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giofranchi

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Posts posted by giofranchi

    AMZN Valuation Poll

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I find that it is extremely difficult to value platform cos which have reached huge scale and are still growing their networks very rapidly. I also think they are among the highest quality cos today, and are led by some of the smartest businessmen. Therefore, I hold a basket of them that I have put together at much lower prices. They have outperformed for many years, and it is very likely that they will slow down, at least in the short term.

     

    Cheers,

     

    Gio

    2017 results thread

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    The equity of my company was up +16.85% in 2017.

    10% from retained earnings + 6.85% from investments.

     

    The EUR ended the year up +13.5% against the USD, therefore my investments have performed roughly in line with the general market.

     

    This of course is irrelevant and I must acknowledge another year of poor performance.

     

    In 2018 I expect the operations of my company to perform in line with 2017, while I don’t know what to expect from my investments. The market is clearly overheated, a correction of 20% or more is plausible, I don’t short, I don’t hold investments that are uncorrelated with the general market... If I had to guess, 2018 is very much shaping like another year of disappointment.

     

    Cheers,

     

    Gio

    Italy's Popolare Vicenza sells 9 pct of insurer Cattolica to Berkshire Hathaway

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    http://www.reuters.com/article/brief-italys-popolare-vicenza-sells-9-pc/brief-italys-popolare-vicenza-sells-9-pct-of-insurer-cattolica-to-berkshire-hathaway-idUSI6N1M301Y

     

    http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/books/'the-era-of-uncertainty'-by-francois-trahan-and-katherine-krantz/msg84152/#msg84152

     

    "Well, actually we can always believe that modern countries cannot default, and we can always assume that Italians will all become Germans… then, yes!, everything will be OK and Cattolica Assicurazioni is a great bargain! ???

     

    giofranchi"

     

    Yes, well... Of course I might be wrong, but I still don't like Cattolica and the fact Buffett invested 0,04% of BRK's equity in that company doesn't strike me as a very reliable vote of confidence... But the market seems to think differently and has received the news with much enthusiasm! Good for Cattolica's shareholders, and I wish them the best of luck.

     

    Cheers,

     

    Gio

     

    "The Inevitable" by Kevin Kelly

    in Books

    Posted

    If you haven't read "What Technology Wants" by him it is also excellent.  He takes an evolutionary view of technical progress which is fascinating to read when he lays it all out.  It makes you look at the past and the future in a different way.

     

    Thank you,

    I'll surely check it out!

     

    Cheers,

     

    Gio

    "The Inevitable" by Kevin Kelly

    in Books

    Posted

    "The Inevitable - Understanding the 12 Technological Forces that Will Shape Our Future" by Kevin Kelly:

     

    I am not yet half through it, but this book is already one of the most interesting and useful I have read recently.

     

    Here you find some excerpts so far:

     

     

    Cheers,

     

    Gio

    FFH share price

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    How often does in hit the top and bottom ranges? once per year?  Do you trade around 20%-30% of your position? I have done that with other names myself.

     

    Yes, I guess that might be approximately correct.

    Right now I prefer to hold a diversified portfolio of stocks and etfs. But for many years I was much more concentrated, basically because at times FFH was 30%-35% of my portfolio. And that’s why when FFH traded close to 1.4xBVPS I probably sold more than 20%-30% of my position. Sometimes FFH has gone from 35% of my portfolio to 15%, which means I have sold more than 50% of my position. On the other hand, at a minimum of 15% FFH has always remained a meaningful position in my portfolio during the last 5-7 years.

    Of course, results have not been spectacular, but I would say they have been satisfactory enough.

     

    Right now my position in FFH is much smaller than 15%: as I have said, it is not because I think their business prospects have deteriorated, but because I don’t want to let any position of mine influence the overall results of my portfolio too much.

     

    Cheers,

     

    Gio

    FFH share price

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    Edit: I've been on the sidelines for about 5 years now and price down to where it was then.

     

    True.

    On the other hand, during the last 5 years I have made good money in FFH, increasing my position while it was trading near 1.1xBVPS and lightening my position up while it was trading near 1.4xBVPS. If something similar happens in the future, buying at current levels might turn out to be quite profitable.

     

    Cheers,

     

    Gio

    FFH share price

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    It is not really the hedges that are a problem, it is the difference between their stock selection and the hedges that is/was the problem.  If their equities had done as well as the S&p and Russel , it wouldn't have hurt that much.

     

    But I am buying now. I do believe they have taken a radical but briliant decision to sell all their bonds a week before Trump. Some positions have gone up strongly in recent months.  What you get is a good insurer with lots of cash , not too far from book anymore.  In these rather expensive markets I believe FFH is one of the better propositions.  And if in the coming years they find good opportunities to reinvest the cash, it could be a very strong performer with book value going up and much higher p/b ratio.

     

    +1

     

    Cheers,

     

    Gio

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