hyten1

premfan, i don't want to speak for eric but i don't think its about valuation, many stock went up 2, 3 or 4 times, or are undervalue by 50% or more. at the end of the day whatever the stock you think is undervalue its about taking advantage of the opportunity, having conviction with your analysis/idea and go big when the opportuntiy is right just my humble opinion hy

its Arnold Rothstein, i happen to know because of boardwalk empire, while watching the show i would search for the various characters to see how they are in real life. arnold was a famous gambler and good one at that

man eric i am speechless

its amazing we are talking about these numbers and this issue lets not stop until more members of this board can start contemplating these numbers ... that includes me :) hy

eric, trying run thourgh under which scenarios would this "constructive sale exception" be useful?

eric, haa, one part i got it wrong i thought you don't pay tax on the $5 gain, i guess you do. hmmm, that make this less attractive :), i long for the good old days when you can hold the hedge indefinitely so i guess this is useful in cases when you want to hedge (lock in your gain), your hedge can either lose or gain that is the cost of the hedge, but then after the hedge you are back to square one. hmmm, less useful, still thinking under what scenarios would this be of use. hy

so lets say you use this constructive sale exception lets say BAC pops sometime this year, let just say it goes to $20 (but you still want to hold the stock for long term), you decide to lock in some gain, yet at the same time you don't want to pay capital gains tax you can than sale short BAC sometime this year, lets say you sold short at $20 (and you have 1000 shares). - You bought 1000 BAC for a cost base of $5 in 2011 - $5000 - You sold short BAC in Dec 31 2013 at $20 - $20,000 - You close your short on Jan 10th (before Jan 30th) of 2014, let say stock drops to $15, you have a $5 per share gain - You keep on holding you BAC after 60 days pass Jan 30th of 2014 when you close your short in this senarios you have took out gain of approx $5,000, but you now have to reset your holding period for the stock you hold for BAC to Jan 10th (which can be good or bad depending on what you want) and you don't pay any capital gains tax (your cost base for BAC is still at $5, however your holding is reset to Jan 10th 2014). i hope i got this right?

some info on constructive sales http://www.fool.com/school/taxes/1999/taxes990723.htm

SharperDingaan, i am trying to understand you comment "That now deep-in-the-money call you sold has value, but no market, & bankers are not going to lend against it." i assume you mean if the call option you sold is now deep in the money, along with the sold call you can buy the underlying stock to cover the call instead of buying back the call? Why would you need to do that if you are deep in the money with the sold call? or are you refering to if the sold call has not gone your way so instead of buying back the call (which can be expensive if the option doesn't have much volume) you can just buy the stock instead to cover the sold call? sorry if i misunderstood something, just trying to understand what you meant. hy

Parsad don't you think its a little premature to say bill is dead i think he shorted when the price was higher than now (i can be wrong). obviously this story is not over, we don't know for sure yet who is right who is wrong. but i hear ya, short can be dangerous. and if the enemies of bill decide to buy out hlf, each pitch in few hundred million ... that would be very painful for bill EDIT: they are both (carl and bill) smart man, i am sure carl have already made his money and somehow lock in his gain, yet just waiting for bill to crumble. hy

rukawa another good place to look at all the banks is bankprobe.com

nice

i guess the quesiton are 1. can 50%+ be done (i think we all agree it can) 2. how long can it be sustain (who knows 5, 10, 15 yrs?) 3. what type of investment - this is where it gets interesting. i think you can achieve the 50%+ with all kinds/type of investments (small, big, special situation, micro cap whatever). In addition to the type of investment (i honestly it can be done with all kinds of stuff), another important question is what you do with the investment. for me personally i have tons of sock in retrospect can use to achieve 50%+, its a matter of how many share bought, how long it was held, when it was bought/sold, was leverage use (options etc) etc. so i guess what i am getting at is, its not just the type of investment (small cap, large cap) there are many other things like how concentrate are you, what you did with the investment, was leverage use etc etc.

benncycx at the end of the day no one knows (this is just my opinion and yours), from knowing what buffets says and does i don't think he was exaggerating about his statement that he can do 50%+ if he manage small amount of money (also remember he never said when he will stop guarantee making 50%+) when was the last time buffett exaggerated about some sort of performance # (nothing that i am aware of) let alone about something that he would do, let alone saying "he guarantee it" to say he didn't do it in his early days so he can't possible do it is a bit simple. I am sure buffett as a investor now is miles ahead of that guy back in the 50's also buffett rarely make statement like this, something along similar lines was back in 2008 or was it 2009 when WFC was in the 9's. he said very frankly unambiguesly, he would put ALL his money into WFC at 9's if he could. when i hear that i was shocked, because he rarely make statement like that in REAL TIME as it happens. Rarely make statement of these types ALSO not to put ERICOPOLY down, but i am sure if you ask eric his compounded performance is prob over 50%, if not very close. NOW if someone on this board can achieve it, you think one of the best investor ever can't?! EDIT: honestly buffet knowing him prob has already done it in his personal portfolio

yesterdays conference bill ackman spoke about bkw Harbor Investment Conference

another interesting article related to great depression and stock market http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/your-money/stocks-and-bonds/26stra.html?_r=1&

at the end of the day, its finding value, if you don't find it, stay in cash its harder said than done :)

nothing saying either way (get out or pile on the stock market) but one important note just a reminder (I know everyone already knows this) we all know that most of the gain for an investment are achieve during fraction of the holding period. hy

plan nice

i have look at auto very interesting, however the vol is just so low very hard to accumulate any sort of position

was stock over prices in 1929? http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2013/02/how-overpriced-were-stocks-in-1929.html interesting info

maybe we should put a column for when the doc are posted? that would be helpful to know when certain docs are avail

wow hmmm i am only at 15% cash from 5% a month ago

ackman claim is simple, bam is gaining "control" of ggp without the typical control premium you'll pay if you acquire a company

a little piss off how bam is slowly taking control of ggp