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Scorps

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    Value Traps

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    There is a story about Buffett in Snowball, and Lowensteins Book:

     

    Warren met a crusty old school guy at an annual meeting who was a client of Ben Graham.  Crusty asked Buffett why he had bought some stock and Buffett answered that he bought it because someone else (might have been Graham) had bought it.  The guy made fun of Buffett and thoroughly embarrassed him into never having that as his answer again. 

     

    I nearly blindly followed "gurus" into stocks way back. There is no chance I would do that now.  I have been around long enough to realize that the majority of people have no idea what they are doing.  Ask Bill Miller why he was top heavy financials in 2008.  Ask Einhorn why he was chairman of New Century just prior to going into bankruptcy - he got sued and settled out of court.  Ask Prem Watsa about Canwest Global, sfk/fbk pulp, Lindsey morden cunningham whatever.  Ask Buffett about his shoe companies.  Not saying that the above have no clue, its just that we all do the best we can with imperfect information. 

     

    +1

    How Are You Thinking Bout The Drop In Oil Prices?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Are O&G business's that bad to invest in if your holding period is 2-3 years? Maybe for longer term holdings, as these are more cyclical plays with lower ROC's than other industries. I can understand the thesis that they are dependant on the price of crude and therefore more speculative but if oil really takes a beating, won't some of the better business's be good cyclical buys?

     

    The problem with cyclicals in general is when to buy, and later, when to sell. 

    Do you buy XOM at $88 or wait for a real rout for it to get to 30,40, or 50, or less.  i.e. when is the bottom of the cycle? 

     

    Then there is the obsolescence issue.  In the last 100 years we have seen railways undergo permanent secular decline, and more recently pulp and paper.  While I dont think oil is in a serious permanent decline I am inclined to put in the word: Yet.  At a price the lowest cost, best capitalized producers will survive, there may be alot of pain along the way. 

     

    Uccmal,

    I understand what you are saying. To stay on the safer side, I will wait for a much larger margin of safety.

    How Are You Thinking Bout The Drop In Oil Prices?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Are O&G business's that bad to invest in if your holding period is 2-3 years? Maybe for longer term holdings, as these are more cyclical plays with lower ROC's than other industries. I can understand the thesis that they are dependant on the price of crude and therefore more speculative but if oil really takes a beating, won't some of the better business's be good cyclical buys?

    Investing from the Grave - Plans for Wealth Management if You Suddenly Die

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I've been thinking about a similar problem; has anybody stored a list with accounts / passwords for all your online brokerage accounts somewhere? I have quite a few of them, very easy to forget one or two. I'm thinking about depositing this information at the bank / notary.

     

    Writser, for all your accounts and passwords I would recommend an app/website I've been using the past years to securely store all my passwords and important information. It's called "SecureSafe". What's great about it is the option to add a beneficiary so that if something happens to you, all your information will be passed on to the beneficiary. You can leave them instructions as well.

     

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