hillfronter83
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Posts posted by hillfronter83
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a pretty balanced view (IMO) from an expat:
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1 hour ago, Luca said:
An investment in China is an investment alongside the people of China and their Government.
An investment in the US is an investment alongside the people of the US and their Government.
Both are the same thing so whats important is to understand how do the people and the government see your business?
If you study CCP releases, Xis speeches, what public officials say, all lights are on green. Nobody wants to take your business away, nobody wants communism and a Stalinist economy, China will remain a partly private partly public economy just like other economies in the west.
What is different is that china can regulate the bad parts in their markets and will do so, same should be true for the US but I don't know whats going on inside congress and their plans against mag 7.
Alibaba will remain a private business for the coming decades and nothing will change in that regard with a 98% probability.
30% of the worlds manufacturing and industry is in China, ALL incentives are there to cooperate with China and not increase confrontations. If there is war, its over and I will probably be sent to fight in WW3 too so my portfolio will become irrelevant. If you think its thinkable that the same happens with China what happened with Russia then you are wrong, those are two completely different economies, the effect of China cut off would be 20x worse and lead to a hard depression for 5-10 years and global growth will probably stagnate for way way longer, I can afford to lose 25% of my PF in that case.
Innovation in China is not to be underestimated, we already see how far they are and Tencent/Alibaba can easily compete with US tech.
The big difference is that the interests of Chinese government and its people are not aligned. Chinese people (shareholders) get a much smaller piece of its GDP.
Here is a good thread for understanding the fundamental issue with Chinese economy. And here is the link to the original article in Chinese.
http://m.xugaoecon.net/nd.jsp?id=16
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19 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:
What happened?
No idea. Can't find any news or disclosure. Someone dumped 280m shares (about 1000 times average daily volume or 10% of shares outstanding) in about 10 minutes yesterday before closing bell.
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how often do we see billion$ market cap wiped out in 10 minutes?
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Just came back from my two-week trip to China. It's the first time seeing my family and friends in more than four years. Stayed in a small city near Shanghai and travel around in the region. Here are some observations:
- Overall economy is very challenging, although some high end restaurants seem to be doing fine.
- real estate will be doomed for years to come according to a real estate company executive friend. Even rural areas have a lot of high rise apartments (around 30 stories). I suspect these will be very costly to maintain and most Chinese are known for their frugalness. Don't feel good about the value of these building in 20 years. and most people i know already have multiple apartments.
- world class infrastructure everywhere, ie high speed rail, subway, etc. some of those projects were built to increase land value. While they look great, I'm not sure about the economic soundness. They are also very costly to maintain.
- e-commerce is very active, many people do grocery online nowadays.
- It's hard to increase consumption. most wealth is concentrated in people born in 60s, 70s. They grew up frugal and most people don't feel the desire to consume. The biggest spending is on food, but you can only eat 3 meals a day. secondly, the income decease is very real. a few years ago, local government employees were making over RMB300k, now it's about half, sometime lower.
- most people are stressed except the retirees. rich people (some centimillionaires) are worried about their shrinking net worth. and poor people are working 10-hour days to make their mortgage payment.
- although national birth rate are low. people i know are still having kids. but it could be they are local in a small city that is more affordable.
- most of the wealthy people's kids are living/studying in US or Europe.
- some of my friends, who used to drive BMW, Audi, are now driving Chinese made EVs.
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about 37% across several accounts.
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3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
I guess the "stolen wallets" don't just apply to the small fries, this also scales. In my opinion PDD is most likely to be fraudulent of the big tech co's in China with no CFO and an obvious '"fall guy" signing up the financials, as well as other red flags.
Certainly not a small fry. This is the founder of QIHU, which he took private from US exchange for $9 billion in 2016 and relisted in China for about 300 billion RMB, which is worth about 70 billion RMB.
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Ludashi is a Chinese software company trading in Hong Kong (ticker 3601). It's a net net with about 300 million RMB market cap and over 500 million cash and no debt on its BS. On 9/11/2023, it announced a board meeting and a special dividend. In the following week, Stock surged >70% from HKD1.1/share to HKD1.9/share. On 9/20/2023, stock price suddenly plunged more than 40% to HKD1.2/share with heavy volume. On 9/21/2023, the company announced that its major shareholder with over 30% shares had just dumped 12.77% of shares to the market. And then on 9/22/2023, the company announced that the board meeting is canceled and there will be no special dividend due to "unusual fluctuation in the price and trading volume of the shares of the Company".
