BTShine
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Posts posted by BTShine
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Foreign Tuffet,
Do you have the link to the thread?
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If I had to guess, I'd think the Administration drops big news of their plan regarding the GSEs over the July 4th Holiday. Doesn't give the media much chance to go nuts over Trump "handing billions of $$$ to his buddies Paulson & Co." Journalists are on vacation and no one is reading the news while they're at their BBQ, Lake House or Boat.
Akin to Tesla dropping bad news after market close on Friday night.
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For someone that's a casual observer, is there an easy place to learn what the Moelis plan recommended? Any links to posts, blogs, etc?
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"@MarkCalabria is waiting on a plan from @USTreasury on reform for Fannie & Freddie, which he expects this summer. (one of two)"
Entire tweets and replies compiled here, or should I say his stated timeline of activity as per the reporter (video of interview awaited):
https://twitter.com/Jenniferisms/with_replies
Video is live now:
https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6035185923001/#sp=show-clips
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SRG has a higher risk reward than the others. It’s sucesss is dependent upon the development, or repurposing, of their existing property. If the current environment stays constant then SRG will outperform, but the fact is SRG is much a development company whereas the other REITs are established and stable, but I don’t think they’ll meet the potential returns of SRG if the environment stays the same.
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A crude look on google finance comparing FAIRX to the S&P 500 in the Jan 2000 - June 2002 (30 months) has Fairholme + 48% and S&P -37%. $100 turned into either $148 or $63. That's likely where the biggest difference comes from.
Approx 2.5X the S&P for the current 15 year historical starting point.
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"We are committed to a solution. Hopefully there's a bipartisan solution"
The only change I saw today was him opening the door to a non-bipartisan solution.
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At risk of either being criticized, wasting your time or worse I'd like to raise an idea.
If the GSE's go the route of raising significant capital very quickly, what is the chance of Berkshire joining the efforts? Would it be crazy to see them commit $10+ Billion to the efforts?
I've been running through the options of who can commit many billions to the effort. Banks, some hedge funds / private equity, Berkshire and a few other public companies came to mind. How else would they raise the ~$50 Billion or so if required?
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Any deal put together by Mnuchin in the next 6 months would likely bring the value of Preferred to near par.
For the Preferred there would either be 1) a payout (near par) 2) conversion into another security with par value determining the number of shares or warrants received 3) No transaction yet dividends likely to be turned back on soon (unless recapitalization done purely through earnings)
For common we likely won't know their true value until this deal from Mnuchin is announced. Will warrants continue to dilute fnma shareholders? Will overpayment from NWS be returned to each company & shareholders? Or, will a large capital infusion from shareholders be required?
The odds of a positive shareholder outcome for fnma are better, but still very murky.
Chuck Cooper is representing Fairholme and will likely be joining the administration. Has the Fairholme case against the govt been solely for preferred shareholders? Or, is he specifically fighting for common shareholders, too? If purely focused on preferreds that might keep the common shareholders less confident in the outcome.
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Thank you! Excellent.
You solved two problems for me. What to do with the measly 3,500 AAdvantage points in my account. And, how to stop paying $400 a year for the WSJ.
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Predictitt does seem to work. I know a guy that bet on Trump winning and he made multiples of his wager. Hasn't taken the money out of his account, tho. Might parlay the bet into Trump staying in office through 2017.
As for the mortgage interest deduction, I believe someone in Team Trump said they wouldn't fully eliminate it. Looks like today's limit is at $1 million for the mortgage (~$40k interest deductible). Going forward, this might be up to a $300k mortgage, so only the well off are hurt. So, that would hurt home prices in the upper price range, but not in the 'normal' home market.
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You can take the bet in another way at Predictit. Basically 1/4 that Trump is in office at end of 2017. Or 4/1 that he's not.
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Odds of impeachment or resignation during full term is 11/10 !!! Holy cow.
Odds of impeachment proceedings being brought to the House of Representatives in
2017: 7/1
2018: 9/1
2019: 16/1
2020: 20/1
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2657726
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If anyone lives in Miami and sees Bruce B. out celebrating tonight in his guayabera shirt please post a picture!
Ideally we could photoshop him in with the Mnuchin & Icahn pic
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The legal rulings and Mnuchin's moves in the Treasury office are two entirely separate things.
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Meph,
That's what it looks like to me. I'm no lawyer and have limited knowledge of the law. If this passes it seems very favorable to investors. Going retroactive at 5% would be a powerball jackpot sized win...could just be a starting point for negotiation tho
Would love to hear the thoughts of local experts Cherz, Merk and the epic PaulyMontreal
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"Does it concern you that the very first press conference by the President's team was centered on "crowd size for the inauguration" instead of anything important?"
Presumptuous and misleading question. The conference was on truth in news reporting, as evidenced by two examples of dishonest reporting. But it was clever of you to miss the forest for the trees purposefully in order to get the little jab in about it being unimportant.
Some people think truth in news reporting is important. Maybe you don't.
This resonates with me. Also, Trump seems to understand how his moves will be interpreted by the media and he may have wanted the discussion filled with a Spicer news conference instead of us talking about 1) Women's Protests 2) the Supreme Court picks he's working on
No mention of Mnuchin either. The list goes on. The media, and people in general, feed on petty chaos. Trump understands this better than most. We will see if he uses his skills for the betterment of our world.
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Looks like a big non-answer to me. Watching it live, and re-reading his comments here, I think he wanted to clarify that he didn't commit to anything. Our first assumptions on what Mnuchin would do are probably still appropriate. The Gov. stole from GSE investors and didn't honor their agreements. I believe Mr. Mnuchin can see this and will honor it.
"It is my objective to find a bipartisan solution" It's his objective, but the odds of this happening might be low and possibly the only way forward will be to use his power as Treasury Secretary to repair the problems Treasury caused with the GSEs.
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Onyx, you said it better than I could.
+1
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Meph-
Great points, and additionally he gets to say how crooked the last administration was in stealing from people (FNMA investors) and how his team looked at the internal documents "and they're BAD!!! I'd show you them but we don't want embarrass Obama and Co. too much"
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Mick Mulvaney picked for Budget Director. Trump is assembling pretty much the most GSE-friendly staff that I could possibly imagine, short of picking Berkowitz and Ackman.
Aaaaaaand another... Carl Icahn. According to CNBC and WSJ, Trump to name Carl Icahn as special advisor on regulatory overhaul; Icahn also playing role in selecting next SEC chief
These guys are going to get ripped apart by the liberal media when they do right for GSE stakeholders. Do we know if Carl Icahn still holds his stake in the GSEs?
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For the more intelligent posters on here.
Is it possible for President Obama and his crew to legally delete the emails, docs, etc on the NWS so that the Trump Team cannot see them?
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Agree with you, Wellmont. In general DJT and Mnuchin don't care what the media thinks.
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This time different? For the market overall, probably the same thing. For the GSEs? Yeah, I think this time is different. The incoming treasury secretary said these should be in the public hands. I believe he can do this on his own. No court ruling needed.
Mobile Homes
in General Discussion
Posted
In what way(s) are you considering to invest in mobile homes?