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Otsog

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  1. Otsog and warrior... I have some accounting questions.

     

    I'm shorting Avid, which is currently deliquent in its financial filings.  The company stated yesterday that it is likely that the stock will be delisted from NASDAQ (and move to OTC/Pink).  Here's what I don't understand about the accounting:

    1- They fired their auditor (Ernst and Young) and are replacing them with Deloitte.  Will this impact the length of time that it takes for the audit to get done?  I assume yes.  So it seems to me that this move will delay Avid's ability to file audited financial statements.

    2- Avid paid $4,069k in audit fees for YE2011.  Audit fees represent 1.6% of Avid's current $322M market cap.  Autodesk and Adobe paid similar audit fees, but their market caps are >34X Avid's.

     

    I never audited companies this large so take this with a grain of salt. 

    1. It will certainly be more work for a new firm, but it won't necessarily take more time.  Usually you can increase resources (staff) on an audit to get through it quicker.

    2. It probably would be a similar picture, but I'd use something else to compare audit fees in an industry (% or revenue, net income or assets).  More work = more fees, more audit work could be from changes in the nature in the business, high M&A activity, restatements, overly complex corporate structuring or increased scrutiny required because of poor internal controls. 

     

    Taking 1+2 together makes it really stink though.  I bet there was some major disagreement over accounting treatment between management and E&Y.  I don't think there is really any significant difference between any of the Big 4 firms.  If E&Y disagrees with you, so will PWC, D&T and KPMG.

  2. .5 years public housing in a remote Arctic village

     

    Now you have my interest piqued!  What sort of public housing is up in the Arctic?  Is this something where you own a property and the government subsidizes the rent for the inhabitant?  What types of challenges do you have up there?

     

    Maybe to the Canadians the Arctic isn't anything special, for me at least I think of it as probably one of the most forbidding places on Earth.

     

    Almost all of the Public Housing is owned by the government.  A few units are leased to the government from a private owner and then sub-leased to a public housing tenant.  Public Housing makes over 80% of the housing in the community I am in and I think that is similar across the entire territory (Nunavut). 

     

    The biggest challenges are:

    - Uneducated, unskilled and unmotivated labour

    - Extremely high material costs (we get 1 ship a year, everything else has to be flown in, there are no roads)

    - Unit wear and tear due to extreme weather conditions, uneducated tenants, extreme overcrowding

     

    The Arctic is most certainly forbidding.  It is a bit surreal living here, it feels like you are on the edge of the world and if your not careful *poof* you're gone.  The sun was supposed to come back today for the first time in a month but it was cloudy for the 21 minutes it was up.  Hopefully I will see it tomorrow  :)

  3. Sorry, not a fund, but one of the studies Greenblatt mentioned in his fundamental/value-indexing book.

     

    http://www.researchaffiliates.com/Our%20Ideas/Insights/Papers/Documents/FAJ_Mar_Apr_2005_Fundamental_Indexation.pdf

     

    The Fundamental indexes exhibit volatility and beta similar to those of the cap-weighted Reference portfolio and the S&P 500, except for the dividend-weighted index, which, as might be expected, had significantly lower return volatility and CAPM beta. The dividend-weighted index is dominated by mature companies with less risk and lower perceived growth prospects than the whole group of companies.  Even so, perhaps surprisingly, it out-paced the higher-risk conventional cap-weighted indexes in returns.

     

    http://i.imgur.com/JDtd59J.jpg

  4. There are massive Goodwill and Trade Name impairments in recent years (~240 mill since YE 09).  Normalized EBITDA is far different from EBITDA which I think is the cause of the wacky EBITDA valuations.  I didn't look into the cause of the impairments, but that is probably something to check out.

     

     

    We used their adjusted EBITDA numbers for our comments above.  Also, FCF was leniently calculated with EBITDA - Capex (or depreciation).  Using OCF - capex/depreciation we would arrive at ~$15M for FCF resulting in an EV/FCF multiple over 150X.

     

    D'oh! Sorry I missed that  :-[

  5. There are massive Goodwill and Trade Name impairments in recent years (~240 mill since YE 09).  Normalized EBITDA is far different from EBITDA which I think is the cause of the wacky EBITDA valuations.  I didn't look into the cause of the impairments, but that is probably something to check out.