Well played, insider!
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3 hours ago, sleepydragon said:
Japanese news usually have pretty read on Chinese affairs. Look at the recent “spy” arrests by China, they are Japanese..Anyway, at least the video of Li Keqiang still touring around, smiling andaccepting people’ applauding , that’s pretty unusual..in china
Did people forget Hu Jingtao got hauled away in front of the whole world not long ago? To think any elder can pressure Xi is just laughable.
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3 hours ago, Luca said:
From everything i read about china the last years, the hours over hours i consumed, its unthinkable to me that china will be russia 2.0 or that they will attack taiwan and ruin that beautiful island. I doubt anybody wants to destroy entire generations with another war BUT you never know and you certainly cant hedge with US largecaps!
"Too young, too simple. Sometime naive!"
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1 hour ago, Luca said:
Literally true for western politicians too
Name me a western political party that has similar influence on AMZN as CCP on BABA.
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16 hours ago, Luca said:
What do you mean with "nothing changed"?
In the picture is the entrance to the Zhongnanhai, where high Chinese officials live and work. It's not an accident that the slogans on the wall are from culture revolution era (Long live CCP! Chairman Mao's thoughts are invincible!). CCP is the same party as decades ago. The main goal is and always will be to stay in power. So the "reform" and "regulations" are all means for achieving such goal.
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53 minutes ago, Luca said:
As long as those slogans are still on such landmark in Beijing, nothing fundamentally changed for CCP.
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13 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
During the last financial crisis, E*Trade got into trouble, because they also started a banking sub and made it easy to get home equity loans. They had some toxic looking assets on the balance sheet that they could work out over time, but it does not take much for the customers to get running, especially since brokerage is very commoditized product with low switching costs.
I guess these things repeat. Schwab is probably fine here, but what I don’t get is why even take a chance? Why not just create a short treasury ladder instead of going for long duration bonds for an extra 1% or so yield.
I work on one of the most conservative investment products. In the last few years, many pushed for longer duration and lower quality just to receive a few more basis points a year. That is a few hundred dollars for every million$. But these a few basis points means a lot in rankings. And executives need to justify their fat salaries and consultants their fees!
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This guy is one of the most influential banker in China.
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About break even. GLTA!
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Hi,
Can anyone recommend a broker that can trade convertible bonds? They are not available on Interactive Brokers.
Thanks!
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Which brokers do you use for bond trading? It seems many convertible bonds are not available at Interactive Brokers, for example 98426TAF3.
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4 hours ago, RetroRanger said:
Funny that china even said many positive things
"We will make appropriate reductions to the negative list for foreign investment, protect the rights and interests of foreign investors in accordance with the law, and foster a world-class business environment that is market-oriented, law-based, and internationalized. We will promote the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative."
"We will improve the functions of the capital market and increase the proportion of direct financing. We will take stronger action against monopolies and unfair competition, break local protectionism and administrative monopolies, and conduct law-based regulation and guidance to promote the healthy development of capital.2
It's not about what he says. Everybody supportive of economic reform were pushed out. There will be fundamental changes in the country's direction going forward and nobody can stop him now.
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I started running in 2015. Spent $1.99 on an APP called 5K Pacer that trains you to run 5K without stopping. 7 years and more than 10K miles later, I never felt better fitness wise. Nowadays, it's the first thing that starts most of my days...
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Top China Strategist Sees Stocks in Limbo as GDP Growth Slows to 2%
Hong is one of the top China analysts. Fired from his job because of his bearish view of Chinese market and banned from all social media. He is quite active on twitter since started "vacationing". Worth a follow IMO.
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This involves a bunch of trades lasted about an hour so it's not a single mistake. The disturbing fact is that there is little transparency in the whole process. I only got an email informing the ruling without process/contact information for appeal, etc.
The forfeited gain was mid five figure dollar amount. So if any entrepreneur lawyer familiar with Frankfurt Exchange is interested, feel free to contact me and I'm willing to split potential profit.
Coincidently, I bought a very small position in PTPI last week when its price more than tripled after someone released fraudulent merger news. If you ask me this is a case that trades should be busted. When I asked my broker, they said NASDAQ decided that trades would stand.
China
in General Discussion
Posted
Jay Chou in Chinese Music world is like Jay-Z in USA. Now imaging a "fake Jay-Z"'s concert ticket sells more than the real guy's!
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/entertainment/story20240610-3881645