Palantir
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Posts posted by Palantir
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I'm not saying that he should be shown leniency because of his good work. Rather, I think insider trading shouldn't be punished as severely as it is. A benign crime like that shouldn't put Raj in jail for 10 years.
I can't believe that one would consider this a benign crime although it is considered that way when the politicians do it. I guess it's okay how the securities commission looks the other way on the rest of the things going on with wall street. It's all benign anyway.
If this is so harmful, want to tell me who was exactly harmed by Rajaratnam trading on info that Goldman was about to get an investment from Buffett? Then once you've identified the victimized party, explain to me how that deserves ten years in prison.
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I'm not saying that he should be shown leniency because of his good work. Rather, I think insider trading shouldn't be punished as severely as it is. A benign crime like that shouldn't put Raj in jail for 10 years.
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I agree with them. I think the sentences for insider trading were far too harsh especially for Raj. 10 years is just too much for a pretty benign crime. I think even 2 yr sentences would have been enough punishment. I'm serious FYI.
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An HBS grad who's working as a financial assistant?
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I think that if you are a value investor, the better way to play options is to accentuate your investment view via options.
Say you believe BRK.B is a good stock, but you only feel it's 20% undervalued, but want to buy it at 40% discount. So you should sell put options at that particular price. That way you make money off the premium, and if the option is exercised, then you get the stock you want at your price, because option cost effectively reduces the price.
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I agree....you may not be using macro to generate ideas, but I think if you're managing a portfolio....you must be aware of macro events, and be able to think defensively. Outperforming the benchmark by 4% in a 08-style crash is good, but I'd rather be the guy who avoids that alltogether...
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This begs the question:
Why am I not buying DaVita???
The PE is 18, but if you do P/OCF, it's like less than 10
I came across DVA a while back and loved it. But it's a restricted entity where I work and I cannot invest. :'(
Shame. I'm estimating their intrinsic value to be.... about 15B compared to 9.8B right now....I might as well go in.
Do you have any estimate of IV?
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I don't know much about insurance. I know a lot of people here do, so I have a question: Is it possible for a great investor who understands insurance to come close to doing what Buffett did? Could a Buffett clone even do it if he were starting out today? It seems simple - lever up, buy the safest and strongest businesses you can find, and don't chase after unprofitable insurance business. But I wonder if the insurance industry has changed or gotten competitive so that it isn't possible anymore.
I think the way to think about it is - if you have a good insurance operation that generates float at zero or even negative cost, then an investor can probably be "plugged in" to the operation to invest the float, and due to the leverage can get great returns. So the key here I think, is having a great insurance business.
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I'm skeptical. $10 sounds fine to those who use the forums already. But to prospective users who aren't quite familiar with the site to know its value, it'll drive them away I think.
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This begs the question:
Why am I not buying DaVita???
The PE is 18, but if you do P/OCF, it's like less than 10
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What if they destroy value via bad acquisitions?
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Cadbury's are hella tasty. [/contribution]
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I am not as knowledgeable about this as some of you. I am curious to know how does this internal leverage generate high returns? Is it essentially buying up businesses with low RoC and low risk with the float?
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I wonder how a rising Yuan will change his thesis on Chinese banks...
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Thanks....that's pretty much in line with historical values. I went in at PB=1, and I'm just trying to decide how long to hold.
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I'm not skilled enough to value BRK...what rough BV multiple do you guys feel it's worth?
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Well, of course you are right… as far as history is concerned! But, paraphrasing Mr. Buffett, if history were all there is about investing, librarians would be the richest people on earth. Past results are very important, far from me saying the contrary! But, they are not everything. You must also judge the business model, the management, and the price. Only then you can make a bet on the future! And I like what I see in FFH: I believe the opportunities to markedly improve their underwriting performance are there and will be exploited.
Frank, do you really think you would be able to buy one of the best capital allocator out there at book value, if it were also the best underwriter?! No way, right? Think of it this way: on the underwriting front they have much room to “surprise” the market. And I see all the necessary premises in place, to achieve that: a great underwriting philosophy, a disciplined management, and troubles inherited from the past (see, for instance, Crum & Forster) that are constantly, albeit slowly, fading away.
giofranchi
Yeah but, if you buy above book value, you will not get the benefit of investment returns....say BV is going to compound at 10% annually, but you buy at 1.1xBV, what's your return?
For example, look at Loews, they're trading at a 20% discount to BV....and have similar growth record as FFH. Anyways this is outside my circle of competence...I'll stick to GOOG and PH.
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BRK has great underlying businesses. GEICO, sees, furniture mart, dairy queen etc. List of great businesses goes on and on, but nobody/or most (generalizing) is screaming about FFH because of its underlying business. People like this stock because its Prem Watsa and his amazing historical returns on the investment portfolio. Take that away and you got an average insurance operation(s).
So essentially you're saying it's basically a large closed end equity fund, with the leverage coming from insurance float?
Also, if rates stay suppressed for a long time (possible), all that time is wasted when you could have bought things like GOOG.
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There are a lot of insurances selling at book or near book...what sets FFH apart from firms like WTM or MKL? Now at least WTM has been buying back aggressively, they've reduced share count by 25% over the past five years and selling below BVPS.....
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To me, investing is work, creativity, and passion, it is not about making a lot of money, but being intrinsically interested in studying firms and economies and unraveling the threads connecting them.
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Excellent paper on asset class returns. I'm going to have to read this over and over again....If you guys find more of these, hope you post them.
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Right now my favorite 3 undervalued are Parker Hannifin, Daily Journal Corporation DJCO, and George Risk Industries RSKIA. With more pitches to come....
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Is SumZero any good? I read VIC, and that's obviously really first rate.
What are they thinking?
in General Discussion
Posted
You cannot be serious. If you were on the losing side of his trade, even if Raj didn't know the information you still would have made the trade anyways. Given that the trade would have been made anyway, being on the losing side of Raj's trade makes him deserve 10 years in prison?
Here is an example of a guy who got 10 years in prison:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2012/10/professional-clown-gets-10-years-in-prison-for-raping-girl.html
Is it illegal? Sure...but it is not a significant harm at all. I don't see why "being on the losing side of the trade" should be punished the same as a fricking child rapist.