FFHWatcher
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Posts posted by FFHWatcher
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The redemption price in October 2010 is $25.37, so the premium is really $0.63 or about 3%. I believe they take out the ORH preferred's to clean up the structure.
Ummm, that is next year. 12 months away. Raising $200m today, sit on the cash, pay the $11.5M in interest and redeem the ORH prefs in 12 months? Or, go ahead and pay $26 today and get it over with, save on interest costs, save on filing costs but pay a 4% up front premium?
Neither seem that likely to me but the later seems more likely. I will also add that since NB has no long term debt, than my earlier suggestion doesn't hold much water.
Interesting that they are adding Cdn $ debt.
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They have to pay a 4% premium to redeem those issues ($1. over the $25. face value) if they do it before Oct. 2010.
ORH Series 'A' - 8.125% vs. New Issue 5.75% = 2.375% cost savings. Why pay a 4% premium to face value to save 2.375% for one year (re: Series A, an even larger spread on Series 'B')? The other change is the currency of the dividend (US$ to Cdn$). If FFH felt they US$ was in a long term decline, why issue dividends in Cdn$?
Generally, don't company's match dividend payments with the main currency of the majority of their revenue?
Has anyone contemplated that this is more geared towards NB than ORH?
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Are you kidding?
100 shares traded today. Maybe you overlooked the volume?
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Here is a cut and paste of the Prospectus Supplement. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137048/000090956705001607/t18226e424b5.htm
I believe they are redeemable at $26. prior to Oct. 20, 2010.
Odyssey Re Holdings Corp.
8.125% Series A Preferred Shares
(Liquidation Preference $25 Per Share)
Odyssey Re Holdings Corp. is offering 2,000,000 shares of its 8.125% series A preferred stock, par value $0.01 per share (the “series A preferred shares”).
Upon liquidation, dissolution or winding-up, the holders of the series A preferred shares will be entitled to receive from our assets legally available for distribution to stockholders a liquidation preference of $25 per share, plus declared and unpaid dividends, if any, to the date fixed for distribution. Dividends on the series A preferred shares will be payable on a non-cumulative basis only when, as and if declared by our board of directors, quarterly in arrears on the twentieth day of January, April, July and October of each year, commencing on January 20, 2006, at a rate equal to 8.125% of the liquidation preference per annum (equivalent to $2.03125 per share).
On and after October 20, 2010, we may redeem the series A preferred shares, in whole or in part, at any time, at a redemption price of $25 per share, plus declared and unpaid dividends, if any, to the date of redemption. We may not redeem the series A preferred shares before October 20, 2010, except that we may redeem the series A preferred shares before that date at a redemption price of $26 per share, plus declared and unpaid dividends, if any, to the date of redemption, if we are required to submit to the holders of our common stock a proposal for any matter that requires, as a result of a change in Delaware law after the date of this prospectus supplement, for its validation or effectuation an affirmative vote of the holders of the series A preferred shares at the time outstanding, whether voting as a separate series or together with any other series or class of preferred stock as a single class. The series A preferred shares have no stated maturity and will not be subject to any sinking fund or mandatory redemption and will not be convertible into any of our other securities or property.
There is currently no public market for the series A preferred shares. We have applied to list the series A preferred shares on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “ORH PrA.” If the application is approved, trading in the series A preferred shares is expected to commence within 30 days after the initial delivery of the series A preferred shares. Our common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “ORH.” On October 13, 2005 the last reported sale price of our common stock on the NYSE was $24.95 per share.
Concurrently with this offering of series A preferred shares, we are offering 2,000,000 shares of our floating rate series B preferred stock, par value $0.01 and liquidation preference $25 per share, which we refer to in this prospectus supplement as the “series B preferred shares.” The series B preferred shares will be offered pursuant to a separate prospectus supplement. Neither offering is contingent upon the other.
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Has anyone's opinion changed or became even more convinced with the ORH buyout with only 5M shares or so traded at above the proposed buyout price?
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don't know about the odds either.
I realized about 75% in your option #2.
Leaving remaining 25% for option #3.
I just sold some of my 2010 $45. options.
