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giofranchi

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Everything posted by giofranchi

  1. http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2015/05/15/11-numbers-showing-india-has-a-long-way-to-go-to-become-the-next-china/ Gio
  2. Hosington Management Q1 2015 Review and Outlook Gio HIM2015Q1NP.pdf
  3. This is a 180 pages long novel about every conceivable mistake the average man can do in both his personal and professional life. If Munger’s warning “All I want to know is where I am going to die so that I might never go there” resonates with you, [amazonsearch]Everyman[/amazonsearch] is a novel you don’t want to miss! Cheers, Gio
  4. Probably, Watsa is comparing what’s given away issuing 1.15 million shares to what is gained, therefore he is dividing the $4 billion portfolio of investments only by 1.15 million of new shares… Just a guess! ;) Gio
  5. A good enough article from Seeking Alpha was posted on the thread "Is it time to buy Fairfax again" just a few days ago. Cheers, Gio
  6. Fantastic quotes! :) Thank you very much, Gio
  7. --Charlie Munger --Warren Buffett Gio
  8. https://fundooprofessor.wordpress.com:443/2015/05/17/seven-patterns/ Cheers, Gio
  9. I think there are multiple reasons, but the most important one imo is because he is very bright at allocating capital. Generally, people are not. Even very successful people who excel in their field of endeavor. And when they meet someone who is as capable as Buffett at allocating capital, they gladly follow him/her. Furthermore, Buffett is intelligent enough to give them complete freedom in whatever they do best, he says: do whatever you feel is right to achieve great results, then when it comes to capital allocation just leave it to me. Why not? Cheers, Gio
  10. Aberhound, Watsa has prepared Fairfax to thrive in an environment with the following characteristics: 1) Stocks go down and stay down for a long time (with equity hedges that appreciate more than the decline in their portfolio of equities), 2) Treasury yields keep going down (with the 10yr bond yield approaching 1%), 3) And deflation setting in. If this environment never materializes, Fairfax will make some money imo, but not much. Therefore, it is simple enough: do you think 1) + 2) + 3) might ever come to pass? Or do you think there is no risk at all? If the answer is: no risk at all, then stay away from Fairfax right now. Cheers, Gio
  11. Ah! The great thing is that what applies to happiness also applies to time and space! ;) It is just that relativity, when applied to happiness is so much more intuitive than when applied to time and space… Because we experience it every day, like your article clearly explains. Gio
  12. [amazonsearch]The Elegant Universe[/amazonsearch] For those who are interested in the qualitative ideas behind Special and General Relativity, Quantum Mechanics, and String Theory, without the heavy to digest mathematics that underpin those theories, [amazonsearch]The Elegant Universe[/amazonsearch] is a very good read. And I am enjoying it a lot! Cheers, Gio
  13. --Miyamoto Musashi, a 16th-century samurai who had over 60 confirmed kills with a sword. A quote I have found in the April 2015 issue of MAXIM!! ;D ;D Cheers, Gio
  14. Ahahah!!!! Great quote!! ;D Cheers, Gio
  15. The way I see it Watsa has built FFH to thrive in an environment in which we will have both very low stock prices and very low bond yields. That’s a very rare occurrence, and the last two times it happened were in the US during the ‘30s and in Japan during the ‘90s. Otherwise, like Buffett and Tepper say, very low bond yields justify higher stock prices. If the environment Watsa is preparing for never materializes, FFH won’t compound at 15% annual for many years to come… Its results might be much lower than that! So what would I do? 1) If you are sure that the environment Watsa is preparing for will never materialize, I would invest only in FIH. 2) If you are sure the environment Watsa is preparing for will materialize, I would invest only in FFH. 3) If you have no certainties regarding the environment Watsa is preparing for, like me, I would invest both in FFH and in FIH. Cheers, Gio
  16. Maybe… But I am not convinced. Therefore, I hold both FFH, which will perform satisfactorily if Watsa and Gross are right, and other stocks, which will perform well if Watsa and Gross are wrong. Imo in this environment certainties might turn out to be very costly. Well, if you’re referring to India, I think India’s economic environment is quite different from the rest of the world: low level of debt, great demographic trends, an infrastructure system that is still underdeveloped. India’s stock market might be overpriced right now, like all the rest, and that’s why FIH’s assets are still in cash + bonds. That will change when true opportunities present themselves. Cheers, Gio
  17. --Bill Gross That's what also Watsa talked about during the FFH AGM: "not another Lehman crash, but a crush of perpetual bull market enthusiasm"... Stock prices that go down and stay down for a long period of time. Cheers, Gio Bill_Gross_Investment_Outlook_May_2015.pdf
  18. Cheers, Gio First-Quarter-2015-Interim-Report.pdf
  19. Q1 2015 Results Gio PRFIH-FIH-announces-net-earnings-of-4mn-dollor-in-the-first-quarter-of-2015.pdf
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