BTShine
-
Posts
675 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by BTShine
-
-
My point is, reading Prem Watsa's letters, I get the feeling that the likelihood of another GD is something of order of 20% or 30% or something like that. He never mentioned the probabilities, but just reading between the lines that is what I would infer - maybe not the right interpretation. I think the odds are an order of magnitude lower.
Vinod
This is an important point - thank you for making it.
Just mentioning some scary (or bullish) outcomes without attaching odds is a very bad practice, whether intentional or not.
Investors often become enamored with the magnitude of certain outcomes, but forget that odds are all important in investing.
Well said. It always strikes me when looking back at historical stock charts for the S&P, Dow, etc. that periods with 'big losses' often times had losses of 20-30%, and often they were erased by gains shortly after. Clearly, anything can happen, but the odds are usually that prices stay relatively stable.
-
He did say he's met with, and presented to, the Board of Directors. He also said he expects the SHLD cash drain to stop this year. That's big news IMO.
-
Currently we are far from a 50% correction.
-
It's the new training ground for becoming POTUS.
-
Great video. Thanks for posting!
It is confusing to see P/E used for many bubble companies, but cash flow for GM, etc. And, the GM numbers (on a cursory glance) look to be $10-$13 Billion in Operating Cash Flow, but only $3-$5 Billion of Free Cash Flow.
Not looking to start a debate on GM, etc. as I certainly need to look more into the details.
Cheers!
-
What about Seritage? Was it purchased by Ted or Todd?
Neither. It was purchased by Buffett personally. He wouldn't have to report his ownership stake, except his ownership percentage was above the 5% threshold, which means he had to tell the world he owned shares in SRG.
-
Looks like that SHLD real estate might be worth something after all. 8)
-
Fascinating and troubling
-
When I saw that filing my thoughts were they arbitraged
-
Bruce Berkowitz is a huge net positive to society in my opinion. I understand zoning regs are generally good and meant to keep things in order, etc. and I've no clear assessment as to if his plans are reasonable in this respect, but it saddens me to see people criticize the man when he trying to bring more art into the world and be charitable.
-
BTShine,
Thanks for your feedback. I was thinking that the potential customers are not actually, people who travel once every year to Omaha. I was thinking of those millions of consultants, who pass their hotel bills to the client, and they don't get anything out of it. If they choose to share their expensive rooms, they get 50% of the money for themselves.
It just my thinking, obviously. But reality could turn out to be different.
In the case where you’re passing on the cost to a client, reselling part of it as you’re describing here sounds like fraud.
Yeah, I'm not advocating this and it could be fraudulent if your employer or client asked you not to resell any unused space. I'm not sure if it's moral, fair, etc but I do think the opportunity exists on a small scale for this business. Regarding fraud Uber didn't obey the laws and many could say they're they're providing illegal taxis that are ruining the lives of taxi drivers that have taken the exams, passed the tests, etc. but the reality is there's a business there and it's profitable so we are here to discuss at CoBF. It's morally more palatable than marketing cigarettes to young people. I'm just here to discuss ideas.
-
Roughlyright,
Good points.
The corporate angle is interesting. It made me think of a scenario my Dad encountered years ago with his business. He had many employees that travelled often working for him. In one case there was a guy and girl that both travelled a lot on projects together. The company paid for separate rooms since they weren't dating or married. Years later, after one of them left the company everyone learned that they had been dating without telling anyone. So the joke was that the company spenttens of thousands of dollars over the years on empty hotel rooms. If they had this website, they could've rented out a full unoccupied hotel room to a 3rd party and kept the cash. My Dad's company still would've paid for the unused rooms, but these employees could've made some money either way.
I'm sure this situation exists in the management consulting world, among others, and people would be interested in subletting out empty hotel rooms.
-
I think it's a cool idea and the target market is probably not people on CoBF. I've stayed in an AirBnB where the host was there. It was weird. My friend and I stayed there because it was the only sub $300 option in Indianapolis for the Final Four. Otherwise, I can't think of a time when I'd stay with a random person to save $30 (maybe the Berkshire meeting if I didn't have friends in town that we stay with).
That said, the typical hostel user/traveler might use this. And, i can't see how the hotels can stop you in real life. If two strangers want to share a hotel room, that seems permissible to me. The 'host' is on the hook for damage/noise fees because (s)he booked the room.
My guess is that the market for this is much, much smaller than AirBnb. For example, you can stay in a private room for $89 in NYC. That's pretty cheap. I'd rather do that than split a $150 hotel room with somebody for $75.
-
Not till I see commercials like these,
Great find. Those commercials are classics.
-
That was awesome.
-
I liked the 17 year old hedge fund manager.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0j0TWcyuGE
We surely must be approaching the top soon.
You have to grow your investments exponentially, not linearly man.
8)
Reminds me of another quote I heard on TV. It was a recording of a guy giving a seminar. The guy ran a ponzi scheme that was the subject on an expose on American Greed. It goes:
"you want to work for your money , or you want your money to work for you???"
I wish I could find people that gullible....
I'm sure most on here could find people that gullible, but then we'd have to live with ourselves...wouldn't be worth it
-
That was awesome. Really, really awesome. Thank you for posting.
I can't tell if the people interviewed seem crazy because I know how the story plays out, or if I would have looked at them the same way watching this video in 1997. I'd like to think I could have identified this bubble somewhat, but that might be naiveté.
-
Yes, RIP
-
Yes, thank you! What a fruitful message board for learning and sharing!
-
Has anyone come accross a replay of the call, or a transcript? I believe Bruce Berkowitz said they would be posting a transcript, but I have not found it.
-
That is awesome. The Onion FTW!
-
Here's another Stahl writeup. Go to page 19 for his Post Musings.
http://www.horizonkinetics.com/docs/Stahl_Report_Compendium_May_2012.pdf
-
Have you ever thought about possible unintended consequences of indexing? Today the WSJ reports that Vanguard saw inflows of $214 billion in 2014 alone. I’ve been thinking about this issue more recently. Will market dynamics change somehow as more and more “mind-less” money gets sloshed around (or is most of the money already mind-less)? Will market-cap weighted indexes add to the bubble effect and boom and bust cycles?
(For the record, I’m not against passive investing at all. It seems like a very sound strategy for many individuals with no interest or time to actively manage their investments).
I thought the same thing when reading that article last night.
-
Awesome. So, Mr. Gates bought the property in 1988 and presumably built the house in the late 80s and early 90s, right around when Microsoft came to dominate PC software... Does that mean Mr. Berkowitz's project is bullish for Fairholme? ;)
Or does the Miami structure need to be a house for this to be bullish?
Charlie Munger has spent time on projects (erected an office building, hospital Board of Directors, etc.) outside of Berkshire and DJCO, and look how that turned out.
Maybe this hobby will be good for Mr. Berkowitz
FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
in General Discussion
Posted
What are the chances Judge Sweeney was inspired by (or came as close to his language as possible without quoting) his memoranda?