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If the subs get cash for stock (the ones holding ORH stock) cant they dividend any surplus stock up. Also isnt ORH overcapitalized. I think the transaction itself will improve the balance sheet and increase holding company cash.
Am I missing something here?
Why would FFH buy out/pay cash to their subs for the ORH that is held within the subs? FFH is simply buying out the shares it does not already own and they already own the ORH shares held in the subs. I assume the ORH shares will stay in the various subs. Maybe some shuffling, maybe some exchanging, maybe they will dividend some shares to the holdco, if permitted, etc.
They are buying the directors shares, their CEO's shares, Marshfield and Assoc. shares,
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS INC Aronson, Johnson & Ortiz
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES, LLC
VANGUARD GROUP, INC. (THE)
Barclays Global Investors UK Holdings Ltd 4
MADISON INVESTMENT ADVISORS
NORTHERN TRUST CORPORATION
HENNESSY ADVISORS, INC.
and a few hundred or a few thousand small shareholders like the people on this board and others that own a few hundred or a few thousand shares.
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Now I am confused.
BV is important when you own something that is at or under BV.
MV is important when you own something that is trading at 3X's BV.
Rhetorical questions/statements
I forgot to add disclosure.
I bought at around $40 in the summer and sold this morning at $62 something. Approx. 10% of net worth in it.
Still holding $45. - 2010 options...just in case greed wins and because they aren't trading at the same premium as the common...but pretty close.
How do the 2010 options play out? Has that been discussed.
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I might as well throw in my 2 cents worth.
I think FFH/Prem will look even more silly to their true long term FFH shareholders if they chase the ORH price because a few greedy minority shareholders (who have likely made 50% in a few months), want to earn an extra 10%. I believe much of this greed is based on the rest of the market rebounding aggressively. If it wasn't, we wouldn't see this level of greed. Greed perpetuates itself. Who says their stocks holdings are worth what the market value is showing? Maybe WFC and all others are worth a lot less than their market value? What if all the ORH stock holdings in their portfolio were actually worth their book value and not their market value?
People can say, "but the value is $X, because of this..." , they aren't just reinsurers anymore, their BV is understated because of ICICI, large gains due to the stock market rebound, etc......
At the end of the day, millions and millions of shares have traded at the market and never has a seller received anything close to $60. Are all the holders of all those millions of shares wrong or stupid or did they think they were getting a fair price at the time?
ORH is worth more to FFH than to anyone else and they are paying up for it. Why be greedy?
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No time right now to double check but I thought I read something last week that showed Chou sold ICO ? Maybe a mis-read it. His semi-annual reports shows a double on ICO but that was for June 30th.
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If it were a Cdn buyout (which initially makes sense), than it still doesn't explain why FFH went from $150M to $400M in 24 hours. In fact, the $150M to $400M change in 24 hours likely only supports debt repurchase theory.
"Hey, let's refinance $150M of our debt coming due in a few years." Next Day meeting. "Huge demand for our $150M debt issuance. Lead U/W's say they can likely find buyers for at least $400M with multiple buyers wanting close to $150M themselves (ie. Mackenzie Financial, OMERS, TPP, etc.). Want to really push out our maturities?" Response. "Why wouldn't we?"
Today is the 18th of August. Day of closing, no?
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Is there a 100% relationship between those who own ORH shares and those that think FFH will buyout ORH at a premium? Just curious ;D
(long ORH)
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As sad as it is to say, I agree with Stubblejumper (SJ) regarding the general sentiment from financially literate of what the Brick is to the financially illiterate/lower-income/poor credit history customer. However, for the financially literate consumer, you can likely get some pretty good deals at the Brick but unfortunately for the Brick, it doesn't sound like they will make any margin from selling their goods if they do not finance or sell you an extended warranty. I am adding these comments as a consumer living in southern Ontario, not as an investor who has analyzed their financial statements. Perhaps Future Shop is similar?
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Somewhat off topic but involving ORH. Does anyone recall where FFH holds their ORH shares? I don't believe they are in the holding company, certainly not entirely?
