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value-is-what-you-get

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Posts posted by value-is-what-you-get

    FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    That's interesting, valuecfa.

     

    My guess is that a response from the government will provide both (a) more information and (b) a better entry price. Therefore, I'm waiting to see what they have to say.

     

    While I believe that the preferred shareholders will win in the end, it's likely that the government will put up, at the very least, a superficially appealing argument for their action. That could cause the Johnny-come-lately buyers to depart for calmer seas.

     

    Very sensible, and likely to occur.

    Suggestions for Toronto?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    The CN tower is a must do.  Also for kids, Center Island has a lot of fun stuff.  You take a ferry from right downtown lakefront over. About 15 min. total.  I like the King Edward hotel.  It s one of those things that s pricey but worth it.  Outstanding service.  or if you really want to save some dough take them on a subway ride east on the bloor line from yonge.  Get in the front car and when you get a few.stops in you go across a high bridge across the don valley.  Fun for the kids!  At least it was when I was a kid.  Center island is probably your best bet with small chldren.  Oh, and thanks for those tourist dollars!

    Tesla Model S Named Automobile's "Car of the Year"

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Also with those electric rates a variable speed pump will make a huge difference in your electric bill. They pay for themselves quickly.

     

    Now this is a pool forum. =)

     

    We use a variable speed on our pool.  For proper circulation to run salt chlorine generator, skimmers etc. It consumes 400-450 watts and runs 24-7.  (regular pool pump uses 1,000 -1,500 watts)  The math shows a payback of 2.75 seasons (that s a 5 month season in Ontario) of use.  Then the pump is free amd the savings are profit.  The free options you get with these is pump will last a lot longer at lower operating speeds, savings/profits increase as rates increase and they have some good built in safety features.  They re a no brainer.

    Speculative/Small Cap Stocks

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Earlier in my investing career I went through the biotech wringer with LOR.  What I took away from it all was it's too difficult for me, often too difficult for the very people involved, and when the 1 in 1000 does come along, I don't have to own it to benefit from it as there is now one more drug that may save/improve my life someday.

     

    Similar to Lululemon.  Have never owned it but do receive daily dividends from their products.  ;D

    Put option question

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Does anyone know from experience or otherwise what would happen if one were to sell put options on a company which was subsequently sold.  I expect it would depend on how the sale were paid for etc.

     

    For example, if I sell puts on Sandridge and the company is sold before my position expires, I get paid a time premium for time not given, depending of course on what becomes of those options after the sale.

     

     

    FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    “The tough work is over,” Berkowitz said. “I don’t understand the politics involved but it seems obvious to me what needs to take place.”

     

    Despite the tremendous, self-interested investor support for the dividend’s restoration, legislators seem unlikely to grant Wall Street’s wishes. Changing the current arrangement at Fannie and Freddie has been non-starter in Washington, and a bipartisan group of senators is working on a bill to replace the two companies, leaving no room for private shareholders. ""

     

    mmm … nothing new here.

     

    I think Kyle Bass stated that the house never agrees on anything except now they both want Fannie and Freddie gone.  So what do you think might happen?  It sounds like a much more realistic synopsis of the politics surrounding this than Berkowitz just shrugging it off.  I m big time leery of this one working out for any shareholders except the hourly traders.

    U.S. Oil Stockpile Highest Since 1931

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    That is a very entertaining article!

     

    The reality is quite different. 

     

    Measured against US consumption at the time, it is 6 month domestic supply - a very nice cushion.

    Measured against US consumption today, it is a 20 day supply - basically paycheck to paycheck.

     

    Measured against global consumption at the time,  it is a 73 day global supply equivalent.

    Measured against global consumption today, is is just under a 5 day supply.

     

    In 1931, one could poke a hole in the ground in Texas and run from the gushers.

    Today we are basically wringing out the sponge at the bottom of the empty bucket with shale extraction.

     

    The article is idiotic in it's assumptions.

     

    We will never run out of oil, but we've run out of cheap oil.

     

    EDIT:  Forgot to add the punchline . . . and the price of oil doubled from 1931-1935 despite the stockpile, great depression etc.

    "Why Buy and Hold is an Inferior Strategy"

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    It looks like we are talking about two different things here.  Buy and hold as outlined in the video is inferior to market timing because they are essentially wagering on price changes.  Betting slips, not partial ownership in quality companies. 

     

    I do not see what is wrong with receiving an annual dividend (highly likely to increase) of 30+% on a split-adjusted cost basis on a stock which is worth 12 times what you paid for it.  Due to the moat of the business this trend is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

     

    It was one of Berkowitz's points about BAC at $7 or so - holding it over time is likely to produce a double digit dividend income in perpetuity when buying at that price - price appreciation is a bonus.

     

     

     

    Ambassador Bridge

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    Factoids:  16% of US trade is with Canada.  That's more than China does with US. It's also more than Japan, Germany and UK combined do with the US.

     

    One quarter of that trade travels across the Ambassador Bridge.  The bridge is 83 years old and the documentary on it's construction was a silent film!

    Hamblin Watsa wrong with their thesis?

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    As Prem might say, it appears to still be "early days" with this trade.

     

    Sure the U.S. has picked up, but look at any industrial company in Europe and sales and order backlogs are doing a cliff dive. Plus who knows what Asia looks like as China cools. I think it is Time to review some photos of Ordos, China.

     

    http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1975397_2094502,00.html

     

    The photos of Ordos are dramatic, by our standards, but keep in mind that the estimates are that urbanization increase over the next 15 years will be 300 million people.  That's about 12 Manhattans a year, 1 Manhattan every month for the next 15 years.  Approximately 1 America.  Now that's dramatic!

    I Worry About "The Shot Heard Around The World"

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Market Cap vs GDP

     

    What does market cap have to do with GDP?

    What if public companies buy up private enterprises at an increasing rate.  Then market cap should increase relative to GDP because a former stream of GDP has now been "market capped".  Definitely too inaccurate to peg a ratio too and I believe we've already covered smooth graphs going out decades in another thread.

    Tesla Model S Named Automobile's "Car of the Year"

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    the average Jane will not want to pay a premium for electric.

    Actually there is no premium.

     

    This car may be 10-20K$ more expensive than the comparable BMW, but you are paying 5-10 times less for fuel (electricity vs gasoline). So do the math :)

     

    Yes this is the point I was trying to make.  The naysayers are saying this about average Jane.  I agree completely with your statement.

    Tesla Model S Named Automobile's "Car of the Year"

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Looks like the naysayers may be proven wrong here.  Now the negative line is oh sure once all the luxury buyers (ERIC et al) have got their Tesla's then sales will dry up - the average Jane will not want to pay a premium for electric.  In my opinion the average Joe who lives anywhere near the free gas provided by solar city will jump at the chance to finance his fuel payments via a slightly higher priced electric.  No fuel price volatility!  and let's not forget the cool factor - envy makes the world go round!

     

    Someone Teach Me To Be Fu*king Greedy!

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Yeah- like Seth Klarman says in investing it's a game of choosing your remorse.

     

    When you get killed you bought too much, when you knock one out you bought too little.

     

    Look at it in perspective Sanjeev - you moved the needle of your fund significantly in a few days with absolutely minimal (1.5%) risk.  Good on you!

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