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Palantir

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Posts posted by Palantir

    The last time the Dow was here

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I don't believe the market is too high at all. I believe the economy is strengthening and I am happy to see a process of monetary easing that will continue to add liquidity and ensure economic growth for the long term, and I am glad to see that the US has a government that is willing to carry it out. I believe the rally has strong fundamentals, and am looking forward to profiting from it.

     

    If for some reason, some idiots decide that monetary easing should not continue and rates should rise, then my thesis will be invalidated quickly. Hopefully that does not happen.

     

    Despite my bullishness, I am 35% in cash. WTF?

    Big excerpt from Baupost 2012 annual letter

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Mr Klarman, like many value investors seem to get really really weak and un-insightful when talking about macroeconomic issues and tend to distill their points into the same buzzwords of "easy money", "ticking time bomb", "debasement" etc. etc. Just like how last year, with David Einhorn's usual soundbites of "Ben Bernanke is printing too much money". Kind of disappointing. Buffett also has this problem, but thankfully, doesn't stray into it as much.

     

    Would have been more insightful had he talked about his strength - finding undervalued securities, but he keeps that knowledge close to his vest, and we get this.

    Value investing in options?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I agree with relatively stable stocks, but disagree with the 'aren't moving too much'.  Options premium is determined by volatility which does not always equal business risk.  As such you will get relatively small premiums for companies with low volatility.  Personally I prefer stocks that are pretty volatile where I believe there is reasonable downside protection, either in the way of assets or recurring revenue and moat.  Your premiums in those scenarios will be much higher.

     

    I disagree with this somewhat. IMO when you're selling calls you're not really taking the position that the option itself is overvalued. You're really taking a long position on the underlying. The option position is merely expressing that bullish view, while you don't retain any directional opinion on the option price.  When you sell calls on a volatile stock you're shorting volatility, which I think is a different concept than what I'm proposing - which is taking a long position on a moderately undervalued stock.

     

    But all IMO of course.

    Value investing in options?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I think a great target for covered call strategies are relatively stable stocks that aren't moving too much, things like MSFT, Loews etc. If you have a strong idea of the firm's intrinsic value, this is another great way IMO of expressing that view and gaining an extra return because you are going into the trade more informed than your counterparty because you know the stock so well. This strategy IMO, is perfect for value investors. I believe WEB himself began his position in BNSF by selling puts.

     

     

    If I was investing a bigger amount, I'd totally do this.

    Business School Question - HBS vs. Columbia Value Investing Program

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I find it interesting how many "great" investors don't have a conventional background.  I haven't seen many interviews where a guru says "I graduated top of my class, then I went to HBS, then I worked as a sell-side analyst for two years, then buyside and worked my way up."  Sure there might be some, but usually the story is more along the lines of "I don't have a typical story.."

     

     

    I disagree, I think this is very much the most common story. The "unusual cases" are sticking out in your mind precisely because they are unusual.

     

    You can be an undrafted player or a 6th round draft pick and become a superstar quarterback. It is easy to think of Tom Brady or Kurt Warner but most NFL QB's are high draft picks who were highly touted college players.

    Business School Question - HBS vs. Columbia Value Investing Program

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Lots of analysts are good (maybe good enough) but very few are actually great at what they do.  I just think if they are as good as they think they are then they shouldn't have a problem finding a job. Companies are always looking for good people even in tough times. If the company can Trade up and probably pay a lower wage than before, why wouldn't the company do it?

     

    Do you believe security markets are efficient? Being a value investor, you likely do not. Then why would labor markets, with far more restrictions, behavioral biases, transaction costs, asymmetrical information, and minimal feedback mechanisms be efficient?

     

    I am biased in the other direction as I see people with little or no innate talent constantly get jobs based on solid resumes which further burnish their credentials. Employers want experienced candidates who can operate quickly with minimal oversight. Talent in my opinion is of little importance in getting a job, but it can help you excel there. You can call me disgruntled, but my opinion stands. I have had interviews with good investment firms and they are all like, "I like the way you think...but uh you don't really have much experience doing this". O well.

    Business School Question - HBS vs. Columbia Value Investing Program

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I'll be contrarian and say you shouldn't go to either. Careerists are sickening people, generally, and you should focus on your true passion. Considering that investing can be learned without a formal education, you may as well save yourself the cash.

     

    The idea that a formal education is useful is true because people believe it is true. It is, in that way, a rational astrology. Do not give in to something that doesn't make sense when you look beyond the superficial - this world needs more drop outs.

     

     

    Not necessarily. A top tier MBA like this could be a "catalyst" that helps the OP realize his intrinsic value so to speak. He can learn investing w/o going to HBS, but HBS will give him a good opportunity to land a desirable job. I don't see any harm in going to HBS.

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