gg
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Posts posted by gg
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@LongHaulsent you a private msg. I know a group down there that's looking currently
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Does anyone know of a crpyto brokerage where you can open accounts for minors? Not looking for the minors to have access and trade - looking for a custodial, where I can gift cash to a child and purchase crypto on their behalf with it
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Sadly the reality is that for someone in North America, BTC is just a sh1te investment.
Most cannot margin against it and at today's USD 15,400/BTC - you could buy a lot of materially better quality stock, which both pays a dividend AND is marginable. Bit different if you live somewhere where your fiat currency is devaluing monthly (South America, South Africa, etc), but even then it is NOT an investment - it is just a less risky alternative to holding wads of scarce USD notes.
I actually think that your logic is one of the reasons that US investors, to their detriment, will be later to the game than many others around the world. If you live in Argentina, Venezuela, South Africa, Iran, etc... then monetary debasement is not a philosophical issue, and you are probably certainly willing to take small positions in any assets that potentially have the ability to hedge that risk.
A young person would be far better off using the USD 15,400 to learn coding instead, and simply contracting out some of their weeknights/weekends to do coding. Pays way better than McDonalds; at USD 25/hr you only need code an average 25-30 hrs/month to make 50%+/yr on your investment. Not that big a big stretch.
On this point, there is nothing that says you need to buy 1 bitcoin at a minimum. You can buy very tiny fractions worth of one bitcoin. And I think while that's already been happening, the introduction of bitcoin purchases on highly mainstream financial companies like Paypal and Square will only make this more common place. So I would agree that if a young person only had 15,400 of dsicretionary spending this year, they'd be better off learning to code than they would be buying a bitcoin. But they might be best off spending 15,000 learning to code and buying 400 in bitcoin.
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A (very) small private company in which I am an investor, needs to figure out their Facebook ad strategy.
Can anyone point me to a marketing plan/whitepaper that incorporates Facebook, e.g. how to do run targeted ads in Facebook. As opposed to all the Social Media Marketing 101, build good content, how to write a blog, etc. I'm looking for Social Media Marketing 201, using Facebook effectively!)
Thanks,
What industry is the company in and what are they selling?
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Thank you! The issue was that arrow in the top right corner!
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Apologies if this has been discussed elsewhere already, but is anyone else's search function on COBF no longer showing up? At some point, the search box just seems to have disappeared from the page.
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Where was the mega Kroger? Was it under any specific branding indicating its a better than normal kroger?
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The economics are still to be determined, but I was surprised that BRK would touch Pilot after the criminal trouble the company ran into cheating customers of rebates. Haslam has not yet been charged, so likely won't, but the pleas ran to nearly the top of the corporate chain and with the summer plea bargains in exchange for cooperation, I had thought there may be more charges forthcoming. Maybe BRK has reason to believe the matter is concluded. In fact, maybe that's part of the timing of the deal.
I know that people want to believe that Warren and Charlie only invest in morally impeccable businesses, but between DVA, HCG, and this... Just like anyone else, a good deal is the overriding concern.
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When your mechanic and plumber start investing and touting the wonders of cryptocurrency, you should start to get concerned! Both have tried to arrange meetings with me recently on how amazing and hot Bitcoin is, as well as they want to introduce me to their Bitcoin guys.
Also, the fact that Patrick Byrne is now spending Overstock.com money on this, should also concern people!
Cryptocurrency is the future, but the winners will be few and far between, like how Amazon presently leads the internet wars with the dead carcasses of its competitors littering the street or barely surviving.
Cheers!
Agree 100% when these sort of people are getting excited about stocks or real estate, or other assets they can speculate on, which have a maximum intrinsic value... the one difference here is that bitcoin has positive network effects, so hysteria/speculation can actually end up increasing their intrinsic value
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There are lawyers that specialize in reducing your real estate tax. Typically work on commission based on savings. That is your best option-- don't have to deal with the bureaucracy, and they also already know all the people involved, so they're more successful.
