Otsog
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Posts posted by Otsog
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Hey all,
I’m trying to remember and find the source for a quote I only remember the rough jist of. I’m pretty sure it was Buffett or Munger, but it may have been someone else completely.
the quote paraphrased was:
”there is no reason to work with people who are constantly pessimistic / it will not be enjoyable etc / except for your accountant, heed the pessimism of your accountant”
ring any bells?
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Honestly, I thought it was intentionally cheesy or sarcastic.
The graph bars are going up significantly each year. But a 4 year sample is a pretty short time frame for value investors and we are typically more accepting of volatility.
The plane is flying around the world. But, that seems to be the antithesis of the frugal, under the radar, sound judgement style of most value investors. Unless that is a dig at Buffett's 'The Indefensible'.
What about a cartoon of Buffett and Prem picking up cigar butts off the street?
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Why not laddered short term canadian bonds spread between now and 2 years?
BeerBaron
By laddered do you mean just buying a bit of all the ones posted, or is that a different product?
If you could get better GIC rates from big 5 better than Gov't Canada bonds you may as well go for it in excess of CDIC limits. Believe me, if one of the big 5 goes tits up you'll have much bigger problems than a haircut on your 10 mil.
The problem is whether you can get the GICs. They're basically a retail product and don't take in 10 mil deposits.
Ya, I looked at the posted GIC rates at a couple of bank sites, they are pretty awful from what I found. I think your right re: CDIC not being a major concern.
Safe to assume that your company doesn't have a line of credit that it could pay down? Or are you forced to segregate the funds?
Less than $2 mill LTD at 2.7%. The plan is to segregate the funds as any repayable amount will have to be repaid with actual interest earned.
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Followup, if we decide to go with AAA Canada bonds like the below, how many different bonds should the $10 million be spread over?
http://i.imgur.com/nViOv0Q.png
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Hi all,
The organization I work with recently received ~$10 million. A portion of the funds may have to be returned depending on the outcome of a court case. The timeline of the resolution of the case is not known, but could be anywhere from months to 2+ years.
I'm looking for advice on our investment options or any other issues I should take into account. I'm assuming based on the amount, CDIC limits mean our best option would be AAA Government Bonds?
TIA,
OTSOG
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If you can't make the difference between 3 children (Trump's oldest obviously) who are motivated, managing billion dollar businesses, well spoken, want to do well for themselves and others, are having successful families and Buffett's 3 children who have divorced, don't seem to share at all the motivation of their father to be successful, seem lost in life, then I don't know what to say.
I firmly believe that Buffett having seen how he failed as a father motivated him to preach for that give away of 50% of your wealth and be so opposed to generational transfer of wealth.
Cardboard
Buffett's kids have always seemed like well rounded people. Very philanthropic minded, published author, Emmy Award winner. Real winners.
Trump's kids all work at the family business. Sad. Very low energy.
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If legacy is partly attributed to how your children have developed then Trump wins hands down.
Cardboard
Is this a joke about Baron's cyber skills?
I saw Don Jr in an interview saying if Sr won they would use a blind trust that Jr, Eric and Ivanka would run. The interviewer said that's not a blind trust, obviously. Jr insisted it would be because they wouldn't talk to their Dad about it ??? These kids don't seem too bright.
Found it:
Stephanopoulos then noted that both Bushes who served as president, along with Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan and 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney, all put their assets in a blind trust during the campaign, adding, "your father hasn't done that.""He will certainly do it if he becomes president," Trump Jr. said, to which Stephanopoulos responded, "A blind trust, it's not a blind trust if it's being run by his children."
Once again, Trump Jr. disputed the characterization.
"It is because he'll have nothing to do with it, George. He’s said that. He wants nothing to do with it. He wants to fix this country. He wants get the country on the right track again," Trump Jr. remarked, agreeing with the notion that Stephanopoulos proposed a "wall between you and your siblings and your father."
Stephanopoulos pressed, "He's still going to know what the businesses are, where they are."
"We're not going to discuss those things. We're just not—it doesn't matter. Trust me. As you know, it's a very full-time job. He doesn't need to worry about the business," Trump Jr. said. "The business is in good hands. He trusts us with that, 100 percent."
Bolded for emphasis.
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A commutation of sentence reduces a sentence, either totally or partially, that is then being served, but it does not change the fact of conviction, imply innocence, or remove civil disabilities that apply to the convicted person as a result of the criminal conviction.
A pardon is an expression of the President’s forgiveness and ordinarily is granted in recognition of the applicant’s acceptance of responsibility for the crime and established good conduct for a significant period of time after conviction or completion of sentence. It does not signify innocence. It does, however, remove civil disabilities – e.g., restrictions on the right to vote, hold state or local office, or sit on a jury – imposed because of the conviction for which pardon is sought, and should lessen the stigma arising from the conviction.
https://www.justice.gov/pardon/frequently-asked-questions-concerning-executive-clemency
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Outsource all your reading to Warren and Charlie. Buy BRK.
