giofranchi
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Posts posted by giofranchi
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I am reading "The Richest Man Who Ever Lived - The Life and Times of Jacob Fugger" by Greg Steinmetz
[amazonsearch]The Richest Man Who Ever Lived - The Life and Times of Jacob Fugger[/amazonsearch]
I thought I had read the biography of all the most influential entrepreneurs past and present... I was wrong!... I had probably missed THE most influential! ;)
What a great find for anyone interested in history or wealth creation!
Cheers,
Gio
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Gio - I couldnt tell from the article what his track record was. Has he taken an orphaned drug and made it a success yet? How big of a sample size is needed to prove that he can do this consistently?
The strategy seems to be buying lotto tickets. Maybe he has an edge but the burden of proof should be really high imo.
Well, from the article we get to know that he has found at least two multi-bagger for the edge fund he started working for when he was 25, and that he was made partner just a couple of years later. The Alzheimer drug is his first attempt on his own, and has already been a great success. If he is buying lotto tickets, he has already won the national lottery at least three times! ;)
To me they look much more like very cheap options.
Of course, I am not saying I am investing… All I am saying is I am not “dismissing” and I’ll keep watching with interest.
Cheers,
Gio
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Cheers,
Gio
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Is Axovant's Alzheimer's Drug The Real Deal, Or A Phantasm?
Cheers,
Gio
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I should probably do more digging before speaking but it sounds like he is riding the biotech bubble right? Buying some orphaned pharma product and then ipo-ing it.
Much more skeptical of this business model than VRX. But who knows, it might work.
Of course it is easy to dismiss him as just another hedge fund wonder-kid who is riding the biotech bubble and is destined to fail miserably as soon as that bubble bursts… And that seems exactly what everyone has done!
But I like the strategy: there might actually be drugs which are resting on the shelves for reasons that have nothing to do with their intrinsic worth. If you can find and buy some of them, it could become a very lucrative business. Moreover, lots of R&D has usually already been done on those compounds, therefore, even if some more R&D investment might be needed, the risk to sink too much money in any project remains low.
Do you know many other entrepreneurs so young, who have already articulated such a clear strategy, and who have already such a good track record? I don’t. Therefore, I don’t think I am dismissing him as easily as most of you are doing… Instead, I’ll keep watching him closely! ;)
Cheers,
Gio
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Pete,
I know very well what you mean...
I have made a large investment 5 years ago in Fairfax, because I wanted something that would do well in a difficult environment, while performing "not bad" in a muddle through scenario...
To say I was not worried about macro would be a lie... Because I actually was! And because in general I don't like the insurance business much...
Insurance of course could provide you with cheap and safe leverage... But then it clearly depends on how that leverage is going to be used! Imo Dazel is right: the only way I see Fairfax making lots of money is if treasuries yield goes down, if we have a severe market correction, and/or deflation... Otherwise, I don't see how they can make lots of money...
Instead, I can see how other businesses might go on making lots of money much more clearly.
That's it imo. The present picture, as I see it. But it will surely change in the future! ;)
Cheers,
Gio
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Are you thinking of exiting your Fairfax position?
In fact that's what I have done... Though I know the odds are I'll come to regret this choice of mine...
Gio
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Dazel,
please hear me: I AM ALMOST SURE I WILL BE THE PERFECT CONTRARY INDICATOR HERE!
Your reasoning makes perfect sense to me and you surely must know how much respect I have for Mr. Watsa & Co.
But after 5 years I feel compelled to make a choice: should I go on worrying about the fact we are living in a “once in a lifetime” and “very dangerous” situation, or should I go back doing what Mr. Vanderbilt suggested commenting one of the most terrible financial panic in history (the panic of 1873):
I’ll tell you what’s the matter – people undertake to do about four times as much business as they can legitimately undertake… There are a great many worthless railroads started in this country without any means to carry them through. Respectable banking houses in New York, so called, make themselves agents for sale of the bonds of the railroads in question and give a kind of moral guarantee of their genuineness. The bonds soon reach Europe and the markets of their commercial centers, from the character of the endorsers, are soon flooded with them…
When I have some money I buy railroad stock or something else, but I don’t buy on credit, I pay for what I get. People who live too much on credit generally get brought up with a round turn in the long run. The Wall Street averages ruin many a man there, and is like faro.
I think I am going back to the simpler activity of buying great businesses at attractive prices when I have some cash…
Why now? Because after 5 years I wouldn’t know when else to stop worrying and go back to what I call “business as usual”.
But, once again, I am full aware of the fact this might be exactly the worst time possible to make such a choice!
Cheers,
Gio
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Fairfax is a USD, US Bond (we suspect they have increased these bets more than the $1b that they added in the second quarter) and a deflation bet...
Dazel,
I have no doubt you might be right… But when should I admit I were wrong and call it quit?
I am absolutely no macro investor, yet in 2010 I got worried about what I thought back then was a very unique and dangerous situation: high asset prices and high levels of debt almost everywhere.
Fairfax was the best way I could find to hedge against the potentially calamitous consequences of that situation.
