giofranchi

Gary Shilling's 2013 Investment Themes giofranchi insight-0113b.pdf

Hi Gio, it's Warren Buffett. I don't know where he said it :( I thought I'd add a quote in my signature to keep me focused :) Ouch! Shame on me! :-[ He is the best! 8) Do you mind my using the same quote? I like it too much, and I guess twacowfca won’t get upset, because I wouldn’t trade his great uncle’s wisdom for anything less than WEB’s. ;D ;D ;D giofranchi

hellsten, pardon my ignorance, but whose quote is the one below? "You do things when the opportunities come along. I've had periods in my life when I've had a bundle of ideas come along, and I've had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I'll do something. If not, I won't do a damn thing." It looks like something the great Henry Singleton might have said… but I guess it is someone else instead! :) Thank you, giofranchi

Q4 2012 Letter to Shareholders, with a discussion about the new investment in Herbalife. giofranchi Third-Point-Q4-2012-Investor-Letter-TPOI.pdf

Sportgamma, I have “surfed” your website: very interesting, congratulations! I am curious: why did you write “I am skeptical about stories and with using the past to predict the future”? I can understand that stories might just be temporary fads… but the past? Isn’t the study of past history useful? Isn’t the study of past human behavior useful? I am reading the latest by Mr. Marks and he starts like this: I also put great emphasis on the study of history. giofranchi

Interview with Mr. Felix Zulauf: http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/FMS-Interview-with-Felix-Zulauf.php giofranchi

Kiron Sarkar's 2013 Forecast. giofranchi 2013_Forecast.pdf

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/01/online-learning-en-masse/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29 giofranchi

Entering into 2013. giofranchi entering-into-2013-part1.pdf entering-into-2013-part2.pdf

Thank you Joel, hope someday we will be partners in OAK! ;) giofranchi

On the contrary giofranchi!! You do not sound deferential -- you sound sincere. And, it was your sincerity, I think, that prompted me to mention you. So, if anyone was being deferential, it was me being so to you. Frankly, while we're on the topic, your writing has been excellent on investing and your approach and thinking about owner-operators fits with much of how I try to invest. So, thanks to you as well! Kiltacular and rjstc, really too kind of you! My financial knowledge clearly cannot even try to match Parsad’s, twacowfca’s, or Ross812’s. Anyway, I hope to bring a little perspective from the point of view of a business owner, who generates (a little) fcf and aims at making the best use of it. :) giofranchi

Joel, thank you very much for posting this! I will read it as soon as possibile! I have already noticed two things: 1) You finally decided not to invest in OAK: no plan to do so in the future either? 2) No cash at all in your portfolio: as long as you can find some bargains, you plan to always stay 100% invested, regardless of the general market price level? Thank you very much and congratulations! giofranchi

Well, I really hate to sound too deferential… But I think there is a reason for it: twacowfca made me know very well LRE, which I do believe will proceed with making a lot of money for my firm in the years ahead. And he did that completely for free! Maybe, I expressed my gratitude too emphatically… But I don’t really care. It seems to me the least thing I could do! ;) giofranchi

writser, you brought up a good point with the Shell example. But that’s just an example. Many situations might be different. Think, for instance, about your cash reserves: let’s say a company has listed shares only denominated in USD. And you are waiting for a good entry point, maybe 50% below the actual price… Ok, 50% is way too much, but it just simplifies the math: with 1 Euro right now you could buy 2 shares, instead with 1 Euro you want to buy 4 shares. Now the market experiences a 50% correction and your stock just follows the market down the same amount. If the exchange rate EURUSD is unchanged, you actually meet your objective of buying 4 shares of the company with 1 Euro. On the other hand, if the USD strengthened against the Euro (like it usually happens during a market correction), let’s say the USD is up 25% against the Euro, with 1 Euro you can now buy just 3 shares of the company. Had you put your cash reserves in USD, instead of keeping them in Euros, after a 50% decline in the stock price, you would be able to buy 4 shares. So, one way you end up owning only 3 shares of the company, the other way you end up owning 4 shares. Currencies do matter. giofranchi

A little bit dated, but still interesting articles, to get a sense of Mr. Ergen's strategy. giofranchi Dish_Network_aims_for_smarter_phones_simpler_bills.pdf Pursuit_of_wireless_spectrum_raises_possibilities_for_Dish_Network.pdf

Well, it surely might! But I don’t know anything about electric cars… and I don’t invest in a company I know nothing about, just because someone I admire has invested… Most of the times for the worse: I didn’t invest in BAC, though everybody else suggested me to do so, because I couldn’t find the time to dig deep enough into BAC! >:( Vice versa, I think I know a thing or two about value investing. ;) And also Fosun International is denominated in HKD. If I had to choose, I would invest in Fosun. But I am not in a hurry to do so. I will study carefully what they do and keep them monitored for a long time. Then, if I really like what I see, and the right opportunity comes, I will finally pull the trigger. giofranchi

Eric Sprott on paper vs physical gold: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-05/sprott-and-biderman-paper-vs-physical-gold giofranchi

Mr. David Hay on the importance of the currency in which investments are denominated. giofranchi 588_eva1.4.13na.pdf

Chairman Bernanke's childhood: http://www.viewfromtheblueridge.com/2013/01/05/chairman-bernankes-childhood/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+viewfromtheblueridge%2FJkgK+%28The+View+from+the+Blue+Ridge%29 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D giofranchi

I have found the following valuation of DISH Network: http://www.wikiwealth.com/research:dish It seems to be accurate and well done: there is a “short term rating”, based on a DCF analysis, and a “long term rating”, based on a SWOT analysis. Furthermore, there is a “Comparative Multiple Analysis”, a “Buffett” analysis, and the calculation of its WACC. Anyone knows wiki wealth? Do you think it is a reliable source of information? Thank you! giofranchi

- James Grant, via The View from the Blue Ridge giofranchi

NOV's CEO has just been elected Morningstar's CEO of the year: giofranchi

Well, it is actually possible that they might merge in the future! ;) giofranchi

I'm sorry I don't understand your point - but I've heard similar things from many people smarter than me so there must be something there. My naieve thinking is that, if over the course of one's life one's standard of living will be paid for 90%+ in USD (living in the US, buying services in the US, etc.), wouldn't one want to be very concentrated in USD? I've spent 10 or 20k euros in my life, a couple 100k yen, a handful of pounds, loonies, kroners, francs, and some Afghanis. And waaaay more USD. Figure my currency concentration should match the spend profile. Olmsted, if I tell you that I live in Italy and that all my firm’s investments are nonetheless USD denominated… do you think I am agreeing with your point of view… or disagreeing?! ??? giofranchi Sorry, That was way too hermetic… ;D What I mean is this: if the companies I like the best are in the US, I don’t care if my spending profile is in Euro. On the other hand, I agree with you that, if I lived in the US, all my investments would be USD denominated! Hope now it is clearer! giofranchi

I'm sorry I don't understand your point - but I've heard similar things from many people smarter than me so there must be something there. My naieve thinking is that, if over the course of one's life one's standard of living will be paid for 90%+ in USD (living in the US, buying services in the US, etc.), wouldn't one want to be very concentrated in USD? I've spent 10 or 20k euros in my life, a couple 100k yen, a handful of pounds, loonies, kroners, francs, and some Afghanis. And waaaay more USD. Figure my currency concentration should match the spend profile. Olmsted, if I tell you that I live in Italy and that all my firm’s investments are nonetheless USD denominated… do you think I am agreeing with your point of view… or disagreeing?! ??? giofranchi