bearprowler6

Not the personal attacks! That was on you! I started yesterday by putting out a viewpoint on the recent drawdown in Fairfax's shares. Conventional value investing viewpoint...no... but that was the point. Doing so seemed to really upset you and a few others on here. Like I said yesterday it is easy to be brave and say you are a long term investor when you are 5 months into a sell off. Talk to me in 5+ years if the situation remains unchanged and I am confident you will be singing a different tune. I am signing off from here for now. Will no longer post on this issue or any others for the next long while. Nothing has changed about this board with rare exception and you ain't the exception. Take care everyone.

I will never start it but I will also never back down either. If he stops so will I. I apologize to you and others on here for getting involved with this issue in this way.

Your an easy read 73 Reds. Guys like you are a dime a dozen. Think they know everything and not open to alternative viewpoints or pushback. Very fragile egos! As for my wife... I care very much what she thinks. You should try it with yours sometime if you even have one.

I don't need to come out of retirement but why don't you keep focused and keep your head down and some day you to may achieve the level of success that I did. BTW...Morningstar is a fine organization and you would have no chance of getting employed by them.

I have never held Alibaba...not sure where that rumour got started? I have held Power Corporation (POW) and TD Bank (TD) for longer than I have held Fairfax but only longer by a couple of years. Other longer term holdings albeit not as long as these first 3 are: Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP.UN), Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP.UN) as well as Enbridge (ENB) and TC Energy (TRP).

and your point is what? I have acknowledged that Fairfax's IV is higher than the current share price and that IV has been growing nicely. The gap between share price and IV has widened this year with no evidence that it will narrow any time soon.

Based on the length of the prior hard market, the capital that has recently entered the market, the benign cat losses, and my discussions with industry executives including my next door neighbour who is a senior executive for one of the world's largest reinsurance brokers. Why do you think/hope otherwise?

Worth? More than it is currently trading at now however I do not believe we will ever get to the actual worth or IV of the company unless Prem decides to liquidate. Which is not going to happen. Also, I am concerned that this drawdown will last longer than most expect.

I am 66 and have been fully retired since I was 54. Because of our investment success my wife was able to fully retire one year earlier at 53. My Fairfax position sizing is right for me at about 8-9% of my overall portfolio even after this drawdown. I have been a long time shareholder )since Nov/99) with an average cost base of $211.80 CAD. Screaming for 2 times book? Today they were suggesting 4 times book is in sight? Ridiculous. I decide to take on all the hard core value investors on this board today because I know that numerous new investors into Fairfax (bought in in the last 3-5 years) have only seen upside but us longer term shareholders know the dark side. A few brave souls supported what I was trying to accomplish today and one or two even suggested I was onto something because they had let their Fairfax portfolio sizing grow too large and are now after the 20% sell off are regretting not addressing this sooner.

4 times BV was a different time for this company. Can it happen again? Sure! Will it happen again? Highly unlikely! We should all be thankful if we get to 1.75 or 2 which as things are structured currently is not in the cards!

What you call "hand waving nonsense" is a list of reasons why Fairfax will not achieve the P/E or Price/Book multiples that other you and others on here think it should. Tracking intrinsic value is key and Fairfax's IV has gone up nicely but the market will not reward it as you think it should because of all these issues.

Its a list of reasons why Fairfax as a stock never reaches the great heights you value guys think it should achieve.

I appreciate this question. I do believe that Fairfax is in a better position today than probably at any time in its history however more work needs to be done. The core team is aging and although a good bench has been developing behind them we do not know how they will perform when the core team is no longer there. I mentioned earlier that I believe the soft market is behind much of Fairfax's weak share price this year. This issue is largely out of their control. Yes they can position their book to not take on foolish risks in a soft pricing environment however that will not insulate the company entirely from market conditions. The TRS on their own shares is also troublesome. Many posters on here were pounding the table almost begging them to reduce this holding worried about exactly what has taken place. Its a self fulfilling accelerating downward spiral when the share price starts to drop. Many of their legacy investments have been cleaned up but others are still on their books. I view Fairfax as having a weak sell discipline when it comes to cutting their losses. I hope that changes going forward. And Fairfax India.. its the airport... the rest is irrelevant and should be disposed of. This issue was discussed a few months back so no need to rehash here. Governance issues also persist with Prem's kids on the Board? Are these the best available candidates? I would also like debt levels to come down. Hard to do in a soft market and with having to buy back the minority positions of several of their insurance holdings (e.g., Allied World). I could go on however this should give you a sense of my concerns. There is a reason the market is unwilling to reward Fairfax with high price to book multiple and it has nothing to do with the market not knowing about the company or not understanding its business model.

