blainehodder
-
Posts
421 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by blainehodder
-
-
"We" think the use of collective pronouns to describe a single persons thoughts on a topic to add some sort of air of superiority actually hurts "our" investment thesis.
Perhaps "they" are just out to get "us" and "our" genius ideas, and that is why "our" stock picks aren't going up.
-
I kind of thought buybacks were driving it up at the close from 700-770. Here it seems like a reversion where one or two big players are using that price bump to get out.
Or someone knows something.
Or it is random stochastic movement.
Who knows?
Narratives are fun but not useful. I added at 700 today.
-
Wading into garbage at a "cheap" valuation is not a strategy a fairly heavily concentrated investor should pursue yet we see it time and again.
If you are going to buy the bottom of the barrel, you need to diversify, as you never know which ones will rocket and which will fade away. An at least moderately diversified approach to capturing market anomalies is much more likely to do well over time.
-
Church and Dwight. Won't happen at today's price though.
-
It would probably be a good idea for you to post compensation ranges for the position.
-
TSLA puts. Yup Im crazy.
-
His argument on taxes is that a) the players should and will play the game as best they can, and b) the rules need to be improved.
Nothing inconsistent about it. He isn't going to forgo personal tax savings because he wants rich people to pay more in taxes. That won't make a difference.
He wants the rules changed so all rich pay more in taxes. Don't hate the player, hate the game
-
Ben Bridge Jeweler, Borsheims, Kraft-Heinz, Fruit of the Loom.
-
Getting ready to do this myself. Self-publishing is the way to go. You write the book in Word and then a few clicks later it's published.
I have an editor who I work with on other material, he's working with me on this material.
I also have a following that has indicated interest in the subject matter. There aren't any books targeting what I wrote about either.
With that said I have zero delusions that I can make any serious money on this. My goal is to sell a few thousand copies, if I were to even sell 1,000 that'd be successful. Something like 80% or 90% of self-published authors fail to sell more than a few hundred books.
I look at a book as the best business card you can have. Createspace allows the author to buy the book essentially at Amazon's cut. Amazon still gets their pound of flesh, but that's it. My plan is to buy boxes of books and hand them out like candy. Another long-game idea is to work with colleges. I read about this strategy and I am thinking of trying it. What you do is advertise to college professors. You tell them that if they have their class read it you'll speak (via skype or in person if it's local) for free. This is a long game because you're making yourself known to people who aren't professionals yet. But it's the same reason that Microsoft gave out (gives) Office to college kids for $10. They become hooked for life.
Have you written the book yet? It's quite the undertaking. I write a lot. I have a blog (username.com) where I've written over 2,000 pages of material. I have a newsletter that's another 600 pages. And yet writing 200 specific and focused pages about a single topic was difficult. It's difficult because you need to be mindful of the flow over the entire book. You can't write it at once, you need to write it in pieces. It's hard to build the flow, cross reference other things and move the narrative forward. This is where an editor is excellent, they help with this.
What do you plan on writing about?
I'll end with a fun publishing story. I was on a plane a few months back sitting on the aisle row. There was a man at the window engrossed in some book. The book didn't seem to fit him, i.e. it was a pop-ish looking book, and he looked like a 50 yr old engineer. A woman sat in the middle seat. About halfway through the flight she took out some book, started to read it. The man at the window kept looking over at her. Once the flight landed and we were waiting to exit he said "Do you like that book?" She responded "I do, surprisingly." And he said "I'm the publisher. I didn't think it would sell but we took a chance on it. It's surprised me." They talked about some story line point that was iffy for him and that was it. It made sense why the book he was reading didn't fit him, he wasn't reading for pleasure, but likely evaluating new material. It was a fun encounter.
Whats the book about Nate? I enjoy your writing and could be a future customer.
-
Personally I don't believe it makes sense to wipe the common. Wiping common tells prospective capital providers (that will be needed) that they can and will be pillaged by the gov at will with no repercussions. And what does that achieve vs giving the existing holders 20% crumbs? I think the risk/return on the common is much more attractive.
That also completely ignores the rule of law.
-
https://twitter.com/JaredALevine/status/851912080420732929
They are getting 11k...after another delay?
-
I can't see that happening though. Why go through steps to change parts of the NWS when the entire amendment has to be addressed?
To buy time. It is an easy band-aid solution that pushes the need to address the whole debacle until after tax reform bills.
-
While not stopping the sweep short term is disappointing that isn't the end game we are looking for which will ultimately be reform. Would have been a great sign from Mnuchin none the less.
Congress is clearly worried something is brewing at treasury/FhFA. Contrast the sentiment compared to even 6 months ago. Not long ago Corker went on CNBC saying he would short FnF and now he is asking them to not stop the sweep and act unilaterally.