Can someone refresh my memory and perhaps comment on the flexibility or lack of flexibility that FFH has with where they hold their ORH shares? I believe this asset is held within the reserves or perhaps at the subs holding company (non-regulated entities). Is it set up the same as NB or C&F?
Thanks,
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An insider can't trade if they have material information or during the blackout period. The blackout period is generally the time from the close of the quarter until the release of the results. Therefore, the end of the quarter is Tuesday June 30th and Brian's last purchase was, not by coincident, June 29th.
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I would hate to see the current FFH share price if FFH didn't realize $2.1B on the CDS portfolio (thanks in large part to Brian) :o
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Spending 2008 bonus? He deserves at least that. Hope he doesn't read this ;D
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agreed.
but it sounds like we disagree on the other stuff...which is ok too. ;)
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I see HWIC as private and proprietary and something that should not be shared with the general public, not even shareholders. I wish they didn't have to disclose their holdings publicly. Sanj and many others don't, why should Prem?
I think the reality is that many shareholders and FFH followers simply try to steal their investment ideas and, in some cases, this has likely hurt FFH investment results.
So my question regarding the HWIC website is, What are you hoping to find on a HWIC website that you can't find on the SEC website? FFH probably shouldn't have a hyperlink on their website. If that is your concern/beef, than I agree. Get rid of it.
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What shorts? No one is still shorting FFH. 250k shares is as close to zero as can be.
Who stands to benefit?
Perhaps we need to keep an eye on the May 15th to June 1st short interest change? The average change in short interest has only been +/- 20k-50k shares every couple of weeks. It would be interesting if this number was significantly larger between May 15 and June 1st.
Of course, this subject has been done to death. I wish I had $1. for every post that claimed the share price was going to skyrocket whenever these multi-million share shorts covered. Shorts covered, FFH earned $2B on CDS's and the stock didn't skyrocket (but there was a big move plus short covering between Sept. 15 and Oct. 1, 2008. 500k shares covered and price went up from $220 to $320 but then 500k shares were covered the following 2 weeks and the sp went down and then another 500k shares were covered the following 2 weeks and the sp went down again, almost all the way back down to $220 but not quite.). Therefore, following this stuff is pretty close to a waste of time, no?
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I have scotia itrade (formerly ETrade Canada) and Qtrade, here in Canada. Qtrade has way better service if you call in. I prefer the ScotiaItrade user interface a little better. I would recommend both. Not sure on your RRSP question and options.
See the attached link for RRSP eligible investments
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Interesting.
That monthly change in BV is about the same as Prem paid for FFH back in 1985 which is also about the same as the previous years FFH dividend. I wonder what the next 25 years will bring? Same old, same old? We should start a new thread. "Daily change in FFH BV"
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Yeah, sorry about that.
I try to focus as much as I can (difficult at times) on what Prem writes and talks about versus what I read in press releases, news articles, etc. Everyone else has their own agenda, employers, biases, opinions, etc. Prem just wants to make money for FFH...end of story. Go straight to the source and read the reports listed on their website and on the SEC website.
www.fairfax.ca
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000915191&owner=include
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Page 1 - 2008 Annual Letter to Shareholders (www.fairfax.ca)
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While 2007 was a record year for us, 2008 was even better!We earned approximately $1.5 billion after tax or $79.53 per diluted share. Book value grew by 21.0% to $278.28 per share (excluding the $5.00 per share dividend paid in 2008) and we ended the year with over $1.5 billion in cash and marketable securities at the holding company level. We were net cash at the holding company level, as our cash and marketable securities exceeded holding company debt and other obligations....
$278 - 23 = $255 (March 31st)
$255 + 30 = $285 (April 30th)
SFK pulp
in Fairfax Financial
Posted
that sounds like a sell signal if I've ever heard one ;)
If you were wrong the first time, what's changed that makes you certain that it will make you money this time? You aren't suggesting a 50% gain but a 500% gain.
disclosure : I did a similar thing as you. Bought it, sold it at a small loss and then bought back and went on to show a 40% loss, I averaged down a lot and am now showing a 20% profit....on paper. I will be the first one to tell you that I am not capable of reasonably determining whether they eventually default.