5 years forward: some deleveraging has occurred and some asset prices have come down (mostly commodities)… but what has actually happened is a much more gradual process than the one I had anticipated.
Now, of course you can always make the argument the worst is still in front of us… But, really, when enough is enough? When should I admit my fears were misplaced? 5 years… A meaningful period of anyone’s life… Whatever happens in the fall, I think I have waited enough.
What I am sure about is that a bet on the USD, on treasuries, and on deflation is not the way I want to make money.
Cheers,
Gio
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Q2 2015 Results.
The two meaningful investments recently announced were made after the end of the quarter.
Cheers,
Gio
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What tangible steps is he planning to take in the next decade to make the culture intrinsically self-sustaining, so that it can stand the test of time.
Well, but I am not looking for something which could “stand the test of time”… I am looking for something led by a great and still motivated entrepreneur, who is reliable and works both for himself and for all other shareholders, and who could go on doing what he does best for the next 10-15 years… UNDISTURBED.
That’s all I am interested in. ;)
Cheers,
Gio
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How about just acknowledging that minority shareholders have rights and that we *won't* chuck Prem under the bus in just any capricious manner. Like seriously, after all of these years, Prem's partners will cut him some slack, even if we think he's gone off the rails. He doesn't need to increase the number of votes for the multiple voting shares, and this proposal borders on insulting.
If you truly think Watsa has gone “off the rails”, then you should sell your shares. Because obviously nothing else will be beneficial to your financial health. But of course you already know this. ;)
Cheers,
Gio
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Another deal by the Fairfax India team:
Another large investment: more than 12% of AUM.
National Collateral is a leading private-sector agricultural commodities storage company in India that has operated for over 10 years and is now preparing to expand to take advantage of the significant market potential in India's under-developed agricultural storage industry. The company operates in the mid-stream agriculture value chain by offering end-to-end solutions in grain procurement, testing, storage and collateral management. As a result of recent fiscal and non-fiscal policy announcements in India, private sector players such as National Collateral (www.ncml.com) are enhancing the range of solutions provided to Indian farmers, traders, food processors, banks and governments and to the businesses connected to the agriculture supply chain, thereby generating significant efficiencies to help India achieve its stated national objective of greater food security.
Sounds like another opportunity for significant growth.
Cheers,
Gio
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At best,the European Empire has stalled. At worst, it will start to shrink in a way that will jeopardize Ricardian growth across the continent. All else being equal, this will mean slower growth in the use of the euro, which now has surely become a structurally weak currency (see the chart below). In the long run, people do not like to save in the structurally weak currency of a shrinking empire, a reality which means that European bonds are likely to underperform those of other, non-shrinking, empires—the US and China—for the
foreseeable future.
--Louis Gave
Gio
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A republic of greed: Why PM Modi must crack the whip on India’s snowballing corruption
Gio
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I do not know much about Italian history but how did Italy unify successfully from a group of city-sates to a country with a wide variance of saving/investing cultures (North vs. South) and can the EU get any lessons there?
Ah!... I hope it doesn’t! ;)
Not only norther Italy has been subsidizing the central and the southern parts of the country since our unification, but also the Italian government has always been in Rome, therefore northern Italy has always been governed by the center and the south… Somewhat similar to the situation in Spain… In fact Catalonia has a long history of complaining about the government in Madrid, exactly how northern Italy has a long history of complaining about the government in Rome!
Surely, I am not advocating such a folly…
Germany should govern over the EU, but should also accept responsibilities… Instead, all they have been doing is to behave like victims:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/15/opinion/germanys-destructive-anger.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0
Cheers,
Gio
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Gio, how about adding:
5) Alexander Hamilton?
Ahah!!!!... An equivalent of Hamilton?... I would be glad (and very surprised!) if at least one of those eurocrats had read Hamilton… That would be enough! ;)
Cheers,
Gio
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So how do you solve that?
I am not saying I know the solution… I was merely pointing out that the founding fathers of the US vehemently pushed for the establishment of a central government. Which lesson might be learnt from that, if any, I cannot tell.
Cheers,
Gio
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Other then that, what is the upside?
Imo if we want a union, the stronger should govern, but should also take care of the weaker. That's what a union is all about! And that's why a central government is necessary.
Imo either we proceed towards a central government, or we go back to what we were. Because anything in between, what we are right now, simply doesn't work.
Cheers,
Gio
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I would actually just remove #1 from the list. There are some very important things that a central government can do; however, delegation of duties to smaller, localized governments at the city and state level allows for more accountability, better management, and more economic and fiscal flexibility. I'd say we actually need stronger local governments and less of a central government (outside of a few main tasks).
I don’t agree: maybe after 250 years of history you could do without a strong central government… I strongly doubt it!... But surely not at the beginning! ;)
Cheers,
Gio
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This woman is really amazing!
in General Discussion
Posted
How Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes became the world's youngest female self-made billionaire
http://www.inc.com/magazine/201510/kimberly-weisul/the-longest-game.html?cid=sf01001
Cheers,
Gio