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CorpRaider

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    Bonds!

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by CorpRaider

    1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

    Think we ve had this subject come up before, but using one flimsy, kind of subjectively picked argument based on a timeline of “in 2022” doesn’t even remotely cover “how stocks do with inflation”. Inflation started summer/fall 2020(hence how we starting printing it on the CPI in Q2 2021) and there’s still modest albeit abating inflation. Saying “in 2022 they couldn’t raise prices fast enough to counter inflation” completely ignores the multi year runway they get for raising prices following it. Or the huge demand and profit boost most got from the wave of inflation producing demand. Especially when most inputs were supply chain. Fritos aren’t 150% more expensive to produce than they were in 2019. But the price hikes stay. 
     

    And then also “the returns aren’t positive in real terms”…why cherry pick the absolute peak? 
     

    It should be very obvious stocks are dynamic, flexible to environment because they have actual operators managing them, and have more than held their own through the 2020-2024 inflation period. They’re also tax efficient. Flipping through CDs and short term crap isn’t. The obviousness of the advantage is even more evident by the fact that we have to contain the counter argument to “if we take the date the index hit its exact top and then stop counting at the bottom, it’s clear stocks do poorly with inflation”…frankly I don’t think it’s really productive to force oneself to draw conclusions based on just 12 months, but nevertheless nowadays we seeing people doing it for mere days, weeks and months. That’s not “in an inflationary environment” and it’s not “evidence” really of anything other than a bunch of monkeys playing hot potato based on headlines.

    I agree with this and think you could look at other examples in history to support this assertion.

    Bonds!

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by CorpRaider

    I just decided to apply a moving average price rule to my intermediate term treasury allocation, across relevant tax advantaged accounts, whenever the term premium (or whatever the proper name for the spread over bills is) is in the bottom 50% of historical observations, (i.e., when duration risk is historically expensive).  So, I sold down my bonds.  You guys will probably be right.

    Charlie’s board seat

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted · Edited by CorpRaider

    On 3/13/2024 at 6:03 PM, gfp said:

    I don't think Berkshire needs to fill Charlie's board seat since he was not an independent director and Berkshire already had two additional "vice chairmen" (a role that is also not required).  But this article got me thinking that Don Graham would probably be a trusted addition by Warren and Berkshire's business with Graham Holdings is concluded as far as I know.  Bonus points that Graham is not a fund manager, as the BRK board is a bit heavy on that particular profession.

     

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/warren-buffett-minds-the-gaap-berkshire-hathaway-annual-report-earnings-4f6aa571

    Thanks for pointing that out.  

    Great podcast episode recommendation thread

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by CorpRaider

    Lately, I've been binging this podcast called Special Situation Investing.  They run a substack too (the pod is mostly reading the posts from the substack).

     

    Nice little short weekly stock pitches and some asides about FI and wealth building etc from what sounds like two hobbyist/financially independent men.  Sounds like they are attempting to emulate the structure of the portfolio of buffett partnerships a bit (i.e., the workouts, generals, and so forth.  They discussed a few spins that were somewhat interesting. 

     

    I haven't really liked anything they've looked at yet, but have enjoyed listening.  They talk a lot about Bitcoin, doomberg, the real vision blokes, pabrai, and the horizon kinetics guys so I would take them more than a pinch of salt. 

     

    I like to imagine they are father and son and wonder if my children and I can similarly share this investing activity one day; maybe that's why I like it. haha.

     

    Spotify has loads of audio books now included with memberships, so that's been great, but I feel I have to focus in more on those than pods.

     

    Also that Knowledge project guy had Chris Davis on recently for a 2+ hour talk that was great.  Lots of repeat stuff but also some new.  Includes a little discussion of serving on boards including Berk, GHC, and KO.  A few new details (to me) about his famiglia.

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by CorpRaider

    3 hours ago, formthirteen said:

     

    I couldn't find the short pitch on CABO, but I read the short pitch on CHTR and agree with basically everything. The cable debt cowboys are empire builders at any cost. They got away with bankruptcy once already. I will sell CHTR soon, latest when the position is 10% underwater. The decline in share price seems unavoidable.

    I stick Paul Allen with the prior one, but it's not like he didn't have some other good outcomes...R.I.P.  Yeah, I should probably just stick with Comcast, but I'll probably get some liberty if and when they take out Altice and the stock gets smashed.  I mentally filed that prior short piece as buy it at $200. haha

     

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by CorpRaider

    17 hours ago, formthirteen said:

    More CHTR and CABO. What could go wrong? Checks own notes on CABO from March, 2023: ”Operating margins ~30%, gross margins ~70%. Don’t buy this piece of s**t again.”

     

     

      Hide contents

    CHTR 2009: https://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/28/business/28charter.html

    The cable company, which is based in St. Louis, said it sought bankruptcy protection primarily because of the debt it had accrued over years of expansions and acquisitions, not any deeper operational issues. By reaching an agreement with a majority of its bondholders, including the private investment firms Apollo Global Management, Franklin Capital and Oaktree Capital Management, the company plans to shave off about $8 billion in debt.

    With the continuing credit crunch, companies are finding it harder to obtain the financing needed to sustain a long and expensive bankruptcy case. By striking an accord with some creditors beforehand, these debtors have a higher probability of surviving and reorganizing. Charter hopes to exit bankruptcy protection by the end of the summer.

     

     
      Hide contents

    CABO' s Altman Z-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
    Min: 1.22   Med: 2.95   Max: 3.84
    Current: 1.22

     

     
      Hide contents

    CHTR' s Altman Z-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
    Min: 0.52   Med: 0.77   Max: 1.09
    Current: 0.63

     

     

    Haha.  I have been tempted lately and I owned Charter back before it went bankrupt.  Did you see the "potential downside between 90% - 100%" VIC short pitch on $CABO?  Kind of harsh.

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by CorpRaider

    14 hours ago, dwy000 said:

    that's 2 days in a row.  You must have quite the position at this point.

     

    Nah, I'm a retail piker, but I am thinking of running it up to like 10% of my modest TNW.  Although, I wouldn't be shocked if they make a bid for someone and the stock craters right after I fill up.  

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