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I know nothing about timeshares, and wasn't even aware that they're difficult to get out of, but I heard an ad on the radio today for thetimeshareexitattorneys.com which seems like a law firm dedicated to this issue (although they're advertising on the radio, so wouldn't be surprised if they were somewhat scammy too...)
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It hasn't moved? :o
....for $17.80 per share in preferred units of Steel Partners
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I would suggest that you contact a lawyer that specializes in reducing real estate taxes. I know some people that have used these services very successfully in the past
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Had a thought while reading this. Is the Tesla more like the iPod than the first IBM computer?
Tesla has taken existing tech and created a product. It's hard to answer the question "what's the most important part of a Tesla car?" If you were to break it down almost everything is a part any other car company can create. Maybe the software's unique. This was the same as the iPod. The iPod had no special glue making it better. What sets both apart is the experience. It's the marketing, branding, and the experience of owning one of these products.
Why did consumers buy iPods over Zunes? They both did the same thing. I think that's what people are asking about the Volt. If you look at specs the Volt is the same, so why aren't people lining up to buy the Volt? It's the disruption field thing. Jobs had it and Musk has it. They make you feel special for purchasing their product. People feel a certain way buying a Tesla. They might even pay more for that feeling. People did the same for iPods.
This is a really hard thing to capture from an investment perspective, but it's vital to marketing. If you have a charismatic leader who can create an emotional response to the product you will generate a lot of demand. Leaders like Musk are in short supply. Was Steve Jobs a huckster and hype machine? Yup, probably one of the best. I've read articles describing how carefully planned his demos needed to be so he didn't accidentally hit a feature that wasn't complete or didn't work right. When he unveiled the first iPhone he was mostly selling a dream, not a working product.
I think there's no question that if you are in the market for an electric car, there is no better option than a Tesla. Performance and design, of the Model S a least, are top notch. The people I know with Teslas absolutely have the feeling a 'certain way' that you describe, and it's a very interesting marketing effect that is more about the founder's charisma than it is about the actual quality of the product.
Regarding the iPod, though, I think itunes was one of the things pretty early on that got Apple's ecosystem going, and in my opinion, it was/is the ecosystem that was responsible for a lot of the customer stickiness. I wonder if Tesla has anything like that which might get its consumers to come back. In that class of vehicle, I would imagine that customers are typically upgrading on a 3 year cycle. I don't see any other viable luxury alternatives at the moment for those people to switch to in the next year or two, but longer term, if the known luxury brands have a very good alternative, I don't know if Musk's charisma will be enough to keep customers from switching to an excellent Mercedes electric vehicle...
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I'm putting together a due diligence request list for a purchase of an operating business. Anyone know of any resources or anything I can clone? Thanks
Assuming you will be using an attorney for the transactional work, they often have due diligence lists...although the lists can be somewhat industry-specific
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Shorting some investment-grade bonds in today's low-interest could have similar qualities to what you desire
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Any reasons to avoid doing so if managing a pooled investment vehicle (limited partnership)?
I think it's definitely worth considering if you are happy to be long a hard-to-borrow security.
Just thinking out loud, but if you are managing other people's money, one consideration is that if you are wrong, and the short thesis turns out to be correct, you may appear additionally foolish to your investors. Say you are long TSLA shares today, and you tell your investors that one of the reasons you are long is because there's a huge opportunity to lend out the shares and get double-digit returns on that investment solely from the securities lending...if TSLA plunges because the short-thesis gets validated by the market, then your investors might be more unhappy than if you had been involved in a security with fewer shorts involved.
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Meh, Einhorn gained 53% on a 9 year investment. Not exactly something to write home about.
You should compare it against what a short position in the S&P500 would have done in the same period.
Why? Last I checked, Einhorn reported his results based on absolute returns...an 8% return is an 8% return. Cheers!
