loganc
-
Posts
314 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by loganc
-
-
Interesting topic, even if this article is a bit simplistic.
-
I think I'm just the opposite of you, bmi haha. I was a pretty hardcore bull up until this year or so. I think it could last a bit longer but I've been slowly paring down my equity exposure. Burry and Watsa both looked like they were crazy until they didn't. I've made an assumption (we'll see if it plays out) that Hussman and Klarman (I follow Klarman more closely) would be right, but that they would be wrong for a while. I think they'll be proven right eventually. I've started to position my portfolio to reflect that.
Bearish camp: Watsa, Burry (at least that's what I gathered based on lower prices (and older interviews), Klarman and, now I think even Buffett and Dalio are getting somewhat concerned. Perhaps all of these guys are wrong, but hey, it's good company to be in!
I'm not aware of any elite investors in the bullish camp. Tepper and Cooperman, maybe?
Most of my conservative positioning is in retirement accounts where I can't buy individual stocks.
What are you referring to with respect to the Buffett comment? I can only recall him sticking to the "zone of fair value" type comment with respect to general stock market valuation.
-
This inspired me to check out a few old interviews. Here is one easily available:
There are some old Charlie Rose interviews that are great, as I recall from the crisis, but I can't find a link.
-
Awesome. Thanks for posting.
-
Burry was paid $1 a word to write for MSN money. I think it is useful to read his thought process for his actual trades. He didn't calculate ratios like EV/EBITDA or do writeup like in VIC.
see attached.
Thanks for posting. I haven't seen this compilation of the MSN articles.
-
A couple more blog posts about Michael Burry that I found interesting:
- Reading Michael Burry: http://robertpiomolloy.com/blog/?p=94
- Michael Burry’s Value Investors Club Ideas Revealed: http://robertpiomolloy.com/blog/?p=130
The second one is very interesting, as it does seem that michael99 on VIC was indeed Michael Burry. Going through those VIC ideas and reading his reasoning, especially in the comments is pretty interesting. More interesting is that It looks like that most of his VIC ideas didn't work out, except for Industrias Bachoco and GTSI. I may be wrong, as most of them were either bought out, or were otherwise liquidated since then. Pillowtex idea is probably the most interesting, as it imploded almost immediately after posting, and subsequent comments are a good read.
The blogs are defunct. Anyone saved a copy?
Might be able to find it on Archive.org. F.ex, here's a snapshot from 2010:
https://web.archive.org/web/20101202022255/http://robertpiomolloy.com/blog/
Great stuff. Thanks for posting.
-
CPI Contracts:
What matters is only the asymmetrical bet. Nothing else. Macro, micro, bla, bla, bla… If you find a coin and you get the chance to gain 10 if heads comes out or lose 1 if tails comes out, will you flip it?
Nothing else to say.
I like the analogy. However, as regard the CPI contracts, how do you know you are flipping a "fair coin" or even a "coin" that provides "10:1"? Is anyone smart enough to be able to determine the probabilistic attributes of a "coin" representing inflation?
-
I believe that Hempton is correct in terms of making a bet on high broadband utilization. However, it seems to me that the more sensible vehicle to effect such a bet is in cable rather than telecom. Hempton would be well serviced by listening to Malone, in my opinion. When I look at telcos, I see enormous capex that doesn't stop. Looking at cable, it seems like high bandwidth is available with minimal capex.
-
Thanks for posting. I love these old reports.
-
Can anyone help me understand what is going on with the Borrowings/Payments on long-term debt, etc. lines in the cash flow statement? I haven't been able to locate any notes in the filings to help me understand why there are such large numbers here. I am sorry if this has been explained elsewhere on the board.
Thanks.
-
@thefatbaboon I have no sources in terms of the litigation. I have some contacts in terms of individuals that have sold a kidney care company to Fresenius but have not gotten any information, to date, from these sources about that line of business. Upon further reflection and reading, I am pretty comfortable with the DVA dialysis business. On the other hand, while I see an enormous growth opportunity, I do not understand the HCP business.
@twacowfca Would you be willing to provide some thoughts in terms of how you think about the competitive dynamics and growth prospects of HCP? I still have much to do in terms of understanding this business but you seem to have a strong handle on DVA and your thoughts would likely expedite my efforts.
Ultimately, it seems like DVA is quite cheap. Even if one assumes that HCP is sold at a meaningful discount to the purchase price, it seems that the dialysis business is still undervalued. While I said that I cannot see a BRK bid for the company, ultimately, it depends on the price.
-
nice, i share your sentiments. i am trying to build a position, now it just makes it harder.
i honestly am not sure if brk won't take it out even at a higher price. they have bought it at a higher price. (assming brk wants to take it out)
hy
damn it, in the middle of building a position
We lucked out on this development. Put our spare cash into it a couple of weeks ago, adding to our large position, after Weschler bought a significant amount for his children, and we actually went into margin in anticipation of receiving the LRE dividend next month, something we almost never do. It's now our second largest holding.
I've got mixed feelings about the bump up in price, though. The lower the price, the more likely a BRK take out. In a way, I'm a little disappointed because DaVita will likely now keep pace with the market leaders, making a takeout increasingly unlikely as the gap between IV and MV narrows.
Yeah, I think they would offer north of $75/SH, perhaps north of $80/SH , allowing for this not entirely unexpected development, but their offer has to be significantly more than the market price or shareholders will squawk about getting a bum deal. That's the downside of a rising price. There could be worse problems, however. :)
I am doing research on DVA and I don't see a BRK deal as anything close to a remote possibility. The ongoing and potential legal issues with this company are so messy that I can't see Buffett wanting to pull this one into his "permanent collection." This isn't to say that I think DVA is a bad investment. While I have a lot of work to do, I think DVA is a very interesting company but I would not in any way count on a BRK bid to give me an exit.
Blue Chip Stamps letters
in General Discussion
Posted
This is awesome! Thanks so much for sharing.