Pauly
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Posts posted by Pauly
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Yikes! Nevermind, police away, John.
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Who knew that COBF had self-appointed hall monitors?
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Yes very sad, though he had a great life.
Of course I love Warren and Charlie, but Paul Allen really lived the billionaire life that I think I'd like to live. He gave tremendously to help the less fortunate, but he also owned his favorite sports teams, built a massive yacht, gave money to build a telescope array to search for alien life...and on and on. Seemed like a hell of a guy.
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"We are outspoken about our optimism. These days, though, optimism seems to be in short supply. The headlines are filled with awful news. Every day brings a different story of political division, violence, or natural disaster. Despite the headlines, we see a world that’s getting better."
https://www.gatesnotes.com/2018-Annual-Letter?WT.mc_id=00_00_00_share_em
My basic assumption is that to first order all gains in health, lifespan and environment are a pure function of one variable: per capita GDP. And per capita GDP is basically a function of rule of law, capitalism and effective government. So I have always had problems with philanthropy because it appears to be a waste of time.
I'm very willing to be persuaded I'm wrong about this. Anybody have any good evidence that the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation has achieved anything?
Just for starters. Eradication of polio....
How about an over 40% reduction in Malaria deaths in between 2000-2012? Not that the Gates Foundation can (or would) take all of the credit, but they sure contributed more than nothing.
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Jim Grant apologizes and admits the report was sloppy and incorrect.
Did Jim wake up with a horse's head in his bed?
I kid. Interesting bit of drama to follow. And thanks for your input, TwoCities, it's always nice to hear first hand accounts.
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Would it be asking too much to take this to the Berkshire Hathaway category?
Cardboard
He didn't put it into Berkshire Hathaway because being long Berkshire is universally accepted: Honouring Warren Buffett, be proud of your shares.
Should not be any debate about it.
Hah! Absolutely love this guy! ^
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FFH.TO. Agree with TwoCities, no_free_lunch, et al.
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...and Pochahontas shows.
Ugh. Way to drag the conversation even lower and invalidate anything useful you had to say. These types of comments are now fair game since your guy won the election, is that right?
Missing the forest for the trees. Seems like a common trait amongst many of you. If you choose to cover your eyes and ears because I choose a humorous name for a circus spectacle character, be my guest. If you'd like to sit at the big boy table and discuss my point that DC(both traditional Dems and Republicans) is a circus show, well then step right up. Thanks
Dog whistle bigotry is humorous to you, got it. Keep that up and you'll surround yourself with some terrific people. And wait..what? DC is a circus you say! And politicians are the clowns!! Why I never...
Some truly ground breaking ideas are coming from your big boy table.
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...and Pochahontas shows.
Ugh. Way to drag the conversation even lower and invalidate anything useful you had to say. These types of comments are now fair game since your guy won the election, is that right?
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Elizabeth Holmes is a perfect example of what worries me with a story like this. For some reason it's seen as admirable these days to *not* have any expertise or experience before trying to establish yourself as a master of a certain field.
Holmes was so brilliant that she didn't even need to finish university before revolutionizing medical testing...or, it turns out, she just didn't know what the hell she was doing.
There's nothing wrong with getting some reps and putting in work before you set off on your own.
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Isn't this guy's hubris a massive red flag in itself? Investing is largely an exercise in mastering human psychology, and his humble-bragging LinkedIn profile suggests he's not quite self aware yet. He was what, 13 or 14 when Lehman collapsed? And now he's a market wizard...?
Sure he might be, or maybe he just hasn't been humbled yet. I wouldn't want my money to be his learning experience.
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As an immigrant I have been a long time Democrat supporter. However I am feeling increasingly concerned that they are crossing the line and they are willing to do whatever to get more votes. If this continues the country will soon become Mexico or China.
I hope you're not basing your opinion on one sensationalist article from a very dubious website. Do some basic research on the Motor Voter Act and you'll see that the original version came into effect over 20 years ago.
