hillfronter83
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Posts posted by hillfronter83
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31 minutes ago, LearningMachine said:
Hey, I'm curious how are you calculating 2021 operating income? Last 9 months of 2021 Non-IFRS Net Profit for 9 months of 2021 was $537M USD. See slide 26 at https://ir.tencentmusic.com/download/3Q21+TME+Investor+Presentation.pdf .
Their current market cap is $5.56B USD.
I'm using the same numbers. My calculation shows they have investments (SPOT, UMG, WMG) and cash worth about $2.96/share. So it's almost a net net stock for the biggest online music platform in China (>50% market share). But obviously there are macro risks I don't know how to value hence only a lottery ticket position for now.
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I can't help buying some TME LEAPS. At current price, it's priced at half of its 2021 operating income excluding investments/cash. They spent $643m in stock repurchase in the first 3 quarters in 2021. In theory, they can buyback all floating shares with cash on balance sheet.
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21 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:
Bought some KWEB calls. Seems like everyone is taking a beating on all things China so I may as well join the club.
Chinese stonks are new Russia stocks.
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16 hours ago, mcliu said:
In the short-term it is hard to say, but in the long-term it's almost inevitable China will unify Taiwan either through force or diplomacy.
The little chance of diplomacy reunification is gone now after what happened in Hong Kong.
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Now do IB when they restrict your trading when they think you are "affiliated" with the issuer.
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Did about 18% in 2021. Wasn't great compare to the overall market, but pretty happy about the result. Thanks to all the people posted ideas and analysis, leaned a ton from this board. Wish everyone much success in 2022!
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11 hours ago, Simba said:
I have some bond investment allocation, but not sure how to properly invest this amount.
I can put this amount in a corporate bond fund, but it does not earn much yield. I can put this amount in a savings account, but now it's even worse.
I can allocate this to equities, but then this defeats the purpose.
Thus far, I've allocated a bit to high yield bonds, but obviously this is like 10% of my bond allocation as it has equity like volatility in a downturn (otherwise would put more).
Thoughts?
If it's your 401K account, looking for Stable Value fund
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6 minutes ago, longlake95 said:
unfair. your judging with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. Buffett didn't know/couldn't control Sokol buying Lubrizol stock then walking into his office to say BRK should buy Lubz...
as for Gates, I would like to reserve judgment until we have some facts from reputable sources...that being said, again, I doubt WEB and Gates were sitting on the back deck discussing anyone's extra-curricular activities. I do really think Buffett has proved time and time again that he really operates above the crowd when it comes to authenticity and conduct.
WEB literally had two wives at the same time:)
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IBKR is very bad for service. Often their staff won't even respond or are just incompetent. If you look at reviews , they tend to get under 3 stars. Clients aren't very happy. Sure costs are cheap, but it takes a certain type of person to be bought off with money at the expense of other important considerations in life.
IBKR's service is getting worse over the years. The trading restriction for OTC stocks because they think you are an affiliated shareholder is getting ridiculous: first they flag you as an affiliated and restricted the trading; then only the compliance personnel can remove the restriction (not the service guy you get on the phone); and when you submit a ticket you are ignored; at last when the restriction is removed, it's only for two weeks and you need to repeat the steps again!
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About 16%.
Most of my winners are special events and deep value such as FENG.
I'm very happy with the return especially considering how 2020 unfolded for many people around the world.
John, Really sorry for your loss!
Lastly wish everyone on this board a healthy and happy 2021!
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Why do people think that public skools students are more heterogenous and represent "real" world? At least where I live (suburban New York area), all good school districts have mostly high income families. At least their attitudes toward education are pretty similar.
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I like chance for Meituan (3690.HK). Already over $200b market cap, the third biggest technology company behind BABA and Tecent. Also Tecent owns 20% of it.
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Good luck! Really enjoyed your contribution!
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Job title/description: Product/Risk Manager
Industry you work in: Insurance
City and Country: NJ
I worked from home from time to time before. Prior to COVID, my group were already moving to partial WFH arrangements with free addressing workstations in office. Most of my colleagues will WFH 3 days a week. My company invested heavily in technology, such as virtual desktop, easy plugin docking stations, double monitors at home, etc. The experiences have been seamless and the only difference is I plug in my laptop downstairs at home rather than going to a cubicle in office.
So far, I haven't noticed any productivity differences when all my colleagues are working from home. That said, I'm not looking to climb corporate ladder so not seeing people is not an issue. I can see why someone wanting to advance career would want to spend more time in office.
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This clearly shows virus was not wide spread in US in Jan 2020:
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What happened to this? Opened at $4.99 then traded as high as $134/share! Short squeeze?
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China says no new cases today. Is this true? They recently expelled US journalists. Faced with 40% plunge in GDP, are they telling the truth or are they trying to calm the US down?
muscle, any insight on this?
From what I heard from my friend this morning, China seems to have things under control. They are still tracking everybody's movement and require people to wear face masks in public. But governments clearly think the worst may be behind and are now encouraging people to get back to normal life, such as going to restaurants, opening school etc. This is a small city in Jiangsu.
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so during the weekend, I looked at some of historical flu pandemics, especially the ones from 1957-58 and 1968-69. Both infected between 0.25 to 1 billion people and caused millions of death. Then I went back and checked Buffett's partnership letters and found exact 0 mentioning of those events. I guess this time is different. Crazy time.
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Not to mention a vaccine would only be what 50% effective for HEALTHY individuals. People don't get it as I said earlier. Rapid compounding spread is inevitable.
