gary17

that’s because everybody is renovating their homes during covid lockdowns

I share this same view with you - at 38 , I am at where I thought where I would need to be at 50 and so this has changed my view about what to do next - keep working or buy a nice big house so as to keep me motivated to keep working (i.e., pay off a new big mortgage). I know this is like a real first world problem in a COVID year, so I am just thankful to have this problem instead of other kinds... Gary Long time ago I lived in Calgary - and saw the impact of the first oil bust on the city and the surrounding community. Countless people, very good at what they do, losing everything, and quite a few suicides. Since then the same thing has largely repeated every downturn, but the message has remained very clear. Even in a civilized country you can lose everything tomorrow, and a great many people still do. There are NO old, bold, bush-pilots. However, there ARE old bush-pilots - but they are ALL very good risk managers, both tactical and strategic. Most of them got to be old by executing on plans today, that made them less at risk tomorrow. During WWII Munger routinely did exactly this, day after day: never sending pilots through weather systems that would ice wings, and destabilize flight. SD thx SD and others for the wisdom / thoughts. I am in fact thinking the risk adverse thing to do is to significantly exit the stock market and use the winnings to buy a nicer home in vancouvwr. Same mortgage. just change of asset class - and in slow times, having dirt that i can use is probably better than paper loss that’s useless :)

I share this same view with you - at 38 , I am at where I thought where I would need to be at 50 and so this has changed my view about what to do next - keep working or buy a nice big house so as to keep me motivated to keep working (i.e., pay off a new big mortgage). I know this is like a real first world problem in a COVID year, so I am just thankful to have this problem instead of other kinds... Gary

An interesting phenomenon in vancouver RE Sub $2M “entry” level homes are on fire While luxury homes (over $2.5m) are soft , though things are firming up. I suspect lack of buyers being able to travel during covid is having an impact on the luxury market

what would happen to RE prices if they implement the cap gain tax for principal residence outside of Canada - i'm curious if there's capital gain on principal residence in europe and US...... Gary

that’ll be interesting to have a tax so if i need to move - i will need to come up with more money to re-enter the market... hmmm i think the RE price appreciation may also be due to the same phenomenon we are seeing in car sales— people not able to spend money travelling or on entertainment so instead using that fund towards buying a new home in an ultra low rate environment.

That comment made my day :-) I am actually thinking of doing the opposite. Gotta love how smart people can look at the exact same situation and see two completely different solutions / ways forward. No right or wrong. The key is fit. Finding a solution that works for you. Best of luck! you are thinking of exiting real estate (in Vancouver?) and entering the stock market? i’m definitely not smart financially. thx to this board (all the contributors and educators and the administrator Sanjeev of course) — i have had some fun while keeping my capital and some :)) gary, I have learned over the years that I am smart as a stump when it comes to real estate. Dumb luck explains my current situation. When I bought my current residence in Langley (2010) I paid about $600,000 and thought the market might be in a bubble. My mortgage was a little under $400,000 so my starting equity was $200,000. This spring my house might sell for $1,300,000 (perhaps more). My mortgage is under $330,000. With closing costs, costs to break my mortgage and moving costs if I sold this spring I think i might net about $900,000. I started with $200,000 so this would be a $700,000 tax free gain in 11 years (no taxes on principal residence in Canada). Locking in $700,000 real estate gain (tax free) appeals to me. Adding $900,000 to our existing investment portfolio my wife and I will be set up very well financially. If I can earn 6-8% on the total portfolio (my long term average is a shade under 15%) we will be set financially. Another smaller factor is our current house will need some improvements in the coming years. If we stay my guess is we will spend about $70,000 in improvements in the next 5 years (new windows, garage door and motor, plumbing upgrades, new powder room, new kids bathroom, new kitchen etc). We have a nice house... but it will need some work :-) The second part of the equation is lifestyle. Where we live today is a great area to bring up kids: quiet street, great schools (all walking distance), parks, bike trails, newer rec center, shopping close, great sports programs and sports facilities. Great suburban living (50 minutes from downtown Vancouver). Except our 3 kids will all likely be in same University (UBC, on the other side of town) in Sept. My wife and i will be entering the next phase of life (no kids at home; no kids sports activities to keep us busy in the evenings etc). We are thinking it might be great to live in the fun part of Vancouver (close to UBC) for the next couple of years: rent a house ($4,500/month, perhaps more). And be closer to the kids (at school) and spend the next couple of years exploring and getting know the fun parts of urban Vancouver (beautiful city). Actually, this is more what I am thinking; I just broached the idea with my wife and she needs some time to wrap her head around it :-) We have talked about it for the past 6 months or so but I decided it was time to kick it up a notch when I saw what recent sales were going for in my area. We are in no hurry. Historically we have moved every 5 years or so; 11 years in one place is a record for us. The goal is two fold: 1.) improve our lifestyle 2.) lock in / perhaps improve our financial situation No firm decision :-) When we have made moves like this in the past, it normally takes us about 12-18 months for the decision to come into focus. Every move we have made has been a great decision (looked at with hindsight). If we stay I will be happy. thanks!!!! i am in vancouver too so know the area well. i went to ubc too :) nice school!!!! Gary

