valueinvestingideas

Prem has been beating the drum for years on the disconnect "between the markets and the economic fundamentals". How does the election of trump warrant a 180-degree flip in strategy? Reads like a complete capitulation to me as the market hits record highs.

+1

+1.

Thanks for the thread Nelson. How did you start relationships with mortgage brokers? What amount of capital did you need to get started and taken seriously? what are the overhead costs in terms of paperwork, legal, etc

Would be interested to hear more about your business, if you don't mind sharing. Where do you find clients etc?

I would use FCF over OCF as its important not to forget capex. A measure like EV/EBIT or EPS provides a more normalized figure that can sometimes be more useful for valuation. 1 year of FCF can be misleading, for some companies, due to abnormal working cap, capex etc.

my notes on BIF: $700mm closed end fund trading at a 24% discount to NAV. Portfolio is 25% BRK and various other blue-chip stocks including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Yum Brands, and Chevron. Pays a 5.7% monthly dividend. ~1.7% management fee. Trades at a wide discount for what may in fact be a good reason – BIF is ran by Stewart Horejsi (Boulder Investment Advisors) and he owns roughly ~40% of the shares, which creates a serious issue of conflicted interest. Mr. Horejsi can repeatedly buy more of his fund at a 24% discount, doesn’t have to pay the management fee and for the assets he doesnt own – he collects a steady management fee. In a sense, this is a great investment vehicle to build wealth… for… wait for it… Mr. Horejsi. He can easily close the discount himself through buybacks or a liquidation, if he ever chose to sell however he has zero incentive to do so. An activist is unlikely to succeed given Mr. Horejsi’s massive ownership stake. Conclusion: The current discount to NAV is a bit larger than it has historically been, and may narrow slightly. However, in all likelihood, some discount to NAV is likely to persist for years. At a 20% discount to NAV, current fair value is ~$8.00. At the current price, I’m not that interested. I would revist if the discount widened further to 30-40%. As a side note, the dividend is partially self-liquidating – and should, hypothetically, cause the discount to NAV to slowly decrease however shares are likely to just trade down upon distributions.

Looks like he took down his blog? http://www.bruceberkowitz.net/ no longer loads for me atleast

great read. Great answer below, couldn't write it any better.

Check out HCHC. Decent writeup at VIC http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Idea/ViewIdea/124751

www.spinoffmonitor.com is a great resource for finding spinoffs and other spec sits (reorg,restructurings,etc)