gjangal
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Posts posted by gjangal
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DSW, BOJA and SAVE. They benefit from tax reductions , but my thesis is that it’s not reflected in the price. I am buying this as a basket or cheap stocks. not too heavily into one name
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criteo , reasonable big holding and big drop towards last quarter caused 3% hit to performance. Average cost over time was around 40.
This is a classic case of disruption possibly upending the business model. Should have built a meaningful goog and fb position instead. Still have a small position to track how they are going to address this.
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bought some bitcoin... where do i report for reindoctrination?
There are many people signing up for accounts at exchanges still. This thing is going to go on for a while
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I am in the "Please God , Just one more bubble" camp right now
I can't really comprehend what you mean? Do you think we are NOT in a bubble and praying for it to get higher into bubble territory? If so my question is, how do you know we aren't in a bubble right now. Also, WOW you are an optimistic soul, you want the market to do what? double to get into bubble territory?
I saw your comment on a bumper sticker in 2005 or so, and I remember thinking, huh? How do you know we aren't in a bubble now? Turns out we were in a bubble, just a housing bubble.... haha
I don't know for sure that we are not in a bubble or not. My personal opinion is that we are not in a bubble right now, given where rates are. It was just a light hearted comment wishing for a bubble. #allequitiesallthetime
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Bought a small position in CAKE . Relatively cheap for a good company. They have a new store cash ROI of 17-20%. I think it's only a matter of time before they start growing same store sales again
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BBY , it's cheap at 52. they have been growing online sales at a great clip. Price match with amazon in store. Should produce 1.4 bn in free cash flow.
Also BOJA is starting to appear cheap.
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Are there any mutual funds worth investing for the long haul anymore?
You can take a look at AKREX. Chuck Akre is a great investor who understands growth and value
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ABC - Amerisource Bergen , looks reasonably cheap given all the headwinds. Growing revenues low to mid single digits. Industry has oligopolistic characteristics. Long term contracts . If generic price deflation subsides, pretty decent upside
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Firearm stocks are attractive right now. Look at RGR / AOBC. I know, I know.. ethics. Just don't tell anyone you bought them or you can blame it on me. Not something you can exactly sink half your portolio into but could be one part of a diversified portfolio. I think the market is over-reacting / over-predicting a large slowdown in purchases. Earnings will pull back a bit for sure but still too cheap right now.
no free lunch,
RGR is very cheap. How do you get comfortable around sales going forward ? What if we are the top of the cycle for revenues? Any insight into revenue visibility would be appreciated. Thanks
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Stating the obvious but I think there are pockets of undervaluations still. US Banks are an area where you can get decent returns with dividend (12 to 15% total). A basket of wfc, bac and c can outperform
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Should have been more articulate, when i said asset managers i meant to say asset managers with a small AUM, probably individual traders who care about trading costs and make a living out of it
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I've heard from fellow software developers that IB doesn't have that great of a technology infrastructure. If they don't have great tech infra , it is very hard to make money in the market making business. This was a few years ago though, things may have changed
Their only advantage is cheapest trading costs that small RIA's and asset managers find beneficial.
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KORS looks even cheaper, makes sense to buy a basket of these cheap names
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RL looks interesting. If it can do 500mn in free cash for the next few years it's really cheap, however if revenue drops further and it's not able to do 500mn it's not a slam dunk. It has 800 mm in debt and lease obligations
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Shouldn't have used the word bubble myself, what i meant to say was that the comparison to 2000 valuations doesn't hold well.
- In my opinion i see atleast FB, Goog and amzn growing double digit revenues the next five years. Whether you ll get a double digit return holding these depends on a lot of factors. AMZN is just crazy valuations
- Interest rates, whether they are low or not.
- What do they do with the amount of cash on their balance sheets. At 11-15% rev cagr google will have 250B in cash if you look out 5 years, around 35-40% of mktcap in cash maybe abut less depending on a tax haircut. I see google and FB controlling atleast 40% or 50% of global advertising budgets due to their dominance.
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From a bubble perspective , these situations are not comparable atleast to GOOG. This made me go look for some
context at that time . Valuations today are not cheap, but they are not 2000 levels
MSFT for year 2000
Net cash : ~ 20b
Net income: ~ 10B
Rev growth: 25%
PE at 600B: ~ 60
Interest rates: Higher than today
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Considering buying SHOP. Motley fool pitch, growing revenues at a good clip. Run by a founder with vision. Seems like a good way to play multichannel retail
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If I had to guess, I'd say the next downturn will happen very, very quickly. I don't know if it'll be a 1987 type level but I think it will surprise many. Most folks think the market is overvalued and are only looking at the market since cash yields next to nothing. Look at the "flash crash" of 2010. With social media, fake news and all the hatred of cash, I think this is a somewhat likely scenario.
On the other side, if interest rates stay low, the rally could continue for the foreseeable future. There is still a fair amount of fear and gloom out there.
+1
There are too many factors at play like interest rates staying low for few more years and some form of tax cuts.
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Bought some CVS and GOOG , just 2% positions each with the intent to add more. Expect low double digit return over a few years. Really not confident of adding heavily because i think the market can go down 10-15% just because it can.
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Mastercard from late 2011, early 2012 and still holding on. The problem with investing in compounders is you get too few opportunities to deploy cash and you have to be ready to do so in a large percentage, otherwise there is no point. Have had my mistakes of selling goog, hdb and sbux after just doubling my money. Lost money in apple in 2013 and watched it double after that. Very painful
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I am in the "Please God , Just one more bubble" camp right now
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Don't know if yiu have tried this already, try pressing control key and scroll mouse or control key and the plus sign. this should zoom the web page
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EPAM. it's an outsourcing story run by a founder/owner operator
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it looks like his own game is being played on him this time. He is on the defensive trying to defend his comments
The Bank Investor's Handbook - Nathan Tobik & Kenneth J. Yellen
in Books
Posted
Just bought this on Kindle. Look forward to reading this. I have always enjoyed Nate's insights on this board. The podcast with Eric is also a good listen
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/interview-with-nate-tobik/msg321108/#msg321108