if government tax you on cap gain for principal residence... how will that work practically cuz improvements etc will be tax-deductible... are they going to demand receipts from Rona & home depot going back many years ?????

That comment made my day :-) I am actually thinking of doing the opposite. Gotta love how smart people can look at the exact same situation and see two completely different solutions / ways forward. No right or wrong. The key is fit. Finding a solution that works for you. Best of luck! you are thinking of exiting real estate (in Vancouver?) and entering the stock market? i’m definitely not smart financially. thx to this board (all the contributors and educators and the administrator Sanjeev of course) — i have had some fun while keeping my capital and some :))

i had a good year with Xpel, Shop and CZO (ceapro) RH and TSLA which i just most sold out around $600. i bought a bunch facebook msft appl during the dip and they did well too. CSU also helped i’m thinking of exiting the market and buy real estate in vancouver. is that the same as selling tesla to buy air bnb ?? lol

happy new year to everyone - warmest wishes for a safe & healthy 2021 filled with love from friends & family.;) Gary

Billion with a b! Aside from poor covid response, Canada has been desirable to live for sure

we are all assuming vaccine solves everything i’m not convinced a new variant may be an unexpected event

The other thing that sets floor on price is cost of skilled construction labour which is about $400/sf So valuation of new home = land plus cost of construction will set the market for existing homes too

Thank you Viking Interesting perspective— I totally missed the supply side With all the money Justin is printing... I can’t see interest rate going up.... I’m tempted to take some money off stock market.... Gary

do people know why vancouver RE still going up with COVID foreigners are not coming!

have people been paying some attention to the defaults of state-owned enterprises in China? https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/27/china-braces-for-more-bond-defaults-among-state-firms-soes-in-2021.html

the most beautiful thing is TAX FREE for principal residence !

It is interesting Sweden's curve is flattening without doing much in terms of aggressive measures like other places.

I do believe having prior coronavirus exposure may have helped - explains why some are asymptomatic. from the limited biology / biochemistry i took, it's all about being able to establish that bond to infect. so if there are memory T cells that can neutralize the virus, even if not efficiently , but perhaps with low viral load that's enough. i am hoping herd immunity theory is right; but from everything i've read including studies done in China / Italy etc - they are no where near herd immunity. again, i am hoping i'm wrong!

I am more on the camp that the virus may have mutated to a weaker form and also the medical community is getting better at treating this. but i am no doctor. just my guess... this is also the summer time when respiratory illness tends to fade away. let’s see what the fall brings. whatever that cause - even if it’s herd immunity- i hope the worst is behind us.

all the stuff i read suggest herd immunity is long ways off. even in new york now. heard immunity needs 60% plus infected.

are people feeling that the virus is bad that market has gone crazy ?

the protests didn't help !

my limited knowledge is so it gets to the right altitude and synchronized speed.