Pauly
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Posts posted by Pauly
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On 2/13/2024 at 1:13 AM, Parsad said:
Episode 5 of "True Detectives: Night Country" was just really damn good! Recommend this year's series. Cheers!
Oof. Finished watching the latest season, and what a mess it was. Incoherent plot that went nowhere and had no internal logic. Terribly written characters, pointless callbacks to the (much better) first season...I could go on and on. I'm amazed that reviews have been mostly positive. It's just not for me I suppose.
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I don't get it. Do you think that people here believe that Berkshire has been the best performing stock over the last 25 years? No one thinks that.
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Has there ever been an instance where a government agency has stepped in to give the market something it hasn't asked for, and had the market adopt it enthusiastically?
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2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:
You all really need to take a powder ....
If I pay 15x earnings, what I am REALLY doing?
I am saying current earnings, growing at the inflation rate or better for 15 YEARS, discounted at todays market rate of interest. Yet I know that both blockchain and CBDC are severely disrupting payment rails, and that historic inflation has been a lot higher than the 2-3% CBs are targeting? Most would suggest that future earnings will be a lot less than forecast as activity is lost to competing solutions, and discounted at too low a rate. The multiple is too high.
The moat is the payment rails ! it can't be replicated !! Yada, yada ....
Back in the day the moat was horse and buggy infrastructure across the land ! yet the motor car utterly replaced it in how long a period? That vaunted 'rails value' is little more than a melting ice cube, melting faster the closer it gets to expiry day.
CBDC instantly displaces rails. There is no charge to transact, no fees to pay (or be paid) by anyone, payments are in live-time and guaranteed by the CB, and there is no need for a Visa/Debit card period If you really want points, just buy them at their cash cost. Sure, but it'll never happen !. Yada, yada.
Until very recently, Ali Pay and We Chat Pay, held a combined 94% of the payment market in China.- two private companies in a communist country with a near monopoly control over ability to make payment. China took steps, and hard launched the Digital Yuan with the Beijing Olympics ... today that 94% is a lot lower, and continuing to fall quarter over quarter. So much for it'll never happen !!
So ,, if you're a VISA/MC investor, and weren't aware of this .... you need to ask yourself why?
Leave the cool aide behind.
SD
A lot of assumptions here. You 'know' that blockchain and CBDC are disrupting payment rails? 'Most would suggest that earnings will be a lot less than forecast'? I haven't seen any evidence that either of these things are true.
China's reaction to Ali/We Pay doesn't have a correlation to anything that would happen in NA/Europe. V/MA have no chance of taking over payments in China, and I'd say that western governments have no chance in taking over payments in their respective countries.
And from the Apple release:
'Tap to Pay on iPhone will work with contactless credit and debit cards from leading payment networks, including American Express, Discover, Mastercard, and Visa.'So Apple wants to displace JPM, Citi, RBC in the payment space and take over that cash stream? Fair enough. It sounds like V/MA is still going to get their fractional cut though.
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I've never heard a real benefit for the purchaser in giving up V/MA cards and moving to blockchain payments. So the merchant doesn't have to pay the credit card fee....as the buyer, what do I care? Is he going to knock his prices down 2%, or will he just pocket it? I'm betting on the latter. When I use my Visa card (or Mastercard, Amex, whatever), I collect travel points/get cash back, I have a 500lb gorilla in my corner if I want to dispute a charge, I have a strong layer of security between my bank account and whatever seller I'm dealing with. Why would I want to move away from that?
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I thought the same thing. Browder's story could make for a good movie, but I guess they'd have to go with a different title now.
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If I were to go bankrupt; not just bankrupt, but so financially ruined that I felt the need to flee into the arms of a totalitarian regime to get myself straight again, I don't think I'd be fit to give any financial advice beyond 'don't be like me'. I certainly wouldn't be hocking a book titled '12 Rules for Getting Rich'.
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It's like when famously overweight Dr. Phil wrote a diet book.
I guess Peterson has found being a snake oil salesman pays much better than Canadian academia.
Oh, and his daughter now charges people for advice on eating only meat. Worked out great for dad!
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Isn't this the guy who went on an all meat diet and then got so hooked on benzos that he asked some Russian doctors to put him in a coma? Ya, I think I'll do the opposite of whatever he's doing.