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The people who are actually gifted enough in business and economics (unlike Trump) have better things to do with their time than become President (because they are so gifted). Gates and Buffett come to mind.
What? His net worth is 10+ Billion. Not gifted enough in business or economics?
Or so he says. Forbes says he's worth $2.9, I'm inclined to side with Forbes. He's also had a nice boost from his wealthy dad.
Well Trump's net worth can fluctuate from $3 to $10 billion depending on his mood.
How does Trump calculate his own net worth? In a deposition he gave in a 2006 lawsuit, here’s what he said:Q. Let me just understand that a little bit. Let’s talk about net worth for a second. You said that the net worth goes up and down based upon your own feelings?
A. Yes, even my own feelings, as to where the world is, where the world is going, and that can change rapidly from day to day. Then you have a September 11th, and you don’t feel so good about yourself and you don’t feel so good about the world and you don’t feel so good about New York City. Then you have a year later, and the city is as hot as a pistol. Even months after that it was a different feeling. So yeah, even my own feelings affect my value to myself.
Q. When you publicly state what you’re worth, what do you base that number on?
A. I would say it’s my general attitude at the time that the question may be asked. And as I say, it varies.
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What's with Trump always saying America gets killed on trade due to trade deficits with Mexico and China? Like having a 50 billion trade deficit translates into losing 50 billion dollars and you are not importing an extra 50 billion in goods.
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KMI and KMI.WS
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I don't think that analogy makes any sense.
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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s most crucial political test this year begins on Monday in a state with more people than Germany.
In five phases over the next four weeks, voters in Bihar will cast ballots to elect the next legislative assembly in a state economy that has seen growth surge in recent years from a very low base. For many, the election boils down to a simple question: Can Modi do more to lift the state out of poverty than current leader Nitish Kumar?
The vote in Bihar is important for Modi’s efforts to control India’s upper house, where opposition lawmakers have blocked key economic proposals such as a nationwide sales tax that would make the country a single market. A win would give him momentum in about a dozen more state elections through 2017 that will determine control of the body.
“It would be a positive for the markets if he wins, and a negative if he loses because it will be seen as difficult for him to pass through legislative reforms," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at the Mumbai-based Credit Analysis & Research Ltd. “A loss could also mean the government could be losing its charisma and signal further losses in the state elections to follow."
Phase 1 is already done. Results out November 8th. Recent opinion polls flip back and forth between parties https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bihar_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2015#Opinion_polls (Modi is the BJP - middle column).
It sounds like this Bihar election is quite important. Can anyone with more in-depth knowledge fill us in on how this could effect Modi's reforms?
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Voting ABC
In Nunavut I think that means Liberal. NDP guy doesn't seem that great.
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Probably a 300+ Actions Per Minute Grandmaster Starcraft player. Definitely an edge.
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In Newton's defense, a lot of the systematic theory of investment value was not developed yet. He couldn't read Graham, Keynes, John Burr Williams or even Adam Smith - he had to figure out investing on his own. We don't have that excuse today.
Iirc Keynes himself was nearly wiped out from a currency bubble and a commodities bubble before taking a more value/concentrated approach.
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Can the BoC raise rates?
I bet the BoC/CMHC/Feds are in a constant panic. There must be regular internal reports like "if interest rates go up 1%, 2 million Canadians will lose their homes".
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Wow that is low.
I'm calculating roughly 3% in Victoria. I don't have any insurance though. Also had maintenance, vacancy and management fees.
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Having a bitch of a time selling my condo in Victoria, anyone want it?
Anyone know what cap rates usually are in multi-family residentials?
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Value investors are wrong when they think they can be capable value investors when they don't have the appropriate tools. As Buffett and Munger have pointed out numerous times there is a patience and control of emotions required to arbitrage price and value that maybe only a small subsection of humans are actually capable of doing.
This board is a self reported 68.0% INTJ/P (http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/myersbriggs-type-indicator/) versus an expected occurrence in the population of 2 to 7%. Assuming this board also has a higher weighting of successful value investors than the general public I think this suggests personality traits may play a significant factor in value investing success.
I don't know what the exact number would be, but I think value investing is a mistake for a majority of the population. The Superinvestors of Graham and Doddsville proves that value investing can work, but it does not prove that there will be no Loserinvestors of Graham and Doddsville.
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It would have to be a business I am running.
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You really need to define self-interest for me because you are using it like it's a deus ex machina. If everything magically worked out "because self-interest", then the ideal governance structure would already be in place.
Buffett or Munger quote
in Berkshire Hathaway
Posted
Wow, I feel like you just gave me the key to a treasure chest, what an amazing resource. Thanks!