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longlake95

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Posts posted by longlake95

  1. I guess I'm not shocked as to how low the median net worth numb's are, with so much conspicuous consumption. My NW is way, way, above the median, and compounding at 15.4% p.a. since 1997. I find it funny when people tell me, i'm good with money. I just spend less the I earn and invest the rest and don't try to keep up with the Jones', who are always one month from insolvency, but drive nice cars. ;)

     

     

  2. Probably, as the cheap oil gone. Unconventional oil is simply more $$$ to explore and develop. Go forward ( next several decades) the efficient companies are going to rise to the top, as opposed to anybody with a drill bit, making money in oil.

    Bigger will likely be better.

     

    LL

  3. Cardboard +1

     

    I too, am a believer that a pipeline solution will appear. I have no idea whether it will be N/S or E/W, but the pressure it too great, not to ship land locked oil out of Canada. The diff won't be wide forever.

  4. This is how I gauge where we are in the bull/bear cycle. Ya, it's simple, but that's why I like it: the 4 stages.

     

    Templeton: "Bull-markets are born on pessimism (1), grow on skepticism(2), mature on optimism(3) and die on euphoria.(4)"

     

    stage  1 was 2009-2010, stage 2 2011- now, maybe we are close to starting stage 3 - I'm not sure. But stage 3 could last a while when it does come. There will be corrections along the way, there always are, it's just normal filling and back filling.

    It gives us value guys opportunity - nothing more.

     

    LL

     

     

  5. Yup, I think with Helicopter Ben lands, people who have been reaching for yield will get whacked. I can't figure out how people can pay the kind of multiples they are paying and sleep at night. I feel light headed just writing about it, LOL.

     

    TRP - today's numbrs.

     

    Valuation Measures 

    Market Cap (intraday)5: 34.89B

    Enterprise Value (May 8, 2013)3: 56.77B

    Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 24.56

    Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2014)1: 19.50

    PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: 3.35

    Price/Sales (ttm): 4.11

    Price/Book (mrq): 2.14

    Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 6.70

    Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6: 13.72

     

     

  6. I read valueline every week (print version), scan new lows list and read a cople of papers per day. About once a month i do some simple screens to look for distressed areas of the market. Low p/E, low P/b, etc... I try to value at least one or two companies a week.

  7. ACW - accuride. I own it, and it's been painful - i was cleary early to this party. However, the company is improving. Winning new business - finally. Selling off some non-core divisions. A hedge fund recently announced a 14% stake. They just put one of their guys on the B of D. Another fund owns a 6% stake. ACW directly serves the class 7 and 8 market.

     

    ACW is no Cummings or Paccar, it's definately an average ( maybe a below average  ;) ) business, but it's cheap.

     

     

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