more nuanced tactics and precautionary thinking would be great, but whether the average voter understands the benefit of that remains to be seen in November.

     

    I am sorry to disappoint you...

     

     

    ABC/Ipsos: "In the new poll, 55% of Americans approve of the president's management of the crisis, compared to 43% who disapprove."

     

     

     

     

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