Eye4Valu

The Treasury, taxpayers and shareholders of GSEs are aligned in their interests. We're in this together in terms of reform. I don't see this as us versus them.

As usual, Cherz, Merkhet and Luke 5:32 provide sensible and reasoned commentary, while the other comments come straight out of left field and are emotional nonsense. There is little chance of a receivership, and scotus is not the final opportunity to address this legally. In my view, the GSEs will be released from government control along the lines of the Moelis plan in due time. If you can't see that, then you can't see the wall or the writing on it.

"Throughout my tenure as Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), I hope it has not gone unnoticed that the things I have valued most (and have encouraged the FHFA staff to value) are transparency, communication, and collaboration. In every issue and challenge we have tackled (and none of them have been easy), my view has always been that the best way forward has been through honest and open dialogue and through constructive collaboration." Am I the only one who didn't notice any of that Mel?

My uncle is a partner in our firm and represented a client on a tax matter that was eventually granted cert. He made oral argument before scotus on the case. When he gets back in town I'll ask him his thoughts on the process and these petitions for writ. He is primarily a litigator, and is certainly not a stupid guy.

Don't forget about Sweeney and Court of Claims. It ain't over until it's over!

To put things in perspective, an attorney prepared petition for writ of cert. has a better chance than a non attorney prepared petition for writ of cert., bearing in mind that the majority of petitions are submitted by non attorneys. There is approx. 5% chance that cert. is granted for an attorney prepared petition, although I think the odds are greater than that in the Perry case. So, not great odds overall, but perhaps as good as can be expected.

Come on now, Mnuchin and Watt are calling the shots. They'll be forced to resolve this. Doesn't hurt to have Sweeney, SCOTUS, U.S. District Court/Apellate cases and Delaware as optionality. Trump card is they're hard to replace. Everything else is just hearsay. Word to your mother!

Fairholme conference call transcript is out. http://www.fairholmefundsinc.com/Documents/ConferenceCall20170629.pdf

I know a lot of members of this board are from Canada. What are your thoughts on this article from Gretchen Morgenson? IFRS in general? Do you trust the financial reporting on Canadian stocks? https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/07/business/warren-buffett-investing-canada.html?ref=business

Definitely a troll. Probably not the only one.

I know Tesla is just as cheap as the FANG stocks! Don't forget about Uber either! If only I had hung on to my AOL shares!

But they have to play with the trillion dollar cards they've been dealt. Odds favor the path of least resistance financially, which will pave the way for a political solution. At least that is what my fortune cookie said. :)

The opposite of Progress is Congress.

+1 It creates positive momentum to recap and release, which is a non-starter for Corker/Crapo.

Watt is a smart guy who probably always had a pair, but recently got reacquainted with them.

I think the common and preferred are BOTH worth the speculation based on the "no substitutes" thesis, Mnuchin and legal aside.

Couldn't access the site all day. Was trelling me it was a 504 error or something.

I agree with Christian, a.k.a. Rule of Law Guy, that other legal avenues remain. I have always thought the U.S. Court of Claims was the most important legal avenue, even before Perry. Others liked the chances in Perry, but probably hoped for a quick payoff more than anything. Let's see what Mnuchin and Sweeney do. Hindes/Jacobs and Collins could certainly be helpful. It's always darkest before dawn.

Looking for the political cover they would need?

Better Calabria than Sperling or Parrot I would think.

A Circuit Split would create a high probability of SCOTUS granting certiorari on APA claims. Case now before the Sixth Circuit. Cases to eventually come before the Fifth, Seventh and Eighth Circuits. Just need one of those Circuits to find Judge Brown's dissent persuasive. SCOTUS review not entirely out of the realm of reason.

People who lack conviction will get shaken out of any investment or speculation, whether the odds are good or bad. I always wondered why this board placed so much weight on the Perry appeal? I have a lot of conviction a favorable judgment will be obtained in Ct. of Claims. To quote Darth Vader, "I find your lack of faith disturbing."

I am a lawyer and always thought the proper venue/jurisdiction, together with the best odds, was in the Court of Federal Claims. If Mnuchin settles with Plaintiffs in a favorable manner, that's great. If he doesn't, I believe a favorable judgment will be obtained from Sweeney. She has already indicated that she doesn't let the U.S. steamroll over contractual rights. I also agree with Merkhet that the Perry decision wasn't entirely adverse to the preferreds, and is being glossed over by the media and this thread. My cost basis in FNMAS is 4.25, so I'm neither selling nor adding to my position here. I am not disheartened by the Perry decision and didn't expect Mnuchin to show all his cards this morning. I also think there is a decent chance SCOTUS would grant certiorari on Perry, and have no doubt that a petition for writ of certiorari will be forthcoming from the Plaintiffs.

I think there is a decent chance SCOTUS would grant certiorari on Perry. So i guess I disagree with the consensus on that. I also think the takings case is strong in Ct. of Fed. Claims. Sweeney has taken a long time, but has also been instrumental in moving the Plaintiff's case along. I seriously doubt Fairholme is going to take its foot off the gas. With regard to the preferred, a liquidation preference is a liquidation preference. I don't think Mnuchin can tread all over the preferred by offering something far lower than the liquidation preference they are contractually entitled to. I'm not sure he would anyway. There have been many setbacks and positive surprises in this enduring saga. I expect that to continue. Staying long my 20,000 shares of FNMAS.

Be prepared for a lengthy article from Epstein.