FrankArabia
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Posts posted by FrankArabia
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i follow Onex.
they have done fabulously over last 12 months and they were quite undervalued at $33 not too long ago.
the major headwind for PE firms is that they're unable to offload some of these securities in what are still tough equity markets.
though I don't think its a major issue, I think some are concerned about how they are valuing some of the assets on the book.
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replied. nothing but respect from me.
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Just a question but do any of the people who are actually criticizing Paulson have any money management experience or even experience in the money management industry?
playing with petty cash in your trading account is not the same thing as managing money for third parties. Its very different once you do it for somebody else professionally and even more different once you get into the billions and billions of dollars....
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its funny when people with barely enough money in their trading accounts for Paulson's car service has the audacity to call him "lucky" like he just woke up and was able to manage money and win big.....
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i bet you he gives the same answer as Buffet....these guys don't quit...why would they?
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middling? dude, i would like to see anybody here come close to those numbers managing a half decent portfolio.....picking random stocks in your portfolio doesn't count.....
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Gio....definitely agree.....I'm going to try and get a job at FFH.....
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the wierd thing about FFH for me is, i wouldn't mind putting 100% of my net worth with the company.....out of all the stocks I have, i feel there is the most downside protection.....on the other hand, i have a downbeat assessment of their near term returns on equity....strange....
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maybe Prem is getting scared and liquidating his position slowly.....leaving us small retail guys to hold the bag....
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lets hope these shares go down more....i picked up only a small portion the first time around....nothing better than for the price to sink makes my job much much easier...
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yupe they will need buyers.....essentially Sears may be better liquidated...problem is, who needs that much space?
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i read the annual report and what berkowitz said....essentially, Sears its a cigar butt with undervalued real estate assets. they're trying to improve profits but can't really gain traction. They have a bunch of undervalued real estate that is likely worth more than stated gaap results.......at the end of the day, i still see profits from sears to be the most important driver and I have very little confidence on that front
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JPM has benefited tremendously from the financial crisis....not only has their domestic share gone up but so has their investment banking/trading share ...i really should have loaded up at tangible book but I'm adding slowly from levels here.....WFS is good too but its trading at a 30% premium....
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JD would not come off well to people in the government. I remember when i first started listening to JPM conference calls and I thought immediately "JD comes across as a real ahole". he isn't, he is just very passionate but most people won't stand around to discover the truth.
If JD left JPM, i would seriously consider selling my shares.
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over 50% of my reason for being in JPM is due to JD.....the other half is split between quality of franchise and valuation....
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prem didn't buy it to sell near term.....and if he really needed to sell he would....nothing can really stop him
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I'm amazed at how Prem buys.....but surprised he jumped in at 50+...not sure if that is right....i thought he started buying around the high 20s.....
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Ross,
I'm a tech newbie so I don't have much of a sense for what they do though i'm learning...
but by my math assuming declining sales for the next 3 years and lower margins, my calc still shows this company as fairly valued..in a nutshell, i'm assuming ROE of 10% which is significantly lower than their historical average....I get this by slashing margins by 50%....
as they're still the dominant force in (albeit declining) PCs and data servers, they still hold the keys to a decent cash flow generator....
if it goes down to 15 or even lower, i would be a even more happy buyer....
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Ross, we're partners in Intel. I have a 10% target allocation on it. i'm at 6%+/- at the moment......
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the embedded value is there to account for some of the value gaap/ifrs accounting doesn't capture...however it is by no means a substitute
the underlying problem with life insurance accounting is based on the fact life insurance is essentially a long tail business and therefore heavy assumptions must be made. Inherently this is unreliable and EV doesn't improve on this one bit. the issue is even more complicating when annualties and guarantees are made which brings interest rate/market risk into the fold.
When someone is calculating the EV it is similar to calculating reserves. They assume a level of mortality and experience losses and the profits that come along with this. Therefore, it is also guess work but more sophisticated guesses per se. Not surprisingly, EV normally shows that a lifeco is worth more than what is stated on book because it captures profits overtime (value of in force business).
life companies generally do not earn more than 10% of their capital overtime (neither does P&C). Therefore, buy one significantly under book and one where premiums written are low in relation to equity. in addition, make sure guarantees in force is low with rates that are reasonable. avoid companies that have a lot of guarantees written in bull markets. finally, you have to trust management.
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what about Munger? what da heck is he doing these days?
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missed my price....damm......
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not bad....i like this.....
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I doubt that Buffett would agree that a extremely high concentration in financials is a good idea even if you are right about the business in the long term. There isn't going to be a long term for financial companies if the market disagrees with you: most financial companies can't survive very long if they don't have access to debt or equity funding. So you introduce a fair amount of systematic risk in your portfolio if you own almost only financials.
Buffet wagered a lot when he bought Geico when it was near bankruptcy....so no....i think he would agree.....BRK is dominated by financials from insurance to WFC/AXP in the common portfolio.....
ppl who don't understand financials will inevitably say its risky (as they problably should)....but look at LUK...their biggest business is now an investment bank.....and look at Prem Watsa, he basically runs an insurance company....
FRFHF - HWIC constituents
in Fairfax Financial
Posted
does anybody have more information regarding careers at HWIC?