This is what seems to be happening. There isn't much people can do unless you are like Chinese government that can order people to sit on their asses for two months at home. Maybe cancelling some meetings, events, etc which will have a short term negative impact on economy. But to put number of deaths so far in perspective, outside of China, about 200 people died. Even if there are cover ups and let's say the number is 10 times bigger. But this is still less than number of people dies from traffic accident A DAY! It's the panic that causes more problem, such as this:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-01/chinese-man-sentenced-to-die-for-murders-at-virus-roadblock
This the effect of social media age: people are glued to their device and are getting news 24/7. We just can't help ourselves. A few weeks ago, it was climate change gal, then it's killing of Iranian general...
In a month or so, people will eventually get bored and get on with their life...
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Bridgewater Dalio's comments:
This is the first big outbreak in social media era. The (mis)information on twitter is mind boggling. I saw many non medical experts (maybe with some agenda) try to stir panic in market.
The economic impact can be bigger than SARS, which lasted over a year, with many Chinese staying home, companies taking longer holidays, and travel bans. And China is a much bigger part of world economy compare to 17 years ago.
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please provide facts, not speculation and fear mongering. If there are 1 million infections (hypothetical to illustrate a point) without additional deaths that is actually a good thing, that means this virus is not as deadly as we thought it could be
Hyten,
I think you are thinking about this matter a little bit too much in the ways like a value investors who invested with Chinese RTOs in the 2011 to 2012. I have been following Chinese WeChat and talking to people on the ground. Shanghai is a pretty much a ghost town now. No one goes downstairs from their apartment. You can call that heresay. But I tend to trust my wife's friend who works for a biotech company in the US who has a PhD that it is a ghost town. The facts are that they quarantine an area that has the population of New YOrk City, LA, and Chicago and still has 10mm pop left. That's a fact. I am not surprised at all if there were 100k infected in WuHan. It's $10k RMB to stay at an ICU in China. So $1.6k USD. Most of the population can't afford that. There are definitely a lot more infection and death than the numbers that are official.
Talk to a value investor in the western world, they pound the table and say "Don't fear monger, give me the facts."
Talk to any Chinese person (wife and I are both Chinese) and we just know that the numbers are way more serious than the official stats. People have mentioned that the cause of death on certificates are often Pneumonia not Corona Virus despite the doctors telling family that it was definitely Corona virus.
Why do you think the Chinese government is willing to shut down such large portion of its GDP?
Don't be so dogmatic with the numbers and FACTs. Learn to be a bit flexible with it and bake in a large range of potential figures. Both the death rate and the infection rates are likely much larger.
Invert the think, if the infectiousness isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to quarantine? If the death rate isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to attack this? To a certain extent, the reactions are likely over blown at this point, discount the seriousness by 50% and it is stil pretty bad.
Yes, the death figure lags by quite a bit.
I don't disagree that both patient and death numbers are probably much higher in Wuhan/Hubei area. China has under invested in healthcare infrastructure over the years. So resources are already stretched under normal condition. Now imagine there are suddenly 10 times more patients waiting in line to be checked out. That said, there is no incentive for areas outside Wuhan/Hubei to under report numbers.
Yes, people all over China are staying at home and not going to public space. And local governments everywhere are announcing extreme measures, such as mandatory face mask wearing in public places and canceling events, to counter the outbreak. But outside Wuhan/Hubei, I haven't seen concrete evidences contradicting opinions of medical experts in the west that the virus break is similar to flu in terms of contagiousness and death threat.
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there are at least 100k infections in my hometown Wuhan alone. The government doesn’t want to admit it because it promised to treat all infected patients for free. (No different from Bernie Sanders free shit)
If what you said is true, that makes this virus far less deadly than we think today?
On the investment side, these type of event usually marks the end of a long bear market. Just think about how the end of SARS marked the end of a long bear market in Asia.
Is it possible they're hiding deaths as well as infections?
If you look at numbers out of Wuhan and abroad, the death rate is indeed not that high. Similar to normal flu.
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Isn't this pretty much the same problem that people have had for decades with ethnic cooking? If you have a multicultural city, you'll have a little bit of everything in your building and every day you will smell different cooking than what you eat. There's never been much you can do about it, right?
Probably a little different in that weed has a bit more chemicals in it which is why people smoke it in the first place
Start cook spicy Chongqing hotpot for dinner everyday. Maybe your neighbor will be the one complaining :)
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Big congrats on very solid results, especially on the following :):
Finally, by far the most enjoyable special situation of 2019 was becoming a father.
BMY management came out today saying there is very good chance CVR will pay out. The price is approaching "fair value" (75% chance for each drug to get approved, I trimmed some.
Cancelled trade by stock exchange (busted trade)
in General Discussion
Posted
I got a few of my trades cancelled by the Frankfurt Stock Exchange due to "erroneous price".
The other party clearly wasn't paying attention to the company announcement. I guess that they found out afterward and contacted the exchange. The exchange ruled that the execution price was "erroneous" and had my broker cancel the trades without consulting me. Now IB is telling me there is nothing they can do. I guess under certain circumstances, a trade can be cancelled such as exchange system malfunction, etc. And I have been in the losing end of many trades when I make mistake: entering wrong price, forgetting to cancel a GTC order, especially with those illiquid penny stocks. So to me a mere mistake is not an excuse to cancel a legitimate executed trade.
Did anyone here have similar experiences?