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What are some of you guys smoking? Markets are at record highs, world debt loads for individuals, banks, governments, etc are worse than in 2008/2009, and you are buying stuff in this market!!!!!!!!
I thought this was a value investing site which Parsad started.
I own cash, FFH (huge downside insurance), PDH (only in the 1st inning with Parsad's company), and a little bit of GUD (Toronto).
Hope you momentum guys keep this market going, cause I will start to salivate where all this will end. Best of luck to all of you.
I didn't realize that the point of a value investing forum was to look at macro factors and determine that there are zero opportunities to be had. I guess I'll come back when all of that stuff has been sorted out...
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From the perspective of a neighboring country I find it absolutely mind boggling that anyone could consider voting for Trump. Entertaining? Sure that's fine for a TV show, but is that really what you want in your leader?
He's an absolute disgrace, and although I'm not a big fan of Hillary I hope she absolutely shreds him in the debates. He has no business getting even a sniff at the White House.
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I understand it was a bit political and that makes it a bit personal. Also, I thought there were some good lines in there. Althougg thought it was a fair assessment.
You can disagree with him on a political level but you have to admit he's a very smart man and, I think, his statementship has been superb....but I always make outlandish comments.
It seems to me that America has never been less respected in the eyes of the world as we are today- both with respect to our allies who feel we have abandoned them and with respect to our enemies who feel emboldened enough to threaten us regularly. I would not call that superb statesmanship.
Really? You think the US is less respected now than when GWB was the laughing stock of the world? Living in an ally country I can tell you that the US is looked upon much more favorably than in the dark years of 2000-2008...
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Anecdote from Vancouver, FWIW, shows some of the mindset going on and the way people get houses they can't really afford:
“There is mass hysteria here as people rush to buy now or be priced out forever. I thought things were crazy before, now they are just beyond absurd. It seems like people are doing whatever they can do buy now, including (probably) pledging their firstborn children. Some have this mentality that they must buy to ensure the future of their children, otherwise their kids will never be able to afford a place years down the road, since people seem to have forgotten that Vancouver isn’t the only city in Canada, or the world, that has houses.“A friend of ours has been looking to buy for months, to no success. Outbid on many properties, until they finally found one that had no other offers. Bad location, they made an offer and it was accepted. Price is $800k for a 3 bed townhouse. The bank gave them the bad news: they didn’t qualify for the mortgage. No s**t sherlock, hard to justify a $750k mortgage when the family income is only $70k per year. Following some fancy footwork by the broker (something that seemed to involve kiting cheques between family members)-voila! The deal is done, townhouse is theirs. It seems outrageous to me but this seems like a fact of life these days that it’s an any-price type of game….doesn’t matter what the price is, the broker can help you get the place you want. If the bank doesn’t follow through, private lenders can step in too.
But these types of anecdotes have been going around for what...9 years or more? I can't speak to the rest of Canada, but Vancouver is in a perfect storm :
- beautiful city (say what you want about the rain, but the city and its surroundings have great 'curb appeal'
- only large Canadian city with a moderate climate (Canada is still a desirable country to live in for many around the world)
- proximity to HK/mainland China, and a large, established Asian community
- an army of well paid real estate types constantly playing hype man
- opaque market so people rely on realtors and hearsay for information
- over 1 1/2 decades of steady price increases that even the Great Financial Crisis could barely dent. And the cratering of share prices in 08/09 made real estate even more desirable in Canada since it appears rock solid compared to paper assets.
- rock bottom borrowing rates that have inflated every financial asset.
- my own anecdote from a friend in the industry: as the CAD declined, Vancouver house prices rose by an equal amount so that they were nominally the same in USD. Does that make sense for the average home buyer?
Reading a blog like Garth Turner's makes you want to short everything you can find in Vancouver real estate, but if you had somehow shorted back when this thread started you'd be insolvent by now. Too hard pile for me.
It's depressing, though, that skilled people (doctors, engineers etc.) are choosing to avoid the city yet we're up to our eyeballs in rich real estate types adding little (or negative) value.
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SD.
I guess a have a couple questions that I have since I don't know enough about the technology.