Old...I'm am 66...so certainly getting there. Angry...not at all! If the question makes no sense to you then you need to think a little harder. Are you capable of doing that? Brave talk that you don't care if the share price stays down for 5+ years given we are 6 months in. Blindly believing Fairfax will work out is foolish and the sign of someone with not a lot of money or investment acuman.

Many current investors into Fairfax have bought in in the last 4-5 tears and have only known the good times. This years' unexpected price decline, which no one predicted, has caused a few long time posters on here to raise a few good and very valid questions. These tended to be older individuals who now who a very large amount of Fairfax stock both in dollar amount and percentage terms. In discussing this years performance with their spouses, which is the right thing to do in my view, they struggled to really explain why it happened which is a difficult situation. I then posed the question, if the recovery take more than 5 years what are they thinking about doing now? This question seems to really upset a number of you here. I suggest you should be reflecting on this question far more than you are rather spouting out the usual talking points about intrinsic value because at some point it will be a very valid question for you and your family and based on what you wrote you will fail them miserably.

I love you guys that blindly quote this stuff. Life is far more nuanced. At some point you will learn.

You should not be recommending for anyone to buy more of any security since you don't know their circumstances. Suggesting the best approach in all cases is to buy more when your favorite stock is down is over simplifying a very complex and nuanced situation.

And those who had to sell (deaths, divorce, funding business needs etc) Berkshire during 1999-2000 never benefited from the recovery.

Fairfax has never been loved by the market. The reasons have been discussed numerous times on this board by you and others. I believe the main reason for the downturn in Fairfax's share price is due to the soft market. No one know when that will change. No one, predicted what has happened to Fairfax share price this year. No one. So my question is simple. If the soft market lasts for longer than most of us want and if that is the main reason for the share price weakness as I suspect it is then do shareholders feel comfortable holding Fairfax and waiting it out? Especially for those 65+, would it perhaps not be better to redeploy the capital elsewhere?

Happy Birthday in advance. My home is worth about the same. It seems many on this board are very uncomfortable with discussing these very valid issues. Whether Fairfax is in an uptrend or a downtrend I believe we all need to address what to do with our holdings on a regular basis. We owe that to ourselves, to our families and ultimately to our heirs. If Fairfax, is in one of its extended sideways periods (I don't know whether it is or not) then it is very reasonable to ask yourself the question whether the funds should be deployed elsewhere to benefit those that rely on us.

Unbelievable. I said nothing about selling. I am very comfortable with the weighting and do not expect to take any action. I was simply following up on posts from Crip1 and cwericb, both long time posters on here, who raised a few issues. Many new investors to Fairfax have only enjoyed the ride up. I see the distinct possibility that things may stay down for an extended period of time. Holding this stock since 1999 has given me that perspective. Just so everyone knows where I am coming from. If Fairfax went to zero my life would not change at all. I have been fully retired from a senior investment position since I was 54 and am now 66. The questions I raised are valid and should be discussed. It seems to have hit a nerve with many of you which I feel is telling in itself.

Fair point. Personally my overall portfolio is structured very well with my ytd return being in excess of 13% despite my almost 9% weighting in Fairfax.

I accept that this is a possibility and a large repurchase of share at this point would seem timely. I am not calling a bottom. I am simply asking a very reasonable question that seems to hit a nerve with a number of posters here. I have held Fairfax since 1999. I have lived thru all of the events surrounding this company over the last 27 years of which there have been many. My average cost on the shares is just above $200 CAD. At 66 I am simply pondering whether any other approaches to buy and hold for the long term should be contemplated. Crip1 and cwericb seemed to be doing the same.

Its not a question of not understanding that stocks can drop 20%, 30% or more. The question I posed is now that such an unexpected drop has occurred in what is likely an oversized position in many portfolios held by members on this board what should/will they do next? The response to this question will vary greatly by personal circumstances including age, marital status, overall net worth , cash flow needs etc. Someone 30, with a great job and having bought into Fairfax 6 years ago at the covid bottom should arguably respond differently than someone who is 70+, retired, married and for sake of argument in failing health.