Probably not worth over-analyzing (after all, I don't want to take anyone's attention away from the VRX thread), but I think this sort of high single digit positive return like this on a short position is better than just the equivalent in a long position in some ways, because he was essentially paid that rate to borrow the money. That's less about Einhorn and more about the economics of shorting...Obviously Einhorn was exposed to different (and likely much greater) risks than a traditional loan, but he gets to put the short proceeds into long ideas, thereby providing his portfolio with leverage, so you could also look at this as if he borrowed money for 9 years, and was paid 8% per year to hold it.
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Well, if the droughts and higher temperatures are a long-term change for California, then there is some almond farmland to be purchased elsewhere.
California grows 80% of the world's almonds and this is using up 10% of the state's water. Over the past 20 years, California's planted almond acreage has doubled.
The growth in the almond acreage can't continue at that pace -- there just isn't the water.
This means that if you purchase an almond farm in an area with a more secure water supply then you will benefit from the future increases in almond prices (with California's production growth limited by water, then the supply/demand shift will happen and prices will increase).
Hey Eric,
Do you have a source for that 10% of CA's water being used for Almond farming? Not doubting it, but had never heard that....if that's true, could be a seriously interesting way to bet on continued droughts
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What to do?
You share the name on a message board like this one => wait until enough readers agree with your analysis and buy up shares => you nominate a new slate for the Board, and end up getting elected
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More questions:
1. Are there any noteworthy mistakes in strategy or implementation that biglari has made in the last year?
2. What would you say to shareholders who view the positions in AirT and insignia like they were bought entirely out of spite and revenge to Groveland, as opposed to their investment potential?
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I would like to start a thread on questions for people to ask at the BH annual meeting. I will not be able to make it, but I think there are people on this board that will be there. I imagine we can all benefit from brainstorming some good questions for those in attendance to ask.
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE, do not make any subjective statements/comments on this thread. I would really like to keep this to brief replies, ideally from people who have a genuine interest in learning more about the company through good questions, as opposed to any commenting on the merits or demerits of BH's shares and management. If people that are going to the meeting could also potentially identify themselves, and let us know if they would be willing to ask some of the questions generated here, that could probably help incentivize others to think of good questions.
For starters, here's one:
QUESTION: I would like to know how Sardar thinks about BH's capital available to make private acquisitions. For a specific example, if Biglari had an opportunity to acquire a large private business, would BH ever sell CBRL stock (or other public holdings), send that cash back to the HoldCo to acquire a private company?
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Probably the only areas of Buffett's life that doesn't get the expected level of scrutiny....
-copious amounts of sexual references in his letters
-only works with attractive, female reporters
-had/has one of the oddest marriage arrangements I've ever heard of
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Because people move, die, get divorced, etc. the average amount of time an individual mortgage is outstanding is closer to 10 yrs I believe.
I suspect mortgages last longer when the general trend is rising rates and shorter when the trend is decreasing rates. In a rising rate environment people would not refinance as often.
Amen Brother! Negative convexity at work. Increasing duration when you don't want it (rates rising) and decreasing duration when you don't want it (rates falling).
I forget who said it but the no prepayment penalty fixed rate 30 yr mortgage "would not exist in nature". all the optionality is in the borrower's hands.
Another way to prepay is to default.
I agree. But even if the no prepayment penalty 30 year fixed rate mortgage has to exist because of government regulations, I always wondered why there wasn't an enormous difference in rates between the fixed rate products and the ARMs? You would think the market would set the rates in general and on average to make all types of mortgages an equally attractive deal to both the buyers and the sellers. It seems to me that the fixed rate mortgages are always cheap compared with the ARMs (unless you know for sure that you will have the mortgage less than 7-8 years), which leads me to think that some form of government regulation is also involved somewhere in skewing the rates in an unnatural direction to the consumers benefit.
One reason can also be that the ARMs aren't fully floating. From my experience, you still have an absolute cap, (like 500 BPS above the starting rate ) so it's really not as risky as some might initially think.
A friend who is an Experienced Hedge Fund CFO/Controller available for a finance role
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Anyone have @LongHaul's contact info?