1. Why doesn't V/MA develop a similar technology they can exploit?
2. If a decline is imminent and coming soon why haven't V and MA seen this/thought of this yet?
They can see it but what can they do about it? Lets say Apple and JPMorgan partner to offer credit and payment through the phone... Visa would like to be in the transaction somehow, but what can they really do about it? They may offer similar services, but market share goes down, competition goes up, and margins go down.
Further, p2p margins go to zero. Whether Apple, Google, Paypal, JPM, or V/MA or some combination are the ones that do it, it is irrelevant. That cow is milked.
Does Apple (or Google, or anyone) really want to partner with JPM, then have to go and partner with BAC, C, WFC... then go to Canada and partner with TD, RY, BMO, then go to the UK, then Europe and on and on...all to get into a business that's not within their core competency and has a very high risk of not succeeding?
Or, would they rather just partner with Visa, who already has the network in place, and be done with it.
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Interesting points being made. The bear case for V underplays a couple of important factors, IMO:
-V/MA have built up incredible reputations in the last few decades. A lot of people *hate* their bank, and the banking industry in general. Yet V+MA are two of the most well respected financial services brands. This won't change overnight and will be very difficult to compete with, even with very deep pockets.
It's like Buffet's quote regarding Coke: if you were given $100 billion to dislodge V/MA, could you do it? I'm doubtful.
-the talk of new technology overtaking the duopoly seems to assume that V/MA are standing still. These are nimble, asset light firms whose sole business is payment processing. It's all they think about. I'm confident in their ability to adapt to new technologies, they've done it wonderfully so far.
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Is it really though? The quote about history not repeating, but rhyming comes to mind.
Apple: 908 refugees, and there was no credible the threat of that boat being infiltrated Jewish agents of war hellbent on mass destruction of innocent lives inside the USA.
Orange: 100,000 refugees, and there is a credible threat of the Syrian refugees being infiltrated ISIS Jihadists hellbent on mass destruction of innocent lives inside the USA.
People fleeing violence and persecution and being turned away because of fear and prejudice seems like similar fruit to me.
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Is it really though? The quote about history not repeating, but rhyming comes to mind.
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Oh right, Google Wallet. I remember hearing about that when it was launched...3 years ago? 4? Does anybody use it? Maybe the same people who use Google+
And from the Google Wallet website : "All purchases are ensured with MasterCard’s Zero Liability protection."
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Mark Steyn? Why not link to a comment from breitbart.com.
I support my country bringing in refugees as I see it as a fundamental duty to help fellow human beings in need. There's no religious belief behind it, just common decency. Do proper background checks, but then do the humane thing. History always favors doing the humane thing.
And if terrorists have turned you into a coward, then they've beaten you already.
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Why would it be 'cooler' to use a payment system run by a company whose sole reason for being is data mining for directed advertising? Saving a fraction of a percent won't be enough if people think their financial transaction records are for sale. I'm not saying that things won't change, but doesn't Apple have the upper hand so far? And even they're accepting that they have to work with the big 3.
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The truth is that school shootings really are no big deal
I'm sorry that you had to go through that, but it is difficult to enumerate all the ways your comments are wrong.
Do you have children? Your lack of pathos suggests that you do not.
You can use statistics to argue for a lot of things, but to suggest that school children being murdered in class is 'no big deal' because we need self driving cars is being almost laughably callous.
To better illustrate Pauly's point, take a poll of your friends asking "Would you rather stop school shootings forever tomorrow or have fully autonomous cars by 2025?" It will be well over 50% that choose school shootings, when in fact that would save farrrrrrr fewer lives than having autonomous cars in ten years.
Again, that is dumbing down the situation to being an either/or proposition, which it is not.
Fairfax India new issue
in Fairfax Financial
Posted
Haven't Modi's reforms been somewhat lackluster anyway? I'm no expert on Indian politics, but from what I've read Modi isn't in trouble because people are sick of his reforms, it's that many people haven't seen any real progress. Though I'd be skeptical that the new Ghandi's could produce better results.