  6. At first I was thinking either small retailer with all 60 stores in a smallish geographic region or a boutique services firm. 

     

    Lowest EBITDA is 8% but they've had negative operating income which means depreciation and amortization is a minimum 0.08 on a dollar of sales and capitalized assets last ~12.5 years (assuming no non-operating losses).  This doesn't work with small geographic retailer or boutique services as the depreciation and amortization should be way lower for either of those.  Maybe a specialized product manufacturer that produces goods to spec?  Can't outsource production due to quality/timing concerns with the specialization of the product required. 

     

    Complete shot in the dark, maybe an orthotics or prosthetics manufacturer?

     

    Regardless, if required capital investments is going to continually crush the operating income to negative or near 0 from an 8-12% EBITDA I would value the company at 0. 

     

    Now I am also preparing to be embarrassed  :-[

  7. I don't get the big deal.  I remember participation trophies in soccer as a kid and participation ribbons in cross country.  The competitive kids like me who tried to win didn't care about the participation trophies, only the big trophies mattered. The terrible kids who were probably forced there by their parents got something at least /shrug.

     

    When children make mistakes, our job should not be to spin those losses into decorated victories.

     

    Participation trophies are not decorated victories, they are scarlet letters of mediocrity, that's what 8 year old me took away from it anyway. 

     

     

    Not keeping score is a completely different issue though.  I would never sign my kids up for that crap.

  8. A western pipeline in Canada is far from a sure thing.  There are people who have been working for nearly a decade on pretty much just the opposition of Northern Gateway.  The First Nations are organized and strongly opposed. The BC public is remarkably strongly opposed.  The BC politicians are remarkably strongly opposed.  Christy Clark can read a poll.

     

    It is almost certainly going to federal court either way.  If it does end up being built BC will be kicking and screaming the entire way.  I wouldn't be surprised if Enbridge's ham fisted efforts to get a pipeline built here will materially affect other attempts at major industrial projects in BC.

  9. Great article, thanks for sharing.

     

    I really liked this comment too:

     

    I know quite a few dumb smart people – those who are extremely intelligent but not very adept socially. I read an article once that discussed qualities that made people good co-workers and one of the most valued traits was being agreeable. I am married to an engineer and our social circle is chock full of them. “Agreeable” doesn’t really describe any of them. While most are wonderful to have around if you need facts and knowledge, they certainly aren’t people that make others feel good about being in a relationship with them. They tend to argue very readily, in fact, usually, and when they hear something they don’t believe to be true, they passionately and rather rudely attack the point, which is seemingly much more important than the speaker’s feelings. I marvel at how any of them manage to have intimate relationships, much less marriages.

     

    I would go so far as to say that I think there should be a class in high school about relationships, how to get along with others. I would make Deborah Tannen’s books about communication required reading.

     

    I heard a DJ talking about being the “Actually Person.” He said when people are talking, he’s the to interject, “Actually, …..” Actually the avocado is a fruit. Actually, there is no such word as irregardless, it’s just regardless. Actually, I don’t get laid much, thank you. I added the examples but my point is, no one really likes the Actually Person, except maybe other Actually People. Those people who instinctively know or have somehow learned that getting along with others is “actually” more important than correcting them at every opportunity are the successful ones.

     

    * I am a closet “Actually Person.” I read that article and decided to keep corrections to myself unless they pertain to my job/are crucial, then I find a really nice way to offer the information.

     

    I was an 'actually person' until I read 'How to win friends and influence people'.  I think that book is a great starting point for people looking to attain the soft skills mentioned in the post.

  10. Love pretty much all of Clooney's work and love that there are artists who put their heart and souls into their work without caring about the $$$.

     

    But, he sounds like a freshman film major throughout the whole article.  Which is weird since he's been around long enough to know how the business works.  Transformers 8: CGI crapfest is going to gross 100x more than intellectual indie drama quirkfest.  Putting the degradation of the artistic merit of Hollywood at Loeb's doorstep seems both premature and a few decades too late.

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