gary17

i watched it too in a crazy world today , it is good to watch something like this, that literally lifts you up and make you feel hopeful about the future!

high speed rail (300km plus) will be better even at 200. 3h is easier on train flying may be 45min but add arrive at airport 1.5h before and hassle of security forget it now many more travels will be substituted by virtual

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/29/us-responses-1918-flu-pandemic-offer-stark-lessons-coronavirus-now?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Gmail

how does he get to be. billionaire and i’m still working.

these mistakes were based in part by poor info from China and a WHO don’t dispute Trump. Trudeau. many leaders are responsible. but i think the early info made people believe it is similar to SARS than flu in terms of transmission

Boris Johnson was a big fan of heard immunity for the UK and wanted to get it done as fast as possible. You want to ask him about his thoughts on the subject again? He got sick.. wasn't that the point? SARS went away without herd immunity so did EBOLA the scientific fact is after the disease is back down to the manageable level, it can be get rid of with strong contact tracing and containment!

but the acronym COVID-19 is clearly standing for China Originated Virus In December 2019...

Rest of China had a lockdown too that was more stringent than in Europe or the US. Population is wearing masks and companies go to great length to avoid infection at the work place (I mentioned before that they shut down air circulation systems in factories /offices and vent with fresh air. They possibly are very good at contact tracing too (Big brother state). I also think that the Chinese government is lying about cases to some extend. Now if it were a full fledged epidemics, lying doesn’t work, but a few dozen unreported cases or even death here and there to avoid public unrest seem to be plausible, If not likely... Interesting. So did the rest of China do physical distancing / lockdown like what we are doing in Canada/USA/Europe? I know Wuhan was shut and just opened a few days ago. It seems pretty amazing China managed to keep the rest of the country operating.

So does anyone know why is it that after Wuhan was shut down, we didn't see so many other cases in the rest of China? I mean if it was so easy for Europe and the US to get out of control - surely it would have just been as easily for the rest of China to go out of control too... what did the rest of China do that made the cases much lower than Europe / USA?

a good reason for many asian countries doing well could be their BCG immunization if you look at the world - this virus hit particularly hard if rich western countries that have abandoned BCG vaccine. China is an outlier - maybe they were getting fake vaccines...

as a canadian and non trump supporter i do think my blame list is 1.China 2. WHO 3. and yes third is Trump for mis handling Justin is just as bad at handling this as Trump- Justin better at presentation but having blindly believed in info from WHO is a huge mistake IMO.

if. no measures were taken 2M+ deaths. not 70,000 the 100-200k is with measures

so back to stock market... quick rebound ? don't know ? prolonged recession...

so to get immunity , i agree there's only two ways: vaccine or herd immunity. vaccine is at least 12months out- so for the next 12 months there are only a couple of options: a) give up what we are doing now, get to herd immunity or do anti body tests to see if it's already here - possible b) get this under control in the next 30 days, and hopefully we get back to some sort of containment mode (we are in mitigation now). so containment = a lot of contact tracing + lots of tests + masks. i think US is setup for doing all these. i still don't see a path to a quick 'bounce back' - i think for jobs that can be done from home (i.e, professional services, ) and jobs of lesser risk (certain type of manufacturing or construction that inherently means less gathering of people for example) can likely swing back to 'normal' , but a lot of other businesses such as restaurants and movie theatres, entertainment etc will likely see a low. same with airlines i believe.

Hope trump doesn’t see this https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/big-short-s-michael-burry-joins-twitter-with-pleas-to-end-covid-19-lockdown-1.1417820 Big Short's Michael Burry joins Twitter with pleas to end COVID-19 lockdown

Why isn’t Africa as badly hit ? WHO was so worried yet they are basically not experiencing anything even close to North America and Europe

i think lessons learned for everyone i am certainly disappointed as a canadian but it highlights a point about not having all the eggs in one basket on supply chains... in this case china... I can see why Canada continues to be very friendly to China - even went as far as saying the journalist asking question about china's number as feeding into the conspiracy theory lol hard to be in between two big countries time for canada to grow up and not just be the 'nice' guy.

Japan had 0 cases during SARS

what they said quite clearly when they introduced the 30 day they said we felt we *could* lift everything at Easter but there's a very good chance things aren't 100% and will see regions flare up so they want to make it 30 days to really kill this thing more or less what they said... interesting: CDC is going to recommend nation wide wearing of masks. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/02/coronavirus-facemasks-policyreversal/

how many ventilators does NY state have? i looked at the HIME model by Chris Murray , the one Birx said matches their model (and if you play around , it's amazing the number of infected and death seems more or less right to date). anyway they predict new york needs about 10k - 13k during the peak. but i don't think it's cumulative need (you almost need the area under the curve for 5 days or however long a typical ICU patient needs it 40K sounds about right

‪China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says

we will learn if Trump's prescription works the end of the week i think if it does that will likely have an impact on the model and the physical distancing measures. for now I just pay attention to see if BC announces any more fatalities in the Lynn Valley Care centre - it's one of the sites doing the trial.

hard to project the probabilities but i think the benefit of a mask preventing transmission is (a) preventing the droplet / aerosol leaving in the initial cough or sneeze and (b) the subsequent droplets reaching hard surfaces such as elevator buttons, door knobs, etc.

I think part of the problem is in both case of the US and Canada - a part of them want to believe China was being truthful ... in Canada's case the relationship with China was at a very low point; and it was just not politically right to take a strong action. I think Justin also wanted to contrast himself from Trump... so it may have also played into his slow response. He probably wished the whole thing can be controlled / managed; and that he'd be credited for managing this in a very "canadian" way. this of course backfired - now we have many deaths in Canada and hundreds of billions in debt. and oil crash was just oil on fire... WHO is also to blame. The Director General basically was very reluctant to do anything - early on they said no human to human transmission; that got changed. Then not a global health crisis; got changed. and finally, reluctantly called this a pandemic. Tredos is from Ethiopia ; was a health minister and a politican. China gave a lot of aid to Ethiopia - as much as I like to think there's no influence; i think chances are there is biased decision , cutting china a lot of slack early on. I think history will go down as Justin being a weak leader and Trump slow to react , but after watching him yesterday and today, the tone has really changed and if i had to bet , i'd say the US at this point forward likely has a better handle on things than Canada. it'll be interesting to see where everyone is 2 weeks from now.