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Ian L

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  1. People are much the same the world over. He would receive a lot of praise and elevation alongside some criticism in most countries too.
  2. Going short the futures on Eurex would be an efficient way to set up the trade, however you would end up having to roll the futures over up to 4 times a year, and that would depend on the price of the roll. You should wait until there is a liquid market in the roll before trading it.
  3. It depends upon what percentage of humanity should be called genius. Certain high IQ organisations would have us call each person testing in the top 2% a genius, with others having a much higher level required. I would call Buffett a genius, but it is subjective.
  4. I would not consider FFH cash. To me, one of the benefits of having cash is to be able to pick up bargains as they occur in a downturn. In a market crash, FFH will probably go down as well.
  5. Im sure there are other risks. With the bulk of the buyers in Knightsbridge now being foreigners, the safe haven for their money might not be so safe. Prices have already rocketed from 10 years ago, so further appreciation lies at the hands of the international rich. Prices in London as a whole are very expensive now compared to outside London (typically the ratio was 1.2 - 1.5 times in London to the rest of England, now the ratio is 2 times), so this might mean revert. The next government is looking likely to be Labour, and led by Ed Miliband, who politically is left of any Prime Minister in the Uk since 1979. He has said that he wants to bring in a mansion tax, which will bring much higher housing taxes and should bring about some sellers. I agree there is potential there if the rich keep getting richer and prime central london is a place where the ultra rich want to live, but just wanted to point out that although it seems like prices in London can only go up, that has been said about many other bubbles in the past.
  6. You have to look at it from a personal point of view as well. Are you happy to live in a place owned by someone else and pay rent to them?In the end, I got sick of renting and bought my own place, not because it is a good investment, but just so I could own my own place. It might take years and years for house prices to correct. Politicians realize that many of the electorate want their house's price to go up and up, so engineering a continuation of the boom is what they try to do. In the UK, they brought in "help to buy", whereby the government would provide a loan to house buyers, so that they could buy a place with only a 5% deposit. This was sold to the public as helping hard working families buy, but the result is just that house prices just got pushed up. It should have been called "help to sell".
  7. The Euro zone has a balance of trade surplus and current account surplus, so it does not seem like the Euro is overvalued on that basis. That is the problem when countries like Germany have such success with exports, compared to some of the southern European countries. Im sure the politicians would like it to go down a lot to reduce unemployment in certain areas, but then surely the Euro area will just export even more, pushing it up again.
  8. Thanks for that. There is such a huge contrast in the reading habits between the reading habits of the poor and wealthy. I didn't expect there to be such a difference.
  9. There are also non financial considerations. If you own the place you live, you don't have to deal with any meddling landlords, who might let themselves in during the day, or put up rent every year, or spend the minimal amount possible on the interior. Owning the place I live in has given more security, less hassle and I can enjoy superior home furnishings that I buy myself.
  10. Which company is BNL? I don't think the fair value for Markel in 5 years time will be BV. Being able to underwrite profitably on a consistent basis is worth more than book value and if they are still doing this in 5 years time, it will still be the case. As time moves on and Markel acquires more companies under Markel Ventures, then those companies may become worth substantially more than BV, just as Geico has become for Berkshire.
  11. Just find an illiquid micro cap and buy as much as you can regardless of price. The price should go up in the short term.
  12. Dr Dre has been great at getting other rappers to promote these headphones so all of the kids and many young adults have been buying these over priced headphones. Now apple own them, is Jay Z, Diddy, Birdman or other going to start their own headphones brand? I bet apple have a plan to improve the headphones, but I wonder if they will appeal in the same way if the rappers are promoting some other headphones.
  13. For the buyback at 1.2 times book value, is the book value the last reported book value, or the book value on the day of the buyback?
  14. To run a business, it is easier if you get yourself a competitive edge. This can be having the right connections or being an expert in some niche area. If you have those, plus some capital, the chances of success are higher than without. A potential entrepreneur is more likely to have these connections/ expertise and possibly even capital with a few years working experience in their industry of choice, rather than just being a college student.
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