Warner also spoke out against Mnuchin at his confirmation hearing as he did not trust him to not act unilaterally on housing reform. Corker, Warner et al have lost the upper hand. We just need Mnuchin/Watt to do what we all want them to do, until then we sit and wait.
Corker also writes "Perhaps congress determines it is appropriate to recapitalize significant restructured enterprises as part of a comprehensive approach to housing finance reform."
Oh really Mr Corker? Now congress may recapitalize some version of FnF? Huh?
Doing so would have cost political capital. There was really no reason to suspend the payment before tax reform determines an immediate issue, and of priority right now is the budget and debt ceiling. To have come out of left field and forced conversation on housing reform now would have been counter-productive I think.
Besides, Corker has accomplished just as much with his apparent desperation. The market seems bored but this has been a good morning, imo.
There is of course the option to change to an annual div instead of quarterly. Gives the appearance of non suspension while building some cushion and buying time.
-
-
It is mostly hard to beat the index because the majority of index gains come from very few stocks. Most stocks lose money. If you are actively selecting stocks it is likely you will miss those winners.
If you closet index you will likely select the winners but have high fees.
Therefore it makes sense that few outperform the index. It is not the case that 50% of people should outperform and 50% should underperform with random concentrated stock selection given the distribution of stock gains is waited heavily to a small subsection of the index. In that scenario most should underperform with some really massive winning fund managers.
The momo effect of indexing also ensures you cut losses on nearly all stocks that go to zero and are invested in all stocks that compound value by default.
-
Anyone betting larger than 50% of their net worth into the preferred here?
If so, you better be prepared for the very serious possibility of vaporizing half of your wealth at the whims of the government.
-
"This was the pre-eminent brand when I was at college 15 years ago, yet here it is seemingly at risk of going under."
15 years ago is the key point. The company is no longer hip, and they can't seem to regain that mind share. I think it is in a death spiral and will follow Aeropostale and American Apparel.
I much prefer NKE, UA or LULU at today's prices. Not as cheap, but much less likely for sales to cliff dive.
Death spiral seems too strong a term. Aeropostale was heavily bleeding cash for 3 years before it went under, its brand was nowhere near as strong, it had no international exposure worth speaking about, gross margins were poor. Abercrombie is a much better business and a stronger brand. The positive free cash flow has only just went negative this year.
Fair enough. They are yet to enter a FCF/revenue death spiral, but unless they can regain a cool image, revenue will decline and the cash burn will accelerate. I think the best move here would be to wait for the turnaround to actually begin to turn.
-
"This was the pre-eminent brand when I was at college 15 years ago, yet here it is seemingly at risk of going under."
15 years ago is the key point. The company is no longer hip, and they can't seem to regain that mind share. I think it is in a death spiral and will follow Aeropostale and American Apparel.
I much prefer NKE, UA or LULU at today's prices. Not as cheap, but much less likely for sales to cliff dive.
-
https://old.ycombinator.com/munger.html
How do you get into these great companies? One method is what I'd call the method of finding them small get 'em when they're little. For example, buy Wal-Mart when Sam Walton first goes public and so forth. And a lot of people try to do just that. And it's a very beguiling idea. If I were a young man, I might actually go into it. -
But Nate, this is fuddy duddy value small cap stuff you keep talking about
Show me a 450b megacap ready to triple. -
The Magic formula component of my portfolio is up over 23% this year. Value is alive and well and the magicformula is still one of the simplest value quant strats out there.
-
-
Gets back to oddballs point: It is way more productive to read 100 simple companies' 5 page annual reports than a single BAC report,
-
Hey all:
Here in S.E Michigan, everything is literally crumbling & falling apart. This is no joke...
There are also tens of thousands of houses/buildings that need to be torn down.
The roads are easily the worst in the country. Many bridges/overpasses are literally falling apart. They have netting attached so that if a piece falls off, it wont' damage a vehicle pedestrian. I've also started to notice wrappings around support pillars too.
I also have a friend who is an engineer in the water works for the city of Detroit. He says that a shocking percentage of water mains/pipes are 100+ years old. Some of these things were supposed to be replaced 30 years ago.
So you've got a post-apocalyptic landscape with crumbling roads and water/sewer pipes.
You could have an army of 10,000 workers in the tri-county area working non-stop for YEARS to fix the infrastructure. Yet, unemployment remains very high here. I just don't get it...So much work NEEDS to be done, but we've got so many people just laying about...
And debt issues to hire them can be monetized without any real worry of inflation. A real shame.
Compounder ideas please
in General Discussion
Posted
80% $TQQQ, 20% $TMF and no really ugly bear markets. Could do 20%-25% CAGR.