FrankArabia
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Posts posted by FrankArabia
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are all the 13Fs filed already?
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I am long AIG and agree with BB.
Insurance/banks are risky per se, but that is why you perform security analysis to not just throw a blanket over it. I think however, most investors do hence their low valuaton.
You can rip apart any investment, but the points in the article were not insightful if you actually read the annual reports of the respective companies and understand the industry.
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I think Berkowitz makes a lot of sense. I think the writer makes some valid though futile points. in particular, financials are risky per se, but that doesn't mean they all are and berkowitz outlines the reasons why certain financials are good bargains.
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macdonalds is a wonderful franchise.....
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i hear you about INTC being range bound. keep in mind though if you're paying the same price for the same company as you did ten years ago, either 1) the company has made no progress (EPS flat/down) 2) company was valued higher by the street 3) fundamentals expected to deteriorate materially. if the third option is not true you got yourself a bargain.
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I think that's just the wrong way to look at it. Firms with declining moats can waste away their cash, and destroy value very quickly. I think it's a mistake to only look at it because it is "cheap"...rather you should focus on business model going into the future, that's where the margin of safety is. If you find strengths within Intel's business model that you feel will create value in the future, that is a different story.
Are you long INTC?
EDIT: I think MSFT is actually cheaper than INTC. It is trading at less than 10xFCFE, and you also have to take MSFT's 65B net cash pile into account.
Yes long INTC @ 24.75. almost 5% but look to add after more research. I think there is a balance between cheapness/quality. won't get into INTC here. you probably know more about the tech stuff than I do so its not worth me rehashing info and debating whether they can enter the mobile space and whether ARM will eat its lunch.
also your idea of margin of safety is not exactly correct. the margin of safety can come from 1) price 2) growth. I don't know what you mean by "margin of safety" by focusing on the business model. Please elaborate and give a quantitative example if possible. use MSFT since you own it, what is my margin of safety if I buy at $30.
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contracting moat, sure. but look at what the price tag is on the company. there is a free call option being sold on this company right now.
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Not sure about HPQ/Dell, but INTC to me would be a high quality with current headwinds.
If you find a reason why they're not please state them.
Its difficult to find a leading high cash generating company at the current respective prices. keep in mind INTC is 10X the value of ARM (which receives a very high valuation).
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what if Warren passes but Munger lives another 10 years?
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AIG/BofA don't exactly have "wide moats"...they just decent businesses selling for cheap....FFH has no moat really, you're buying into Prem and his team's investment skills...their insurance operations are mediocre.
BRK is the only one that owns underlying businesses with wide moats.
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i would add to what i currently own.....no need for too many new stock ideas....the stocks i want to buy are all way above what i look to pay
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i'm just pulling your leg Gio....i like FFH and respect it as a long term holding. As the call highlights and as Prem has reiterated time and time again they're doing this for the long haul. Its one of the few Canadian investments i would consider owning in the future....
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anybody listen to the conference call?
was that you gio who called as the guy had been invested in 2010 and feels like we may be headed for another 7 lean years?
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this result should not be a surprise to anybody. there is basically no point in quarterly earnings for this company.
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Are there hidden assets here?
Total assets here is about $130 million, equity is about $18 millon.
This company may be able to generate $-15$20 million in a good year.
Yet the company is selling for right now about $300 million.
I must be missing something very big here. please fill me in.
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according to Chou Funds, the average cost per share is around $20...francis hasn't made it out of the woods yet with this stock.....
i respect Francis a whole lot. any idea what the main thesis for this company is?
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Someone has an actual record (this means real AUM) better than Mohnish on here? I like to speak with you.
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so the deal closed in May I believe, and we're already saying whether it will be a success or not?
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this sounds like a plan. i'm right around the corner. see you guys there.
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are these wishful numbers or what? I don't know a single person is geared up for this Surface thing. but lets see what happens.
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I truly admire Charlie. never get tired of reading his views. its just brilliant.
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BRK has leading positions in various sectors including insurance while Markel and FFH doesn't....with MKL/FFH, the value belongs a lot to the float
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who wouldn't take WFC over BAC on equal valuation. However, WFC is selling at twice the multiple....i'm long JPM which is right in the middle...
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funny, i'm looking to do the same with similar fee structure...though I do not have the 1-5million
Berkowitz, Bruce Almighty
in General Discussion
Posted
I think Buffet has spoken plenty of times against this type of thinking....so what if he is concentrated in financials? it makes absolutely no difference so long as he is right about the business in the long term...the financial system is safer than pre crisis at this stage....the world economy is weaker but that won't be forever...