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If you're buying small cap spec stocks in the public markets and manage to hit it big, I have no problem with that. Ted Weschler's Roth seems completely fine to me; he played by the rules, and he played very well. Good for him. Thiel's Roth looks a lot more like self-dealing, as Spek has highlighted. That just looks like blatant tax fraud and should incur the proper penalties.
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It seems ridiculous that you can put private shares in a Roth IRA. I'm sure in 1999 everyone at Paypal knew that their shares were worth more than $0.001, but the IRS just accepts $0.001 as the price since there's no public way to value them? Strange.
Peter Thiel definitely seems to want to make a run at the title of 'Most Hated Billionaire'.
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Bought some more BRK as penance for my Friday purchase of BB.
Buying a small amount of BB was strictly gambling on the fact that the hive mind of WSB and its watchers would try to replicate what's been happening with GME. Right so far, but I'm not good at this game and will probably sell at the wrong time.
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Four days? I don't think I'd eat my cat after four days, I like her too much.
Where did this anecdote come from?
massive lockdowns in China. One guy just eat his pet because he wasn't allowed to go out to get food for four days.
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Trump has a point (imo) pointing out the protests On one hand and the resistance to allowing campaign rallies on the other :
However, the protesters skewed young and mostly wear masks and the protests were outdoors, while Campaign rallies would be indoors and the audience as well as the headliners (including himself) skew older. Will they wear masks?
This will be an interesting experiment.
For the mask question I would put my money on 'No'.
The best way to encourage these rallies to be safe would be to ask the President if he really wants to kill off a good number of his guaranteed votes.
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Mattis is a Reagan Republican's wet dream, a man of unimpeachable credentials. It'll be funny to see Trump and his boot-lickers degrade themselves further by trying to tear that man down.
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On what basis are viruses not living things?
Interesting reading on the subject : https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-viruses-alive-2004/
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Seems like we need to close down the White House, quarantine the inhabitants and deep clean it.
That needed to happen 3 years ago.
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The ability to buy booze in Costco is one thing I truly envy about the United States.
I'm finishing off a bottle of Bunnahabhain 12 year old Scotch. It tastes like it should cost twice what it does.
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Midnight in Chernobyl. Great book that's just as captivating as the recent HBO series, but with much more detail.
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@wabuffo
"but bailouts will be designed to punish equity holders on behalf of US taxpayers"
that was the GSE example in 2008, but can one say, with fear and trembling, that this time is different? a narrative, mostly false, was built to demonize GSEs but here we have the Chinese to blame! I mght be too sanguine, but I dont think crackdowns will be harsh in connection with any bailouts this time
Political climate is much different than in 2008. Businesses of all sorts are demonized just for doing business. If BA needs a bailout the pound of flesh will weigh a ton. Bernie Sanders could be assigned to oversee its re-organization.
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What I've learned following this forum: it wouldn't be a Cardboard post if it didn't contain negativity towards somebody. The guy seems to live with a permanent chip on his shoulder.
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Bought GOOG for the first time. I now expect it'll get broken up and sold for scrap.
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Aberhound, perhaps it is crazy low interest rates in the coming years. With the Fed indicating it is done tightening and likely to stop negative QE and to cut rates as a next move we llok to be returning to the free money paradigm. This likely means asset prices will resume their upward path. Good for stocks and real estate.
And maybe the hellholes reported in LA, San Francisco and Seattle in this article will divert some demand back to Vancouver:
Jeez, I know it's foolish to read the comments below an article, but it looks like Zerohedge has really become a cesspool.
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Thanks for bumping this old post, I never would have seen this!
This really is a great resource. The cast of characters, heroes and villains, is quite amazing. I guess no one can turn down an interview request from the Feds.
I'm going through all of the big names (Buffett, Treasury big wigs, bank CEOs, hedge fund gurus etc.), but if there are any that are off the beaten path that you'd recommend, please post!
What are you buying today?
in General Discussion
Posted
Yeah I do hope they can figure out their quality issues. I know for hockey jerseys they're considered absolute junk next to Adidas, and the see-through baseball pant debacle has brought their name to the masses for all the wrong reasons. Still, they seem to be taking over sports apparel.